Houston/Iowa State was a beautiful palate cleanser after our Murray State melt on Sunday night. Ready to get back to it today. Profitable first week back. Time to build on it with a four pack today. Write-up coming tomorrow for Wednesday’s action!
Texas Tech +9.5 (6:30pm – ESPN) (FD) – given yesterday on X
Texas +2.5 (8:30pm – ESPN2) (Caesars)
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This is the slate I have been working on the most when I decided to make our return on Tuesday. I am trusting the handicapping that I have put into today’s action, and I think we are going to have a MASSIVE day! Three wagers rise to the level of a Best Bet. First time in a long time we have had that! Excited to watch all of the action today. Let’s have a day, boys!
Georgia State/James Madison over 144.5 (7:00pm – ESPN+) (FD)**Best Bet**
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Georgia State/James Madison over 144.5: Just one play tonight. I absolutely love it. There is a beautiful mixture of analytics in our favor here to produce an evening of scoring from two bad teams.
The three point frequency in this matchup is the data point that triggered my interest in looking further into this KenPom number of 144. James Madison comes into this game ranked 53rd in the country in 3PT frequency, and Georgia State isn’t too far behind at 58. The Dukes actually shoot it well (35.9%) for a team with a 12-13 record. The Panthers are not great at shooting the basketball, but JMU’s 3PT defense has not been fantastic and should provide plenty of opportunities for open looks.
This stat pulled from our friends at Shot Quality is a massive feather in the cap for the underdog tonight in route to scoring points. James Madison ranks 321st in the country in putting their opponents to the free throw line. Georgia State will feast at the stripe. I also love what we have seen from Jelani Hamilton over the last few weeks:
Student-Athlete of the Week 🏀
Jelani Hamilton had a standout week, averaging 30.5 ppg, 5.0 rpg, and 2.5 spg through wins against Southern Miss and Arkansas State. On Saturday, he recorded a career-high 38 points, shooting 57.1% from the field, 54.5% from 3-point range, and 80%… pic.twitter.com/vBM80FfteZ
These defenses are atrocious no matter where you look across the data sites. The KenPom profiles are gross, but the ShotQuality profiles show their defenses are even worse than they appear. I think we have an excellent chance of sailing over the KenPom total of 144. I will gladly take over 144.5 for our Best Bet of the night.
Score Prediction: James Madison 78 – Georgia State 73
A warm welcome back! 3-0 sweep. Let’s stay hot tonight!
2/11 Card :
Georgia +9.5 (7:00pm – ESPN2) (DK)
Virginia Tech +8.5 (7:00pm – ACCN) (Caesars)
Seattle U +13.5 (10:00pm – ESPN+) (FD)**Best Bet**
Grand Canyon ML -118 (10:00pm – FS1)(FD)
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Y’all are going to kill me. I can’t break away from work long enough to put pen to paper today. I want to go ahead and have us lock in these plays, so I am not going to be able to get out the write-up as expected. I will make it up another day this week. Maybe a bonus for a Saturday card also. TBD.
Appreciate all of you that stuck with me during the time off. Was fun seeing the interaction on X as we swept the board last night. Let’s keep it rolling!
Feels good to be typing out another blog! We will be back on the train and giving picks before you know it. The break has been awesome! I’ve been able to really dive into the numbers with a new lens, and I feel ready to rock when we get back to it. I am thinking about early February at this point. Still TBD. Below are some matchup edges that I have uncovered from our friends at Shot Quality and KenPom. These are not picks. Just interesting data points that I have uncovered while looking over the slate (with some leans included!). Hope you enjoy. Let me know if you’d like these moving forward until we are back at it.
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Minnesota at #13 Illinois (12:00pm – BTN):
This matchup smells like it could be a Big 10 homecourt whomping to me. KenPom has this as a 16 point Illinois win. That should grab your attention with the way Minnesota has played of late. It will be interesting to see how high it opens. The Golden Gophers are 1-2 on the road this season. With the two losses being by 23 to Missouri and 28 to Purdue. Minnesota has played some better ball since then, but these road performances are very hard to ignore. This feels like a spot where things could unravel again. Illinois should absolutely dominate the free throw battle. The Illini are #1 in the country in defensive three throw rate. Minnesota ranks 279th in the country at 69% from the line. There will not be a path here for Minnesota to gain meaningful points you need to avoid the blow out. Minnesota also just doesn’t do it for me from behind the three point line. 219th in the country in 3PT percentage. I would expect the Illini to put this one to bed quickly. The data agrees.
