(photo: Maryland Athletics)
I will do my best to provide a daily three ball of picks for all of you snipers out there. The goal is a 2-1 night, with some 3-0’s sprinkled occasionally. I recommend you play them individually .. however, never be scared of a little three ball parlay!
Season Record: 10-6-1
12/14 Three Ball:
Maryland -2
Eastern Kentucky -5
Pepperdine -2
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Maryland -2: This is a tough play to take, considering Maryland just got their doors blown off against Clemson. However, this is the smart play based on where the line is and the analytics behind it. Typically, it is always a smart bet to take when you are laying points with an unranked team against a ranked team in college basketball. Vegas takes a lot of square money in these spots. Also, Rutgers has been very impressive to start the season. 4-0 after what would have been their first tourney birth in ages last season. However, none of these games have been played on the road. Rutgers was 2-8 straight up in true road games last season with this same group of players. I am not eager to believe that they will turn this trend around in their first attempt at a battle tested conference foe this season. To go along with the road record from the previous year, Rutgers is shooting 59% from the line and 32% from deep. Those stats are not conducive to road victories.
Score Prediction: Maryland 72 – Rutgers 67
Eastern Kentucky -5 : This is my favorite play on the card. I may even have a two unit play on this personally. To start, Eastern Kentucky is a great basketball team. They are 5-1 overall, with their only loss coming on the road in overtime to a 7-0 Xavier team. To go along with that, they are 4-1 ATS. Their lone outlier of a weird performance was against the team that they are playing tonight, Morehead State. If you look at it from afar, a 3 point home win (where you don’t cover) is something that would lead you to believe you should stay away from this spot tonight. However, after a deep dive.. we realize that this game was an anomaly. Morehead State shot it 67%!!! from the field. Like, holy shit. 67%. And still lost the game by 3 points. Why? Because they turned the ball over 27 times and shot 36% from the line. Morehead State is just a bad, bad basketball team. They average more turnovers (close to 18 per) than assists, they shoot 44% from the field even with their 67% performance, and they shoot 62% from the line. Vegas has the line here to lure betters in that don’t take a deep dive into the stats and just see the 3 point EKU victory at home from the last match-up. Eastern Kentucky rolls!
Score Prediction: Eastern Kentucky 80 – Morehead State 66
Pepperdine -2: I like this spot due to Pepperdine’s ability to push the pace and score the basketball. Currently hovering around Top 50 in pace. UNLV has struggled out of the gate with teams who play in this fashion – UNC, Alabama, etc. We all know my love for Colbey Ross, and I think he leads an inspired performance from the Waves coming off of a poor loss. This team has tourney aspirations, and cannot afford to lose another game like this with Gonzaga in their conference. Winning the conference tourney is not likely, and they know that. Also, Kessler Edwards is one of the better players that you have never heard of, and he will have a big night as well against a weak UNLV frontcourt. The Waves get a nice road win.
Score Prediction: Pepperdine 79 – UNLV 73
Best of luck! Let’s snipe this one y’all!!
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