3-3 yesterday. Add Valpo to the list of “How in the fuck did we not cover that spread”. Covering the entire game until the very last seconds for us to lose by a hook. DePaul also let us down late. 5-1 was there for the taking, and we get a 3-3 shit sandwich once again. Here’s to hoping this turns soon. REAL soon.
Back in action! Appreciate those that checked in. All is well. Just was feeling frustrated with how the capping was going over the last few weeks and wanted to take a break for several days. The mind is clear and we are ready to rock. Three-pack tonight. Eyeing many for tomorrow. Let’s get back to the winning ways.
Some early adds for the 12/13 Card are below. Will have a few more tonight and/or tomorrow AM. Brief thoughts below on the early adds:
12/13 Card :
Illinois -9 (4:00pm – Peacock) (Caesars) – The shooting splits are going to catch up with Nebraska at some point. Their first road game of the year against an elite roster feels like the time that occurs. The Cornhuskers are 362nd in opponent three point rate allowed. Those opponents are only shooting 29%, however. Shot Quality shows nearly 5% of regression should be coming their way. The Balkan Five have the ability to take advantage of this. Also, love the Illini in the frontcourt matchup here. I will lay the heavy number in a ranked matchup.
Score Prediction: Illinois 86 – Nebraska 72
NC State -1.5 (5:30pm – ESPN) (DK) **Best Bet** – This is an ultra home court spot from a handicapping perspective. The Lenovo Center is going to be rocking with Will Wade welcoming his first ranked opponent to Raleigh. This fan base has been thirsting for this type of buzz around the program. It will be fiery. The Kansas defense is due for some of the heaviest regression in the Shot Quality matrix. They are allowing 0.95 PPP and their SQ PPP allowed sits at 1.13. Seems like the perfect time for the Regression Monster to show his teeth. Best Bet.
Score Prediction: NC State 80 – Kansas 73
Kentucky -4 (6:30pm – ESPN) (Caesars) – I know guys, I know. No need to blast me in the replies for this. I get it & completely understand if you do not tail this pick. They have given you no reason to. However, my handicapping has this Kentucky -7. Indiana does not have the ability to wear out the Cats in the post as we have seen Michigan State, UNC and Gonzaga do recently. Reed Bailey is not that guy. Indiana also failed in their first road game of the season pretty miserably with a loss at Minnesota. I do not have faith in them coming into Rupp with the fan base making an emphasis on social media to lift this team up tomorrow. The Cats get a win they desperately need here.
Score Prediction: Kentucky 82 – Indiana 75
Maryland +20 (8:0pm – FOX)(Caesars) – This number is simply too bloated. Michigan is an absolute freight train, but laying 20 at the Xfinity Center against a Buzz Williams coached team is a step too far. Michigan won by 4 points at TCU in their only road game of the season to this point. They have not proven to be immortal on the road to this point as they have at the Crisler Center and on neutrals. The Terps are 4th in the country in free throw rate. I love having that in our pocket in this matchup. We will need points where we can get them. Solo Washington and Pharrel Payne should also be able to compete on the glass enough to keep us within 20 here.
Score Prediction: Michigan 83 – Maryland 67
Alabama +1.5 (9:30pm – ESPN)(Caesars) – The matchup with the Alabama and Arizona will be played in Birmingham. This should still be a rocking Crimson Tide atmosphere. It will feel pretty damn close to a home game. Arizona is coming into tomorrow’s game 363rd in the country in 3PT rate. This is going to be a huge clash of styles with Alabama sitting at 7th. Trading twos for threes can get away from you in a hostile road environment. Can Arizona make enough outside shots to stay in this one? I am not so sure. The Wildcats have a monster win over UConn in their only road game of the year to this point, but Tarris Reed and Braylon Mullins did not feature for the Huskies. I believe this is the first slip up of the year for Arizona. Nate Oats adds another signature win to his resume. This is the 2nd Best Bet.
