Tough Saturday night for our 3PS community. Really thought our Illini were going to bring it home for us this year. Unfortunately, the shots just didn’t drop. Michigan also steamrolled through our 1H under even though Arizona struggled offensively like we suspected. 0-2. Even with the tough Saturday night, we still have guaranteed another winning tournament. We have yet to have a losing one since starting this! One final normal wager + one pizza play tonight. Let’s finish strong!
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4/6 Card :
UConn/Michigan under 146.5 (8:50pm ET – TBS/truTV/HBO Max) (DK)
What a second weekend it was!! We went on a scorching hot 5-1 run on Best Bets! 8-4 on the overall card for the weekend. We also added more pizza. And most importantly …. got our Illini to Indy!
It goes without saying, but this should be a phenomenal Final Four.
Current Final Four lines:
Michigan -2 vs. Arizona Illinois -1.5 vs. UConn
Would be the first time since at least 1985 where both spreads are 2 or less for the national semifinals, per ESPN Research.
Michigan and Arizona are coming into tomorrow’s action as the #3 and #4 teams in the history of the KenPom adjusted net rating database. It dates back to 1997. Illinois also is coming in rated as the highest offensive efficiency team in the history of the database. Oh, and the fourth team is going for their 3rd title in four years. What a group!
We have a chance at something really special here. This would be the 3rd time in the last four years that we have predicted the winner of the NCAA Tournament upon bracket release. We hit UConn 16-1 for Hurley’s first title. We backed Florida in the preseason last year at 60-1 and it was a no brainer to roll with them through the tournament once the bracket was released. And this year we picked the Illini at 24-1 to be our champion. This price allows y’all to begin your hedging processes if you would like. For the record, I am holding firm. This team is special. I believe in the way they are performing. I am riding with our boys.
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4/4 Card :
Illinois -1.5 (6:09pm ET – TBS/truTV/HBO Max) (Caesars)**Best Bet**
Michigan/Arizona 1H under 74 (8:49pm – TBS/truTV/HBO Max) (Caesars)
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Race to 10 – Pizza Plays (12-8 ; +6.1pizzas):
Illinois -125 (DK)
Michigan -110 (Caesars)
UnofficialIce Cream Sprinkles Play: Michigan/Arizona 1H Tie – +1500 (DK) – can find by going to Halves ; Winning Margin – Listed Half
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Our remaining tournament futures (+2.8u on these for the tourney):
Illinois title winner: +2400
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Illinois -1.5 : I predicted this exact Final Four in my bracket. In doing so, I had already thought in my mind what would go down in a potential rematch between these two teams. After watching the first two weekends, I am even more confident.
Illinois is currently rated #1 all-time in the KenPom adjusted offensive rating database. Yes, the offensive efficiency has been up across the board this season.. but this is still one of the better offenses that we have ever seen in the college game. This evolution and rise in the offensive efficiency rating actually was spawned from the beat down Illinois suffered to UConn back all of the way in November.
Illinois' most-used lineup in its loss to UConn in November:
This was a turning point for Brad Underwood and staff. Since then, Boswell’s usage has gone down significantly and Petrovic & Lee are consistent DNP’s. The emergence of Keaton Wagler and David Mirkovic has completely changed the game.
6-foot-9 power forward rejects the screen, crossover, lob for a jam.
Mirkovic excelling in the point-forward position is the reason why the Illini are on this run. His calm & poised approach to facilitating is the reason why the Illini are Top 10 in the country in not turning the ball over. Wagler also brought a much needed ball handler/scorer combo in the P&R game that frees up driving lanes for Stojakovic and lobs/easy passes to the Ivisic brothers. He can also dish the rock as well!
Illinois has been phenomenal at rebounding the basketball all season. They are 3rd in the country in offensive rebounding percentage, and 28th in the defensive. We also have already mentioned that they don’t turnover the basketball. The graphic above from CBB Analytics has been a great tool to predict success of teams in the tournament over the years. Illinois is right where we would want them to be. The only problem (if you had to nitpick) with this team for the majority of the season was on the defensive end.
#Illini David Mirkovic on defensive improvement: "During the regular season, we didn't have a hunger. And didn't take pride and sit down and guard. After the Wisconsin loss, we caught the last chance. The next loss, we go home, and don't exist anymore."
The switch was flipped after the overtime loss to Wisconsin in the Big 10 Tournament. After an up-and-down 1st round game against a majorly inferior Penn team, the Illini have held VCU to 35% from the field, Houston to 34% from the field, & Iowa to 38% from the field. Not only are they more engaged (admitted by our friend David above), but their style of defense really plays in a tournament setting when possessions are extended. Illinois does not turn opponents over because they are not gambling to get into passing lanes. They want to stay at home, pack the middle, and dare you to shoot over their length. That brings me a major reason why I believe the Illini have an edge over UConn. The Huskies just flat out cannot shoot. Since March 1st, UConn is 289th in the country in 3PT % per Barttorvik.com. They are also shooting just 29% from distance in the tournament. The Huskies can also struggle at the line. UConn is 210th in the country in free throw % (Illinois 16th). The shooting percentages of UConn will be their downfall.