#19 Florida at #10 Vanderbilt (2:00pm – ESPN):
The most anticipated game of the weekend for me. It will be interesting to see how the oddsmakers see this one. KenPom has this as a three point win for Vanderbilt. I am not so sure you won’t see this as a PK or even Florida -1 at open if I had to guess. Could be dead wrong there, but just a hunch. Florida is rolling coming into this game with the improved play of Boogie Fland. If you want a narrative …
Something about getting fresh cuts at Florida bc Boogie Fland has officially found a rhythm pic.twitter.com/avmnAkCIBf
The Gators have now leapfrogged Vandy in KenPom (10th and 11th). This could be another game where Vanderbilt’s opponent free throw rate could come back to bite them as it did last night in Austin. The Gators are relentless on the glass and could get to the line quite often with a height disparity of 13th in the country in favor of Florida to 233rd for Vanderbilt. The Commodores have been phenomenal this year and have defended home court, but I think the Gators have a real opportunity to steal a close one here with their current form.
#14 North Carolina at Cal (4:00pm – ACCN):
Intriguing one here. KenPom has this as a 3 point game in favor of the Heels. We will likely see a short spread at the open. The Bears have an intriguing matchup edge as a short home dog. They are #1 in the country in opponent steal rate. They do not make mistakes in passing lanes. North Carolina ranks 350th in turning their opponents over. This sets up for Cal to have a solid chance of winning the turnover battle. It is also worth noting that North Carolina is desperate to pick up a win in this one after dropping their west coast opener against Stanford. This should be a fun one. I would more than likely lean to an over on the KenPom total of 149. The regression model is favorable for more points than expected per Shot Quality:
USC Upstate at High Point (7:00pm – ESPN+):
This should be a game where High Point can name their number. It was a really disappointing night last night in Rock Hill. The Panthers got smacked from the jump against Winthrop. The two teams are now tied at the top of the Big South standings. Nothing like coming home to High Point and getting served up a team with the analytical ratings that the Spartans have. The Upstate offense is horrific. They are 311th in KenPom’s adjusted efficiency and it is even worse at Shot Quality at 334th. They are 255th or worse at 3p%, 2P%, FT%, Eff FG%, and offensive rebounding. The High Point defense has really let them down this season to this point, but this is a definite “get right” spot for that side of the ball. The Spartans also are 286th in the country in free throw rate. High Point is 34th at getting to the stripe. This lead should balloon quickly. KenPom has this as a 15 point game. I’d be shocked if it doesn’t open higher.
It is time to shut her down, gentlemen. We are firing with a broken arrow right now & it can’t continue any longer. Time to lower the bow. The oddsmakers got the exact betting splits they wanted last night with Kentucky, Marquette and Baylor. I agreed with them on these sides due to underlying analytics pointing to these teams likely performing better than their resume to this point. Instead, it was a public bettors wet dream. We have seen that a lot this year, unfortunately. We have lost way too many wagers with 65+ % of tickets on the other side (money flipped) this season to fathom. That will just simply be bad news for me if those results continue to happen. I will always back home teams in these scenarios where the underlying analytics are favorable. It is a principle that has a successful proven track record for us since 2020 when we started this blog/account. It has been a broken record whining serenade for me, but we also continued the end of game bad luck once again with USF last night. Not as bad as some of our laughers this year, but the last 30 seconds went exactly as I expected it would. I am just drained mentally and we are giving back way too many units of that exceptional 24/25 season to continue rolling like this. A pause is warranted.
To the trolls/haters, your bitching and whining is warranted this year. I am doing it as well. You can finally get your laughs off. To all of the new members we added to the 3PS community this year, I am sorry. Coming off of the season we had last year with Florida 60-1 and another 55% clip winning season, I could not fathom we would be sitting here in this spot. I hope to regain your trust down the road. To the loyal 3PS community members that we have had for over half of a decade, I am sorry as well. You know we will be back though. Appreciate all of you who have reached out on the side still showing support. I took pride in this being one of the last avenues out there on the internet that was successfully capping for free without any catches. I let y’all down this year, but will be motivated to right the wrongs when we get back.
I am planning on a pause in wagering until late February at the earliest. Likely, will wait until March. TBD. I am not going anywhere though. I will still be doing my normal prep and analytics intake. I also am going to be more active on Twitter providing you guys with injury updates, analytical trends, etc. I want to be a resource for you guys in some capacity while I am stepping away from picks. I also plan on writing a blog or two a week on random trends and team profiles that come across my plate. Hopefully you can put these to good use.
Tournament time is where we always shine. Let’s refresh & regroup before doing it once again. Love y’all. See you soon.
It’s just inevitable at this point isn’t it? From Auburn blowing their 16 point 2H lead in a matter of 28 seconds (literally) … to Eaglestaff hitting a panic turnaround three to beat the shot clock to ensure we lose by a hook in Morgantown. Not even as mad about the other two, but Louisville was up 9 at the break & NC State hit a shot to build out a 13 point lead in the final 90 seconds only to fade from there. Somehow that card from last night went 2-4. I just don’t understand it. Every night this season.
I feel good about this card tonight. I trust my process and prep. It has gotten us to where we are today from just tweeting to a few of y’all all the way back in 2020. I just hope we avoid the silly bullshit/melts tonight.
threepointsniper.com 