Idaho/Notre Dame over 142.5 (7:00pm – ACC Extra) (Caesars)**Best Bet*
Wisconsin +2 (9:00pm – BTN) (Caesars)
Can’t shake the bad juju following us around for several weeks now. Last night was more of the same. From Clemson blowing a 22 point halftime lead & nearly smoking our +6.5 … to Tomi Ivisic nailing the front of the rim on a 3 and the ball soaring in the air and falling back in to seal it for Illinois … to 85% Solo Ball having a free throw to cover and give us a 2-1 night and it clanking. It feels like it is a nightly occurrence. Just waiting for the grim reaper to show up and wash away our winning positions. We have had a season’s worth of this shit already. I am just going to keep with the process. Appreciate the real ones that have been here for years and know this is just a blip on the radar. We will get it right.
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Idaho/Notre Dame over 142.5 : You have to feel for the Irish. Notre Dame has been slowly (emphasis on slowly) improving during Micah Shrewsberry’s time in South Bend. They have gone from KenPom 118 in year one, to 98 last year, to 62nd as of today. Notre Dame has also just beaten Missouri and TCU for some excellent non-con wins to add to their resume. And then…
NEWS: Notre Dame’s Markus Burton will undergo ankle surgery on Wednesday and has no timetable for a return, per release.
This is a huge loss for the Irish. Burton finished the 24/25 season 11th in the country in usage, and was hovering around the Top 30 this season. While this will be bad for Notre Dame from a team success perspective, I believe it offers us an opportunity to attack a total angle in short term before the markets catch up with how the offense will operate. The Markus Burton usage is centered around ISO and off-screen driving to the bucket. He only has 11 made threes in 10 games played this season. This should open up the pace a bit without any player of Burton’s type on the roster to take over this role. Notre Dame has two of the better shooters in the country in Braeden Shrewsberry and Cole Certa. The offense, in my opinion, should be getting them early and often looks from behind the arc. I think we see that today.
The Irish playing a bit faster today is important for the matchup we have here against Idaho. The Vandals are now 2nd in the country in 3pt rate. Shooting even more threes than they were a year ago. Notre Dame is 269th in defensive three point rate allowed & are not fantastic at guarding the perimeter. They are 166th in the country in 3pt% allowed. Shot Quality shows it should even be a bit worse. The more threes we get up in this game from both teams, the better.
I expect double digit threes here from both teams. Also, a bit of a faster pace game than you would expect on paper with the KenPom adjusted tempo. Give us the over. Best Bet.
Score Prediction:Notre Dame 78 – Idaho 69
Wisconsin +2 : The nation’s longest win streak ends tonight. The Cornhuskers are rolling into tonight’s matchup on a 13 game win streak dating back to The Crown title that last year’s team took home. They are rightfully a 2pt favorite tonight with Big 10 home court in their favor. We will gladly take advantage of this market price.
The Badgers had a pretty big wake-up call a few weeks ago against BYU after a sleepy non-con schedule to start the year. Wisconsin got absolutely thrown around in Salt Lake City by the Cougars. Since then, this team has responded in a huge way. Dominant wins over Marquette, Northwestern and Providence followed. There was one loss to TCU mixed in there, but it was graded a SQ win and was against a TCU team playing out of their minds in San Diego following their upset of Florida. I can look past that one pretty easily. The metrics are there with this team.
This Shot Quality profile is one to drool over. The Badgers have the above statistics in their tool belt while also scoring 1.23 SQ PP and only allowing 1.00 SQ PPP. The 3PT frequency is something that I want to focus on. Nebraska is 362nd in the country in 3PT rate allowed this year. Shot Quality shows they should be allowing 37% on those. High quality threes being allowed to this Badgers team is a recipe for success for us tonight. John Blackwell is already at 29 made threes on the year, and the Badgers also have 4 other guys in double figures. Another angle I am looking at here is second chance points. Wisconsin is 11th in the country in keeping opponents off of the offensive glass. Nolan Winter is a monster on the boards. The Cornhuskers are 293rd in the country in obtaining offensive rebounds. The second chance points should be heavily in Wisconsin’s favor with Nebraska’s odds of getting a sizeable amount being slim.
I like backing Wisconsin as a short road dog here. Let’s snap the Nebraska streak.