I fear that a lot of possessions will look like this from UConn if they have to abandon shooting the three. Tarris Reed Jr. bully ball is not going to work against the length of Illinois in a NCAA Tournament setting. Also … **whispers** Reed is due for his patented foul trouble. If that occurs early in the 1H, this could be a wire-to-wire.
We spoke about how great the Illinois offense is. After watching the Duke tape again, UConn could be in a world of hurt on the defensive end. Illinois and Duke are not two teams that you would think about running similar action off of the top of your head, but upon rewatching some of the Duke/UConn game I saw some key action that Duke ran to success that I feel like Illinois will be able to capitalize on. Running the jumbo screen action at the top of the key to get Malachi Smith/Silas Demary Jr. trailing Wagler/Boswell/Stojakovic (like Boozer in the clip) on the way to the rim is definitely something that Illinois will look to exploit. I am not sure why Duke got away from getting Cayden driving downhill, but Jon Scheyer doesn’t have many answers for us. It was just a lot of draining the clock and then letting Cameron Boozer try to make something special happen at the end of the possession. Duke easily would be in Indy if they had stuck with their initial game plan.
Let’s face it. Duke choked that game away. They had a stranglehold against UConn and just let their foot of of the gas like a Scheyer coached team does in these moments. Illinois is the better team here. I am trusting them to get over the line like Duke could not. I also believe that the defensive scheme to have an opponent shoot over length is bad matchup for the brick throwing Huskies. Free throws will matter in a big way in a low-possession Final Four game. There is a sizable edge there as well for Illinois on those percentages. This is a Best Bet. The Illini make it to Monday.
Score Prediction: Illinois 73 – UConn 68
Michigan/Arizona 1H under 74 : A lot is said about the offensive firepower for both of these teams. Rightfully so. Truthfully, I am more in awe of their defenses. Michigan is rated #1 in the KenPom adjusted defensive rating & Arizona is 2nd. Elite.
Generating a layup against these interior defenses somehow not even a good possession. That's utterly ridiculous
Jim from 3MW points out the main reason for the success of these teams in the tweets above. You just do not get easy looks at the rim. Both had Top 15 average 2PT distance attempt rates, and both are Top 3 in 2PT % allowed.
I am intrigued by the matchup of the Arizona offense vs the Michigan defense. The Wildcats are uber elite at scoring at the rim and/or getting fouled. It is their bread and butter and they don’t stray away from it. Arizona is 363rd in the country in 3PT attempt rate. A nugget that I uncovered on KenPom makes me believe we might get a slower start that expected from these two teams from a pace perspective. While Michigan ranks 22nd in adjusted tempo, their average possession length defensively is actually 311th in the country. I think the Arizona possessions that aren’t in transition may drain the shot clock in the early going. Michigan is not going to let them easily penetrate and get what they want inside. Arizona has proven time and time again that they will not get baited into shooting a high volume of threes. It could take quite of bit of time for Arizona to find the shot they want early in this game. We actually saw a very similar scenario play out in the Elite 8 against a Purdue team that was 327th in average defensive possession length, 17th in average 2PT attempt distance, and were 318th in opponent 3PT attempt rate. Arizona only scored 31 points in the 1H before figuring things out and pouring an avalanche on the Boilermakers in the 2H.
I am backing both defenses to bring the energy in the early going. I also love the pace angle on the Arizona possessions in the 1H. Lets take the 1H under and hopefully enjoy some 2H fireworks!
If you are wanting a lean on a side in this game, it is Michigan. Only a very slight lean. Nowhere near confident enough to place a wager.Sorry to sit on the fence here. Just not many stones to turnover to find an edge.Praying for an all-time classic!
The Sweet 16 was great to us. A 3-0 run on Best Bets was exactly what we needed! We were able to finish 5-3 overall on the round. We even added a pizza! Let’s keep it rolling.
Time to turn the page towards the Elite 8. Outside of the opening two days, this is my favorite round of the tournament. The pressure/energy of the have’s/have not’s trying to earn a birth to the Final Four is truly special. Also, as much as I love a multi-view … it will be nice to go full screen! I feel really good about where the field stands. My Final Four of UConn, Illinois, Arizona, & Michigan is still intact. Hopefully our Illini can cut down the nets and bring a third ring to our community in four years!
The full Elite 8 card with a write-up is below. Plus some pizza! Appreciate all of you that stay in the grind with me. Makes all of this more fun. Now, let’s cash some tickets!
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3/28 Card :
Iowa/Illinois 1H under 65 (6:09pm ET – TBS/truTV) (Caesars)
Michigan -7.5 (2:15pm ET – CBS) (Caesars)**Best Bet**
UConn +5 (5:05pm ET – CBS)(Caesars)**Best Bet**
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Race to 10 – Pizza Plays:
Purdue +120 (Caesars)
UConn +125 (DK)
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Our remaining futures (+1.3u on these for the tourney):
Arizona to advance further than Duke: +150
Illinois title winner: +2400
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Iowa/Illinois 1H under 65 : Massive game for our Illini! The same can be said for the Hawkeyes. That is part of the reason why I think we see a sluggish start from a scoring perspective. Could be a very tight start with the way these two teams play. This game is going to be played to very few possessions. The Illini are 285th in the country in adjusted tempo and 332nd in average offensive possession length. Additionally, the Hawkeyes are are 361st in adjusted tempo and 363rd in average offensive possession length. A shit ton of late shot clock situations are on our horizon today, folks.
