(photo: Tar Heel Times)
I will do my best to provide *at least* a daily group of 3-5 picks for all of you snipers out there. The goal is a 2-1 (3-2) night. I recommend you play them individually .. however, never be scared of a little sniper parlay! 20/21 Season: 58%
Season Record: 201-197-14
Best Bet Record: 11-6
2/1 Card:
Northwestern -5
UNC -2.5
St. John’s -3
Texas Tech -4.5
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Northwestern -5 : Have to feel for this Wildcat bunch. This was the year many deemed to be their best shot at making the tournament with their current group. They have suffered close loss, after close loss. However, I believe this is a great night/game to let out some of those frustrations. Rutgers has severe home/road splits as we all know by now. They are 1-7 straight up, and 1-4 ATS as a dog on the road. I think they will struggle to keep Nance off of the offensive glass, and Audige and Buie are shot makers inside of Welsh-Ryan arena. Rutgers will likely struggle to score on the road, and I like the Wildcats to pull this one out comfortably.
Score Prediction: Northwestern 70 – Rutgers 61
UNC -2.5 : Best Bet alert. I know Vegas is begging us to take the Tar Heels, but I don’t care. The square side wins every now and then. Louisville is just a complete dumpster fire. Chris Mack was relieved of his duties last week, and as of yesterday Malik Williams is suspended indefinitely. That is a MASSIVE loss for the matchup with the Tar Heels. As always, UNC is one of the top rebounding teams in the country. They are tied for 8th in total rebounds, and 9.6 of those are on the offensive glass. Armando Bacot has been the stalwart behind this, and has preyed on teams with undersized front courts. He had 18 rebounds against BC, and 19 rebounds against VT. The Cardinals do not have anyone averaging over 4.5 rebounds on the roster other than Williams. With his suspension, it should be a blood bath on the boards. I know North Carolina has been downright awful on the road, but second chance points can calm some nerves. Not to mention, the Heels played their best game of the season last time out. Hot hand + matchup mismatch = $
Score Prediction: UNC 80 – Louisville 70
St. John’s -3 : The Johnies! I absolutely love this matchup against a Providence team that is playing above their means. While Providence is walking into Queens with an 18-2 record, it is not quite as rosy of a resume as it seems. Per Ky McKeon from the Three Man Weave, the Friars have the highest recorded luck factor stat in KenPom since its inception. You can create your own luck at times, but chances are this team is due for a regression. You can even see that in the market. They are 1-4 ATS in their last 5. We had the same feeling a few weeks ago when they rolled into Milwaukee and got their doors blown off. St. John’s won both matchups last season pretty easily, and I think we see that today as well. Champagnie is a bad matchup for Watson and Horchler. An easy double-double in both affairs last season. Johnies roll.
Score Prediction: St. John’s 77 – Providence 69
Texas Tech -4.5 : You think I’m not taking the Red Raiders on “Fuck Chris Beard Night”? Psh. Thankfully, the line came back to a more comfortable place after opening at -6.5. I think the bookmakers were as excited for this home spot as I was. However, I simply don’t see a way for Texas Tech to lose tonight. The Longhorns have shown all season that their offense is completely anemic on the road. I don’t see it traveling to maybe the most hostile environment in college basketball that we will see this season. Plus, the Red Raiders are one of the best defensive teams in the country. They are 7th in adjusted defensive efficiency. All of the signs are pointing to the black & red. Guns up!
Score Prediction: Texas Tech 67 – Texas 60
Best of luck! Let’s snipe this one y’all!!
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