FINALLY!!!! This shit might be finally turning back our way, fellas. What a monster day we had yesterday! Let’s build on it today. Long way to go to get back to where we need to be. Let’s finish the week strong.
Write-Up coming for Tuesday’s card. Likely no plays tomorrow on the short slate.
I am in love with this card today. That may be a bad thing with how things are going. I understand. Today’s card will result in us getting hot or shutting it down for the foreseeable future. May the odds be ever in our favor.
The return of the Best Bet was a success. The Bulls ran Utah State out of the gym. Wish the Gauchos could’ve pulled off the perfect night with a cherry on top. Oh well. Back today with a 3-pack. It appears Jaland Lowe is set to make his return tonight for the Cats. That is not confirmed, but KSR believes he has a real chance after live practicing this week. That will help the flow of the offense tremendously, and get Aberdeen back into his normal role. Even without Lowe, I love the Cats catching 5.5. The return of Lowe would be a cherry on top. Best Bet. Let’s get hot!
USF ML -102 : It was a disappointing trip to the Bahamas for Brian Hodgson and the Bulls. After losses to VCU and Colorado State, South Florida is now 0-4 vs KenPom Top 70 teams to start the season. Not a great start for a team that many (including myself) think can win the American this year. Shot Quality shows they probably should be 2-2 in these games instead of 0-4. I believe things can swing their way today in Tampa.
Utah State has been an inferno to start the 25/26 season. We got a first hand dose of that in Charleston during the Classic when they were tied 40-40 with Tulane at the half, and then scorched the Green Wave 56-35 in the 2H. I do believe in the long term success of the Aggies. They will compete at the top of the Mountain West. However, their market price/analytics are flying a little too high at the moment.
A look under the hood shows that the Utah State offense is scoring above their expected results in a big way right now. SQ shows they should be closer to 1.11 PPP instead of the 1.19 number they are boasting. This is an important factor in my handicap today. This game will be a high possession affair. The Bulls are 12th in tempo on KenPom. Utah State has been a pace chameleon this year and they will be happy to get up and down with USF tonight. SQ’s Regression Analysis shows that USF is scoring 1.17 PPP and has room to even improve on that. The SQ PPP for USF is 1.19. I am very interested in backing the short home ML in a high possession game with the SQ PPP .08 in South Florida’s favor.
I also love South Florida’s turnover splits for a team that plays as fast as they do. The Bulls are 61st nationally in turnover % on offense, and they are 29th in turning their opponents over. A blemish on the Aggies resume is they are 167th in turnover percentage on offense. This is another reason why I am backing the Bulls today.
Give us the short ML here. The return of the Best Bet. Lock it in.
Score Prediction:USF 86 – Utah State 79
UCSB -12.5 : When is Pasternack going to catch a break? His last few seasons as the Gauchos head coach have been like our start to this gambling this season. Anything that can go wrong, will definitely go wrong. This is one of the best mid-major coaches in the country… that also has one of the best mid-major rosters in the country. This team is due for a breakout performance. The oddsmakers are expecting it today. We are going to ride with them. This is a 9 point KenPom matchup spread and the books have it sitting at 12.5. That is a very telling sign for me.
We are going back to our lovely friends at Shot Quality for a Regression Analysis snapshot on the Gauchos.
This Gauchos team is defending their ass off. 0.99 SQ PPP on the defensive end is elite. The results are going to start coming on that end of the court.
UCSB really flashed its upside in a win over Seattle. The Gauchos got 20 points from sophomore forward Zion Sensley — he was the No. 1 rated recruit in program history.
Aidan Mahaney and Miro Little both reached double-figures, as well.
The offensive firepower is there as well. Mahaney and Little are proven power conference contributors, and Sensley is starting to hit his stride in his sophomore season. 20 points last time out to get his season average into double figures.
Everything feels like it is culminating in a blowout win tonight over a Long Beach State team that is simply just not any good. They are scoring 0.96 SQ PP and are rated 281st in KenPom’s adjusted defensive rating. I am happy to lay the points here with Santa Barbara
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