I also love the way these two defenses have performed recently. Illinois is coming off of allowing only 55 points twice in a row to VCU and Houston (both games under our 65 1H total today).
The points are starting to come for Illinois, but it is their defensive performance that has been by far the most impressive tonight.
26 allowed points in 29 total minutes. Houston is shooting 26% from the field and 19% from three.
Iowa is coming off of playing two run and gun teams, but I think they handled themselves well defensively. Especially down the stretch against both Florida and Nebraska. I think their defense will settle in and play much better in the 1H today with a pace that they would much rather prefer.
We saw a 1H score of 35-24 in favor of Illinois in Carver-Hawkeye earlier this season. I think we are hovering around that 60 point mark again in today’s 1H. Give us the under.
Score Prediction: 1H Illinois 32 – Iowa 30
Purdue +6 : This is scary. Don’t get me wrong. Arizona looks like a freight train right now. However, this is simply the right play from a data point / playstyle standpoint. Arkansas was an absolute dream matchup for Arizona. That is why we laid the points with the Wildcats in the Sweet 16. The Hogs run it like they are on an AAU circuit, and are flat out one of the worst 2PT defensive teams in the country. Arizona scored 109 points going 5-8 from distance. Just think about that for a second. 94 points from the free throw line and inside the arc. It will be a different story today.
Purdue will not get baited into a frenetic pace in this game. Braden Smith is one of the best point guards that we have ever had in the college game, and he will ensure that the Boilermakers play close to their 325th rated adjusted tempo. That will be key in ensuring that Purdue is not getting blown away in transition. That is important to note because the Boilermakers are Top 50 in the country in opponent transition frequency per ShotQuality. Keeping Arizona out of transition is a big key in keeping a game competitive against the Wildcats. Purdue is also one of the better teams in the country in not allowing rim runs. SQ shows they are 10th in the country in frequency of shots at the rim by their opponents. Purdue wants to bait their opponents to shoot threes with a close out defender on the way. Arizona is certainly capable of hitting outside shots, but will they want to get out of their normal playstyle? The Wildcats are 363rd in the country in 3PT attempt rate. I believe that Arizona will still find success in the halfcourt (this team is fucking awesome), but I believe that Purdue stylistically has a great chance to be competitive. Especially when you consider the Boilermakers still have the #1 rated KenPom offense for the season. The short term looks great too as you can see below from our friends at CBB Analytics (posted 3/26):
Purdue is a veteran team. Many of these players have seen a Final Four and a national title game. The moment will not be too big for them. This is a team that is also hot after rolling through the Big 10 conference tournament. A conference which has proven to be the best in the country after the way the tournament has shaken out. I love the profile to keep this game close. I do ultimately think that Arizona gets through this stressful test that Purdue will present, but give us the points in what will be a tight finish.
Score Prediction: Arizona 79 – Purdue 75
Michigan -7.5 : Kicking myself for not having the stones to back the Vols yesterday. I saw that result coming with a lot of the stylistic tendencies with Joshua Jefferson off of the floor for Iowa State. I just had too much respect for the Cyclones to go all in and place a wager on Tennessee. Credit to Rick Barnes for silencing some of his haters (me at times) by finally winning a 2nd weekend game as an underdog. Fun to see.
It was a great performance from Tennessee, but unfortunately the muscle that they used against Iowa State will fall flat tomorrow against the Wolverines. The Vols doubled up Iowa State in offensive rebounds and second chance points. Largely due to Iowa State playing undersized Nate Heise with the large bulk of what would have been Jefferson’s minutes. Michigan will certainly not have that problem. The Wolverines are 9th in the country in effective height. They will hold their own on the glass with Tennessee.
Without Tennessee’s greatest strength at their disposal, I don’t see many paths to victory in this game. The Wolverines are coming into tomorrow with the #1 rated defense on KenPom. If Tennessee’s second chance points are not in play at a premium, that is where their 143rd rated effective FG % and 235th rated turnover % rear their ugly heads. The shooting data is also really bad when you break it out. 175th in 3PT%, 149th in 2PT %, 287th (!!!) in FT %. I just cannot see how Tennessee will score efficiently enough to keep this game competitive against the best defense in the country. Especially when they aren’t a high variance 3PT shooting team that can flip a game upside down. The Vols are 329th in the country in 3PT rate.
Michigan early and often here. My favorite matchup of the Elite 8 round. Best Bet.
Score Prediction: Michigan 82 – Tennessee 67
UConn +5 : It feels like overkill to have two plays on Sunday and both being labeled as **Best Bets**, but that is how highly I rate these wagers. They just so happen to be played on the same day in the Elite 8. UConn is very live to win this game.
