(photo: NCAA.com)
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Season Record: 235-168-6
3/19 First Round Card:
Virginia Tech +1 (gave early)
Arkansas -8
Illinois/Drexel o143
Texas Tech -4 (gave early)
Oral Roberts +17 (gave early)
Baylor -25
Georgia Tech / Loyola o124
Tennessee / Oregon State u131.5
Oklahoma State / Liberty o139
Houston -11 1H
UNC -1.5 (gave early)
Purdue -7 (gave early)
Rutgers -1 (gave early)
San Diego State -2.5
WVU / Morehead State o137
Winthrop +6 (gave early)
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Virginia Tech +1 : This team gets up for a big game. Mike Young’s Hokies are 4-0 against Top 25 opponents. He won ACC Coach of the Year, and has this Hokies squad performing quicker than people thought after his move from Wofford. This play is based on what we saw from them against UNC. After two weeks off, they took the Heels to the brink in the ACC Tournament. UF has been on a decline in recent weeks, so we will hope that the return to action will have the Hokies even more dialed in for this first round match-up. VT also ranks higher in adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency. As I said, they love a big game!
Score Prediction: Virginia Tech 69 – Florida 65
Arkansas -8 : Colgate is the analytic darling coming into the tournament this season. There is just one problem. 12 of their 14 wins came from BU, Holy Cross and Army. They were able to run the score up quickly on these inferior sides, and really juiced their offensive ratings. They are very stuck in their way of getting up and down the court with pace, and this will hurt them against the Muss Bus. They do not have the athletes or ability to run with Arkansas and keep them under 80 points. I was tempted to take the over here, but feel more confident in backing Moses Moody and the Razorbacks.
Score Prediction: Arkansas 84 – Colgate 72
Illinois/Drexel o143 : Not sure how much Illinois will be interested in keeping the foot on the gas for the entirety of this one. Or, how much fire we will even see from them at all. They just won the grueling Big 10 Championship, and this may be a nice way to stay in form on the court while also getting rest for the key contributors. However, Drexel have no way of stopping anyone in the rotation from Illinois, and Drexel will grab some garbage time points in this one I would imagine. That is why I lean the over rather than the spread.
Score Prediction: Illinois 85 – Drexel 64
Texas Tech -4 : No analytical approach here. This is just trusting in the competition level of the Big 12. Texas Tech is one of the more talented 6 seeds that I have seen in recent memory in the tournament. Their defensive competitiveness and athleticism will really bother Utah State. The Aggies also struggled to score earlier in the season against competitive defenses like VCU and BYU. I think we will see more of that on Friday. Comfortable win for Chris Beard.
Score Prediction: Texas Tech 70 – Utah State 63
Oral Roberts +17 : I was surprised to see this spread, and we will actually get some CLV here from when we locked it in. If you have been following my account, we have cashed on the Golden Eagles many times this season. Including every single game of the Summit tournament. I will sound like a broken record again, but Max Abmas and Kevin Obanor could play anywhere in the country. They are also starting to get monster contributions from outside shooter Kareem Thompson. This team is NUMBER ONE in the country in free throw percentage at 82.4%, and they shoot the three ball at 39%. This team will score enough to cover the 17. Love this play!
Score Prediction: Ohio State 83 – Oral Roberts 70
Baylor -25 : Assault.
Score Prediction: Baylor 90 – Hartford 58
Georgia Tech / Loyola Chi o124 : The absence of Moses Wright would scare most from the over, but it actually opens up a great play in my opinion. Georgia Tech will have no resistance for Krutwig down low. There is no competent replacement for Moses Wright. This will also change the game plan for Josh Pastner. Devoe, Usher, Parham and Alvarado will have a constant green light from distance. I think Georgia Tech’s threes, paired with Loyola eating down low will get us over the number. I think the spread for the game is right on the number. Wouldn’t touch it with a 10ft pole.
