(photo: CBS Sports)
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Season Record: 272-201-6
3/29 Elite 8 Card:
Baylor 1H -4 / Baylor -7.5 / o148 : If you weren’t impressed by the comeback against Villanova in the Sweet 16, the Bears will show you why the National Championship game will feature the Zags and Baylor just like we all predicted at the beginning of the season. Arkansas is a great team, and you are no slouch if you reach the Elite 8. However, this is a terrible matchup for the Muss Bus and his guys. Baylor has rediscovered their early season magic of turning teams over. Villanova and Wisconsin ranked in the top 10 in the country in not turning the ball over, and the Bears forced 16 and 14 turnovers from those teams respectively. Baylor also only turned the ball over a combined 10 times in those two games. That turnover edge will show up big in the box score tonight against an Arkansas team that can play wild and have mental lapses quite often. Expect a lot of fast break points from Baylor, and for this 2nd half to turn into a track meet. Hell, we may even get a track meet in the first half as well. Baylor will gladly run with Arkansas. It is in Arkansas’ best interest to slow this game down, but we all know that they just cannot help themselves. They are 17th in the country in pace, and that just will not change tonight. Baylor is scoring 72.3 ppg in the tournament against teams that made an effort to slow the game down, so I expect them to get close to 90 tonight. Baylor big.
Score Prediction: Baylor 85 – Arkansas 72 (1H: Baylor 40 – Arkansas 32)
Houston 1H -4 / Oregon State +8 / o128.5 : Participating in a cardinal rule of gambling tonight by taking different sides for the 1H and game, but they are the right plays in my opinion. Listen, Houston is the better team. We all know this. However, we can’t just let that control the entire narrative of this game as the Beavers have proved us wrong time and time again. One key factor is really driving this Cinderella run for Oregon State – the free throw line. What is the only issue with Houston’s elite defense? – fouling. The free throw stripe will prove to be an equalizer as this game moves on through the 2H. Oregon State is shooting 86.5% from the stripe this tournament, and have attempted a whopping 55 free throws in their last two games. However, they have also allowed their opponents to shoot 62 free throws in those two games. Oklahoma State & Loyola Chicago just did not cash in with high percentages. Houston has struggled from the stripe recently, so this may be another edge for Oregon State. I love the volume of free throws to also get us over the total. I don’t expect a ton of threes in this game, but those shots from the stripe will loom large on the total. Houston will come out hot with energy in this game, but fouls will catch up with them later in the contest and bring this inside of the number.
Score Prediction: Houston 69 – Oregon State 64 (1H: Houston 34 – Oregon State 28)
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