The Huskies have started to make some threes! This is the major area that was lacking down the stretch when UConn had struggled. Karaban, Ball and Mullins all making at least two three pointers each last night was crucial in getting this team across the finish line against a really good Michigan State team. If the Huskies hit 9 threes (or more) against Duke like they did last night, personal guarantee from 3PS that they win this game.
Duke is definitely showing cracks in the armor down the stretch. The turnover bug is becoming a big problem. The Blue Devils are now 124th in the country in turnover % after allowing 26 turnovers over the last two games. The TCU and St. John’s full-court heat really made the Blue Devils panic. So much so that Scheyer was forced into playing Caleb Foster 19 minutes last night to steady the ship.
The heavy ice and scooter is not a great sign for me. This could definitely be preventative and not reactive. I get that. But I still have a hard time believing that Caleb Foster will be able to be influential for the the 2nd game in 3 days dealing with this issue. Hurley and his incredible staff will certainly take note of how Cayden Boozer and the Blue Devils have dealt with intense on/off ball pressure this tournament. You can believe the heat will be turned up again today. Kinda related – kinda not related: Ngongba also is NOT healthy. This is not the same player that we saw in the regular season. These two guys being banged up is finally going to catch up with Duke here.
A big blemish on the UConn resume is their FT%. They are only 209th in the country in that regard. We don’t have to worry about a huge discrepancy in that area in this matchup though. Duke is only 175th and was 15-24 against St. Johns. I know this is where Duke has been buttering their bread in this tournament with an enormous amount of FT attempts, but I think UConn has a great chance to get close to Duke in this category today.
The UConn defense is the final feather in the cap for this handicap. The Huskies are rated as the 6th best defense in the country according to Shot Quality. SQ also ranks them 4th in shots attacking the rim (important for Boozer) and 9th against 3PT shooting. I think that Duke has been so “Boozer Bully Ball” reliant in this tournament that the best coaching staff in the country will be able to defensively scheme this game into a UConn victory. Give us the points, but this will be the upset of the Elite 8.
Welp, 10-10 on our plays through R64 & R32. Our worst start to a tournament since we started this in 2020. Bummer. The Achilles heel was our mid-major underdogs. The betting handles were completely out of control and the data points made sense. It just wasn’t meant to be. Thankfully, we were able to acquire 4.9 pizzas on our Race to 10 plays!
It is time to flip the page with eyes to the Sweet 16. We have some AWESOME matchups in this round. I believe that I have found many edges in this round from a capping perspective. I was happy to see that my friend, Max Hofmeyer, was in agreeance with the majority of the plays that I see on the board for Thursday & Friday. We took the time and broke down every single game for the Sweet 16 in the YouTube video below. This video will be my “write-up” for the round. Will be back with a blog for the Elite 8. Please check out our video if you get the chance & like/subscribe. My card for Thursday & Friday is listed below the video. There will be another add or two come tomorrow or Friday. Waiting on a few more things on those before I jump in. Let’s get hot!
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3/26 Card :
Texas/Purdue over 147.5 (7:10pm ET – CBS) (FD) **Best Bet**
2-2 day yesterday with a Best Bet cashed. Glad we got the Best Bet home, but still not good enough. I know we are going to catch fire per usual… I am just ready for it to happen already. Today’s card is below – 2 Best Bets! Pizza included as well – bad day for pizza yesterday, but ready to have a pizza party today. No write-up, but making up for it with a surprise early this week.
Also, please send good vibes for The Arsenal. Fuck Man City. On the way to the pub as we speak. Let’s have a day!
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3/22 Card :
Kansas +3.5 (5:15pm ET – CBS) (Caesars) **Best Bet**
Iowa +10.5 (7:10pm – CBS) (Caesars)
Utah State 1H +7 (7:50pm – truTV)(Caesars)
UConn -4.5 (8:45pm – TNT) (FD)
Texas Tech ML -110 (9:45pm – TBS) (MGM) **Best Bet**
Tough day yesterday. Akron and Northern Iowa were outmatched. As simple as that. I thought they had the coaching and matchup edges to hang close, but that was not the case. 2-1 outside of those. The loss was Kansas having a 26 point 2H lead dwindle to single digits in the blink of an eye. Annoying. The 2-3 day brings us to 5-6 for the tournament. Only halfway through the weekend. Still plenty of time to get hot. Speaking of, the Race to 10 plays are still hot and ready! 7-1 on those. +9.23 pizzas. That is carrying the slow start to the pre-game plays. 4 pack of normal plays and pizza plays. Let’s have a day!
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3/21 Card :
Louisville +5.5 (2:45pm ET – CBS) (DK)
Duke -11.5 (5:15pm – CBS) (FD)**Best Bet**
Texas A&M +11 (6:10pm – TNT) (Caesars)
Nebraska 1H +.5 (7:25pm – TBS) (Caesars)
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Race to 10 – Pizza Plays: BOOM!!! We continue to roll with these! 7-1. We are staying hot and ready. Pizza Pizza!