Score Prediction: Loyola 67 – Georgia Tech 61
Tennessee / Oregon State u131.5 : I don’t trust Tennessee to cover a near double digit spread, but I also don’t trust Oregon State to score. So, we will take the under. Tennessee is a Top 10 adjusted defensive efficiency team, and Oregon State rates outside of the Top 100 in offensive efficiency. The miracle run will end on Friday, and it will end in ugly fashion.
Score Prediction: Tennessee 67 – Oregon State 58
Oklahoma State / Liberty o139 : This will be a fun game to watch. While I think Ok State will likely cover, I think the better edge is the over. Oklahoma State will overwhelm Liberty in the paint and on the glass, and Cade Cunningham will be able to do whatever he wants. However, don’t completely sleep on Liberty. While defensively they won’t be able to hang in this game, I believe their 7th rated offense will travel. They shoot 78% from the stripe, 39% from 3, and average under 9 turnovers a game. Even if this one gets away from them, I think they will get us some garbage time points.
Score Prediction: Oklahoma State 78 – Liberty 68
Houston 1H -11 : The Cougars will be waaaaay too much to handle for Cleveland State. I believe Quentin Grimes can get a quick 30 points in this one. This will be a wrap by halftime.
Score Prediction: 1H Houston 42 – Cleveland State 27
UNC -1.5 : Rebounding. Rebounding. Rebounding. Micah Potter and Nate Reuvers are too soft to keep the best offensive rebounding team in America off of the glass. In a loss to Michigan earlier this season, the two Badgers post players combined for zero rebounds. Zero. They don’t have the competitive edge or physicality to not get abused in this one. While I like the Wisconsin guards more, the 2nd chance points will be a big deal in this one.
Score Prediction: UNC 72 – Wisconsin 69
Purdue -7 : This team is rounding into form at the right time. They are efficient on both sides of the ball, and Trevion Williams is in straight beast mode at the moment. The Boilermakers have a nice balance of experience and youth. While they have Williams, Hunter and Stefanovic leading the team, they also have four newcomers that have won Big 10 Freshman of the Week honors. Matt Painter always finds a way to get his group to the Sweet 16, and I think they will get out of this one with a 10 point victory.
Score Prediction: Purdue 69 – North Texas 59
Rutgers -1 : This play is simple. I think Clemson is the worst team to make the field that was not an automatic qualifier. Their defense is overrated in my opinion, and their offense is anemic. If you watched their performance against a Miami side that had 6 healthy scholarship players last week, then you are probably right here with me on this one.
Score Prediction: Rutgers 66 – Clemson 60
San Diego State -2.5 : The toughness of the Aztecs will cause problems for the Syracuse backcourt. They will not have the space they had in the ACC Tournament to let the three ball carry them through this game. Also, Dolezaj may struggle to find effectiveness in this one. If he gets in foul trouble, this might get ugly. I know I am in the minority here, but I don’t get the Syracuse hype…
Score Prediction: San Diego State 70 – Syracuse 64
West Virginia / Morehead St. o137 : There will be a tonnn of points scored in this game. Mostly by the Mountaineers. While I think WVU covers the number easily, the easier edge is in the total. The Eagles have many ways to score with the inside presence of Broome, and the outside shooting of Cooper and Potter. However, this team is one of the worst in the country in protecting the ball. 15.3 turnovers per game. “Press Virginia” will feast on this and have double digit fast break points. We will easily go over the number here.
Score Prediction: WVU 82 – Morehead State 65
Winthrop +6 : I believe that Jay Wright figures out how to win this game, but Winthrop will give Nova a scare. Chandler Vaudrin is one of the best players you have probably never heard of, and this is a really efficient team on both sides of the ball. As we have seen, Nova has really struggled with the injury of Gillespie. There is no true back-up point guard replacement to run the flow of the offense. In the end, Robinson-Earl and Samuels will be too much for the Eagles, but this will be a one or two possession game.
Score Prediction: Villanova 73 – Winthrop 68
Best of luck! Let’s snipe this one y’all!!
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