Louisville +114 (FD)
Duke -230 (DK)
Texas +126 (FD)
Nebraska -106 (FD)
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**More brief write-up than normal. Busy morning**
Louisville +5.5 : This is a very interesting matchup. Two completely different strengths going at one another. Michigan State is going to own the glass. Louisville is going to own the 3PT differential. The problem that I have with Sparty in this game is that they have lost the 3PT differential battle in all of their 7 losses this year. Louisville has won many games where they have lost the rebounding edge. Michigan State is 343rd in opponent 3PT rate. Louisville is 4th in 3PT rate. The Big 10 has two teams that are also in the Top 10 in 3PT rate, Nebraska and Wisconsin. Michigan State has lost to both this year. Nebraska made 13 threes on them, and Wisconsin made 15. I think the 3PT line keeps Louisville around long enough to cover this spread. Would not shock me to see an upset here.
Score Prediction: Michigan State 76 – Louisville 74
Duke -11.5 : I think this is a really poor matchup for TCU. The Horned Frogs have found their form down the stretch by out muscling their opponents. That won’t happen today. David Punch is unfortunately going up against Cameron Boozer. That is a matchup kryptonite. This is going to neutralize the only offensive threat that TCU has. Especially when the likes of Dame Sarr are attached at the hip to Micah Robinson. The Horned Frogs are a poor shooting team & Duke’s #1 rated KenPom defense is going to swallow this team whole. The lack of backcourt scoring will be the final dagger here. It will be a long day for Brock Harding and Jayden Pierre. Duke comes out and makes a statement today. Best Bet.
Score Prediction: Duke 75 – TCU 58
Texas A&M +11 : The Aggies did just as we expected in the first round of the tournament. They flushed that horrible SECT performance and came out and made life hell for the Saint Mary’s Gaels. A&M was able to force 18 turnovers in the game. Houston is much better at protecting the ball than Saint Mary’s, but I believe that this defensive pressure can speed the Coogs up out of their desired tempo and get this game more up and down than they would prefer. With the shooting prowess of the Aggies (52nd in 3PT % – 42nd in rate), I think that a faster tempo game could suit them well. It is also a feather in the cap that the Aggies are Top 50 in turnover % offensively. They shouldn’t get overwhelmed in the turnover margin like a normal Houston opponent does. I think they have several different defenders that Flemings will have to deal with today. That is also a good thing. I don’t see an upset here, but I think we can cover the 11.
Score Prediction: Houston 75 – Texas A&M 67
Nebraska 1H +.5 : This is going to be a home game for the Huskers.
Around 10,000 Nebraska fans showed up in OKC to see the Huskers win its first-ever NCAA Tournament game.
This atmosphere above was for an 11:40am local time tip. It is going to be even crazier today for the 7:45pm local tip for a chance a the first Sweet 16 in school history. I think this juice can help them get out to a hot start. Especially with Sandfort in this form. I also love the way that Nebraska defended. That is going to be the key in covering this 1H spread. Vanderbilt actually struggled more than I thought with the McNeese pressure. The Nebraska extended defense could give them some trouble early on in this game. I am not going full game out of my respect for Tanner and Byington, but I think we enter halftime with a lead here.
A pretty decent first day to the tournament! 3-3 overall, but we did cash the Best Bet. 11-4 on Best Bets in the month of March. Als0, we went scorched earth on our Race to 10 pizza plays. 4-0 sweep. I received some messages of people that parlayed all four and won big. I definitely don’t recommend that, but good for you guys haha! I feel really good about our card & Race to 10’s today. Unfortunately, no write-up today as planned so I can finish up work by Noon to settle in for the action. Will have one ready to go for Saturday and Sunday’s card. I did share my thoughts on a few of these games in the YouTube video below if you would like to check it out:
I had a big fancy blog written out for you guys with all of the data and graphics to support this pick.. but Word Press has lost my draft. Nowhere to be found. It is my fault for not backing it up elsewhere, but damn! Whatever though.. the tournament is getting started in about an hour. Most of y’all probably wouldn’t have the time to read anyways. Let’s fire away!!!
The Big Dance is finally here! I hope you all enjoyed my NCAA Tournament preview. If you missed it, just refresh to the home page and you will find it there. I am excited to build on the reputation we have built in March. 90-60 (60%) over the last three years in the tournament overall. 11-4 on Best Bets last tournament. Ready to keep it rolling! Six plays on the card tomorrow & some Race to 10 Pizza plays. Scroll to the bottom for the write-up. See y’all tomorrow at 11am for my national title pick!
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3/19 Card :
Troy +13.5 (12:40pm ET – truTV) (Caesars) +
Vanderbilt -11.5 -102 (3:15pm ET – truTV) (FD)
Michigan State -16 (4:05pm – TNT) (Caesars)**Best Bet** +
Texas A&M +2.5(7:35pm – truTV) (DK) +
UGA -2.5 -102 (9:45pm – CBS) (DK)
Houston -21.5 (10:10pm – CBSSN) (truTV) +
+ given on Sunday night
Race to 10 – Pizza Plays: For the new 3PS community members, this is a Race to 10 bet. As simple as it sounds. The first team to 10 points wins. Make this wager size very small – hence the pizza money name we have attached to it. We usually do pretty well, but it is simply for fun! Played all of these at DK.
Troy +165
Louisville -150
Kennesaw State +260
Texas -110
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Troy +13.5 ; Michigan State -16 ; Texas A&M +2.5 ; Houston -21.5 : Most of you have heard my thoughts on these games. If you haven’t, please head over to the link below and listen to Max Hofmeyer and I break these games down. He has time stamped every game so you can skip through to the specific ones you would like to hear more on if you would like. Just do me a favor & like/subscribe for him. He’s been working hard on these and does a great job!
Score Prediction: Nebraska 74 – Troy 65
Score Prediction: Michigan State 84 – NDSU 61
Score Prediction: Texas A&M 72 – Saint Mary’s 68
Score Prediction: Houston 82 – Idaho 54
Vanderbilt -11.5 : I spoke about this matchup in the video above as well, but wanted to get the typing fingers working a little bit for you guys. I stated that I was likely getting to the window later in the week, and that is the case. Just locked this one in. Let’s get into why I love the Commodores here.
As mentioned in the video, McNeese’s path to success is turning their opponents over and creating havoc. #1 in the country in opponent turnover percentage. That is just simply a strength that they cannot impose onto Vanderbilt. While the Commodores get get up & down at times (Top 100 in pace), they just don’t make many mistakes. Vanderbilt is 11th in the country in turnover percentage. Tyler Tanner is a dynamite ball handler. It has been awesome to see the leap his has taken in his sophomore season. A Nashville area kid that is now getting some All-American (I voted him 3rd-Team at USBWA) recognition at Vanderbilt. Awesome story.
There are two other key metrics that lead me to believe McNeese has no chance in this game. If they are not turning over Vanderbilt while being completely outclassed in talent, then they will need to have a crazy performance on the glass and/or from the three point line. Bad news. They suck ass in both of these categories. The Cowboys are 299th in 3PT % & 339th in the country in defensive rebounding percentage. Lastly, here is a fun graphic from Evanmiya.com
(credit: Evanmiya.com)
This team ranks really low in be able to punch above their weight class. The two tournament teams that the Cowboys played this year in the non-con handled them with ease. I am backing the Commodores to win comfortably here.
Score Prediction: Vanderbilt 82 – McNeese 65
Georgia -2.5 : Can Saint Louis flip the switch and find their form? I am not so sure.
Notable teams that are rated higher in the last month than their opponent in the Round of 64 according to BartTorvik.
26 USF > 28 Louisville 29 VCU > 39 North Carolina 30 Santa Clara > 32 Kentucky 36 Utah State > 57 Villanova 38 Iowa > 46 Clemson 31 Georgia > 150 St Louis
Saint Louis has struggled big time since mid-February. The Billikens have been the 150th ranked team in the country since that time per BartTorvik. It is also no surprise that the Billikens are entering this year’s tournament dead last in momentum per Haslametrics.com after the way they started this season. It is unfathomable that this offense has failed to reach 70 points in three (all losses) out of their last six games, but that is where we are. I have to go with what SLU is showing us they are in their current state.
This game could be an absolute track meet. UGA is 16th & Saint Louis is 21st in adjusted tempo on KenPom. This is where I believe the edge is. Much like Vanderbilt that we discussed in the previous section, Georgia does not turn the ball over. They are 31st in the country in turnover percentage, and 5th in the country in non-steal turnover percentage. The Billikens struggle in this department. 230th in the country in turnover percentage. They also struggle in turning opponents over & rank 218th in that department. In a high possession game, I could see UGA really dominating the turnover battle and getting a ton of buckets/free throws in transition. Also, Saint Louis doesn’t have the roster to take advantage of UGA’s biggest weakness, the defensive glass. The Dawgs are 336rd in the country in this department, but the Billikens are undersized and are only 161st in offensive rebounding percentage. Georgia has the athleticism edge by a mile as well. There is not a soul on Saint Louis that matches up well with Kanon Catchings.
Serious shotmaking, 32 points from Kanon Catchings last night in a W vs. Alabama. Very smooth perimeter game for a 6-9 wing. Goal next year to create more rim pressure, FTAs. pic.twitter.com/BYW4FXuPz5
There is just so much to like from a matchup perspective with Georgia here. I am also trusting Saint Louis telling me what they are in their current state. I know it would be a blast to finally back Josh Schertz and Robbie Avila in the NCAA Tournament, but have to be a Grinch here. Go Dawgs.
Welcome to the 2026 Three Point Sniper NCAA Tournament Preview!
It’s finally here, fellas! This is truly the best time of the year and I can’t wait to watch these games unfold over the coming days. We are rolling into the tournament just how we would want. 10-4 on Best Bets in March. This is a good omen as we were 11-4 on Best Bets in the tournament last season! Over the last three tournaments, we are 90-60 (60%) overall on all plays. We have been able to take it to that extra gear every time, and I hope we are able to do it again!
There is no perfect science when it comes to this tournament. That is why we love it. I just hope that the preview below is a tool that you can use to put your best foot forward with brackets, pools, etc. I will certainly be using it for handicapping. Hopefully we are on the right track with the analytics backing our decision making.
Three Ball Write-Up Schedule (subject to change):
Thursday’s full card will drop Wednesday PM with a write-up
Friday’s write-up will be released Friday AM
Saturday’s write-up will be released Saturday AM
Sunday’s write-up will be released Saturday PM
**For those who are new here … get on a fasting diet now to prepare yourself for the PIZZA!
If you would like to leave a thank you now or in the future, the tip jar is below. Not required, always appreciated!
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Region Breakdowns
East Region: Man, this region is a bear.
Scheyer, Izzo, Pitino, Hurley and Self in one region? Sheesh.
Outside of the phenomenal coaching pedigree, we have some analytical darlings everywhere in this region. The 8 seed Ohio State team that Duke could potentially be facing in the R32 is rated 22nd at EvanMiya.com. You will see below in the 3PS Seed Matrix as well, but Louisville is a nasty 6 seed that doesn’t even get discussed when you get lost in the coaching pedigree discussion. That team is dangerous as hell with a seemingly healthy Mikel Brown Jr.
Ryan Conwell knows Mikel Brown Jr. is the missing link to Louisville's NCAA Tournament runhttps://t.co/CFy0JWAf7w
I fully believe Mikel Brown Jr. will be playing (not fully cleared yet) from reading the tea leaves over the last week. (Update: 3/18 11:15am – Mikel Brown Jr. has been ruled out. Womp Womp). Also, the winner of KU/SJU is an intriguing matchup for Duke. Both present their own problems for the Blue Devils. Especially if Ngongba is still hampered. Tough, tough 4/5 draw. I think bottom of this region sets up quite nicely for UConn as the 2. The Huskies blew their 1 seed chance by embarrassing themselves against the Johnnies, but their draw to start in Philly gives them a great chance to find their form to try to roll through this region to Indy.
Max Hofmeyer and I broke down every single R64 matchup from the East & South region. Please give us a listen and like/subscribe if you can!
South Region:
This region is being touted as having the toughest 2 and 3 seed that we have in the field. For good reason.
(photo: kenpom.com)
As you can see above, KenPom’s predictive ratings have Florida, Houston & Illinois all with a similar chance of representing this region in Indianapolis. There are very logical pathways that could lead you to pick any of these three horses as your Final Four pick. I am not going to try to steer you in a certain direction other than stating the fact that Illinois is on the same level as these teams. View them in that light when breaking down your matchups. The KenPom net rating of Houston is 33.43 and Illinois is 32.10 (UF – 33.79). Illinois is actually rated higher than Houston in the 3PS Seed Matrix (keep scrolling). There is an extremely big caveat though. The South Region will be playing their Sweet 16 and Elite 8 games at the Toyota Center in Houston, TX. While Illinois is analytically on the same level as Houston, can you stomach picking against the Coogs in their hometown in the Sweet 16? That is up to you to decide!
This region also features the shortest spread that we have with a big seed variance. The 11 seeded VCU Rams are 2.5 point underdogs to the 6 seeded Tar Heels. I shared my thoughts on this game and the other R64 matchups from this region in the YouTube video in the previous section. Check it out!
West Region:
Let’s go to Haslametrics.com to see probabilities for this region.
This region was a bummer for me to be honest. Not because of the quality. The quality is CERTAINTLY here. I was just highly disappointed that Wisconsin and Arkansas will meet immediately in the R32 if they get past their first round games. I think it would have been fun for both of these teams to have a shot at the Sweet 16 with their styles of play. Both are fun watches. I also think it is a bummer that they are matched up with Arizona as their 1. I know it would be fun to pick one of the Hogs or Badgers to go on a run, but I just don’t see either getting by the Wildcats. We have some intriguing R1 matchups in this region. Utah State has the chance to rid the Mountain West of some demons by catching a banged up Villanova team traveling to San Diego. The Aggies obviously have familiarly with Viejas and it could be a slight edge? Another surprise was to see the 10 seed Missouri be slotted into the Saint Louis first weekend regional. Tough break for the 7 seed Miami who will essentially be playing in a road atmosphere. Purdue always travels well and will bring their own noise, so I don’t worry about them in the R32 should they face Mizzou .. but again, just a tough tough break in the R64 for Miami. BYU vs the winner of Texas/NC State will be fireworks. Little to no defense in that one. This region features the best chance at a 1 vs 2 seed Elite 8 matchup in my opinion. I believe we will see Purdue trying to knock off Arizona for a “hometown” (60ish miles) Final Four trip.
Midwest Region:
Alabama coach Nate Oats addressed Aden Holloway's status a little while ago during his weekly appearance on the 'Hey Coach" radio show:
"We're preparing to play without him this weekend," Oats said.
Have to start here when discussing this Midwest Region. Alabama will be without Aden Holloway for the first weekend of the tournament, and likely the rest of the way should they advance. This is fantastic news for Michigan fans/backers. An Elite 8 trip for the Wolverines looks HIGHLY likely with JT Toppin and Aden Holloway not being in the mix for Texas Tech and Alabama. The books have priced the Elite 8 odds for Michigan even higher than the open. They now sit at -380 to make the Elite 8 at DraftKings. Don’t try to get cute here in your bracket. Advance the Wolverines to this point at minimum. Speaking of Texas Tech and Alabama.. these teams are having to go against two of the best mid-major teams in this year’s tournament. Akron and Hofstra are the real deal.
I want to take the Akron-Hofstra double upset so badly but not sure if I will pull trig
We are all Jake Marsh! It is not a hot take at all, but I will say that we will likely get an upset here in this 5/12 – 4/13 mini bracket. Not the double upset, but I truly believe that one of these two teams could fall in Tampa.
There is a 63% chance we have a 12-seed upset over a 5-seed this year.
The most likely culprit is Akron, with a 29% chance of beating Texas Tech. The JT Toppin injury gives Akron a much better chance than if Tech were fully healthy.
It is worth noting that Evanmiya.com’s projections believe Akron has the best chance at the infamous 12-5 upset this season. His site projects that there is a 63% of one of the 12-5 upsets occurring in this year’s tournament.
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Three Point Sniper Seed Matrix
The Three Point Sniper Seed Matrix is something that I mixed up in the lab last year. It was very helpful in carrying us to another successful NCAA Tournament. In this section we are going to uncover who is seeded improperly based on several industry power ratings mixed with my own personal power ratings that I use for handicapping. The secret sauce formula worked well last year. I am rolling with it again. This will help you with picking upsets in your bracket + selecting who to fade from a betting perspective. It will also identify teams that we can take round futures on (S16, E8, F4).. Uh, hello Illini. I have compared the 3Ps Seed Matrix against the 1-64 seeds released by the committee to see where the biggest variances are. Here is what I uncovered:
Side Note: The variances aren’t nearly as wild as last year. Good job, committee. Even if the sport handed it to you this year!
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Tournament Round Futures
Arizona to advance further than Duke +150 (DK): It is simple. I think Arizona is the more complete team & I believe they have the better regional draw.
Kansas – Elite Eight +650 (DK): Going against the 3PS Seed Matrix in a big way here. Apologies to myself. I think St. John’s could potentially be on upset alert in the R64 with a weird UNI matchup. But, if these two meet.. I personally like Kansas. Then it is Kansas vs Duke for the +650. Could hedge or go for it all. I’ll take the longshot dart throw here with Bell Self leading us.
Illinois – Elite Eight +160 (FD): Have to ride with the 3Ps Seed Matrix after the disrespect of the secret sauce from the previous play. Illinois to the Elite 8!
UConn – Elite Eight +170 (DK): Love the draw for the Huskies. Great price here at DK.
Louisville – Sweet 16 +200 (FD): Different team with Mikel Brown Jr. I am jumping ahead of him being officially cleared and trusting (hoping) that it will happen. Analytical darling. Will take the stab here. (Update: 3/18 11:15am – Mikel Brown Jr. has been ruled out. Not good, but in Ryan Conwell we trust!)
Title Pick: Coming Thursday 11am – explanation below
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Pre-Season Futures Update:
Here is a look at our pre-season tickets & where they sit today:
Kentucky +1600 (now: +20000): Missed the mark here. Clearly. The Jaland Lowe injury ended up being much, much worse than was reported in the preseason. We never saw a healthy game from him this season before he shut it down for the year. Same story with Jayden Quaintance. With the slow start + the absence of their two best players on paper, this ticket sadly died months ago.
Houston +1000 (now: +1000): No change in price from the preseason. Still feel really good about having a Houston ticket. Especially with the hometown draw for the S16 & Elite 8. Gotta love that.
Gonzaga +4500 (+6000): The fluctuation on this price from the pre-season until now has been crazy. I believe this got as low as +1300 at the beginning of January before the injury to Braden Huff. That pretty much derailed the Zags season as a title contender. The only loss that the Zags suffered with Huff in the lineup was to Michigan when they went scorched earth on the Players Era field in Vegas. He may try to come back should they make it to the 2nd weekend, but I highly doubt it.
Virginia +13000 (+6500): Got double the current price in the preseason. Great find here. This number was actually better prior to the bracket release. The books do not love the draw for the Hoos despite the incredible run through the ACCT & rising to #9 in the AP and #13 in KenPom.
This was not a fantastic year for my title futures portfolio. Especially coming off of nailing Florida 60-1 a year ago. For those that are new here, we actually had pre-season dueling Florida 60-1 and Houston 15-1 title tickets for the national title game last year. We were guaranteed to get paid to watch that phenomenal game. Will never forget it. But, this year’s preseason portfolio has let us down a tad. Have to put the hand up and admit that. In more exciting news, we will be locking in my title pick for our last title future on Thursday around 11am (sorry, need to preserve leverage on my pools for as long as possible haha!). Stay tuned and have the notifications on! This is when we picked the UConn 16-1 ticket back in 2023.
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Fun Tweets Section
Below are some tweets that I have pulled from my timeline that should be a part of your thought process as you go throughout this first week of the tournament.
threepointsniper.com 