(photo: SB Nation)
I will do my best to provide *at least* a daily group of 3-5 picks for all of you snipers out there. The goal is a 2-1 (3-2) night. I recommend you play them individually .. however, never be scared of a little sniper parlay! 20/21 Season: 58%
Season Record: 308-271-20
Best Bet Record: 34-21
Let’s Dance!
West Region:
Boise State +3 : This is not the team Memphis wanted to see in a first round matchup. The Broncos have the size and athleticism to match with the Tigers. Not many teams in the country can say that. Also, they love to slow the pace of the game. That is trouble for Memphis due to their struggles with half-court offense. This is due to their inability to handle pressure defense. They turn the ball over 16.2 times per game, and Boise State forces an opponent turnover on 19.8% of possessions. Boise does have an Achilles heel of free throw shooting. They are 346th in the country. However, Memphis checks in at 269th. We should see close to a wash there. The wrong team is favored. Give me the points.
Score Prediction: Boise State 68 – Memphis 66
New Mexico State +7 : While I like UConn to advance to the Sweet 16, this is a tricky first round matchup for the Huskies. Seven points is too many in this one. The Aggies are a veteran team led by one of the best coaches in this tournament. Chris Jans has developed a powerhouse mid-major program that you do not want to see in the NCAA Tournament. The last time he was a 12 seed, the Aggies lost by 1 to an Auburn team that marched on to the Final Four in 2019. Their leading scorer in that game, Johnny McCants, is still on the roster. I like the Aggies to keep it close.
Score Prediction: UConn 69 – New Mexico State 65
Davidson +1 : Foster Loyer revenge game! The Michigan State transfer has really enjoyed this season at Davidson. He has career highs across the board, and will be eager to get after the Spartans in this one. The advantage Davidson has on the offensive end will be to great for Michigan State to overcome. Davidson enters this game ranked as the 12th best offense in the country per efficiency ratings. They have made 291 threes as a team on 38.9% shooting, and have four starters averaging double figure points. There is just simply not enough shot makers on Michigan State to compete in this one.
Score Prediction: Davidson 74 – Michigan State 68
Duke -18 : This is going to be one of the bigger blowouts of the weekend. It is my Best Bet for Friday. There will be an assault on the offensive glass and the three point line. Cal State Fullerton is the 28th worst 3pt % defense in the country. They allow opponents to shoot 37.1% from distance. That is bad news when facing a Duke team that has really excelled from behind the three point line this season. 278 makes on 36.8% shooting. I would not be surprised to see Duke with 12-14 triples in the final box score. Fullerton is 326th in the country in made threes per game at 5.5. This disparity will open up the game quickly. Also, the size and rebounding advantage is too vast in this game. The Titans only have one player with over 4 rebounds per game. Second chance points galore for Williams, Banchero, John, Moore etc. This has 30 point victory written all over it.
Score Prediction: Duke 88 – Cal State Fullerton 58
East Region:
Texas PK : What are we doing with this line? I know Texas has underachieved all season, but this should not be a Pick’Em spread. The Longhorns have a talent advantage across the board in this one. VT will not be able to get any look they wanted like they did in Brooklyn. I am not sure what Duke and Carolina were doing, but it was not playing defense. Chris Beard knows how to tighten the defensive gears on his teams come tournament time. Virginia Tech does not have a lot of players that can create their own shot when things are locked up and the shot clock is running out. For that reason, I am siding with the Longhorns. Also, shouldn’t we be betting the Big 12 over the ACC in this scenario anyways?
Score Prediction: Texas 65 – VT 60
Purdue -16 : This was not a fair draw for Yale. This poor team does not have anyone over 6’8 on their roster that sees action. 7’4 Zach Edey is going to absolutely eat in this matchup.. and, when he’s not .. Trevion Williams will be cleaning up the leftovers. That size disadvantage is also bad news when guarding Jaden Ivey. He is going to get to the rim at will in this one. I don’t see a path to Yale playing any time of competent defense in this one. Seton Hall & Auburn reached the 80 point plateau in the non-con against the Bulldogs, and Purdue will do the same. The Boilermakers roll easily.
Score Prediction: Purdue 82 – Yale 60
Murray State / San Fran o136 : I cannot wait to watch this game. It should be fireworks from the opening tip. I do not recommend taking a particular side. However, there are areas for both teams to excel on the offensive end. KJ Williams should not have much resistance with what is left of the Dons interior defense. On the other end, Bouyea and Shabazz should be able to take advantage of turnovers and transition opportunities. I think both teams should be able to shoot the three well in this one also. I projected a 72-71 Murray State win, so the over has value in my opinion.
Score Prediction: Murray State 72 – San Francisco 71
South Region:
TCU PK : The Hall has struggled immensely after the loss of Bryce Aiken. The offensive identity is completely lost. There is a lot of iso and 1-on-1 going on in this lineup, and I don’t like that going against the potent Horn Frogs defense. TCU is Big 12 battle tested. Their offense has significantly improved against some of the best defenses in the country. Mike Miles has taken over as a go-to guy that is critical for tournament time. I also love the way Emmanuel Miller is playing on both ends of the court. TCU squeaks out a close one.
Score Prediction: TCU 66 – Seton Hall 63
UAB/Houston u136 : Under, Under, Under. Houston is the 3rd rated team in the nation in defensive efficiency, and the Blazers are 34th. The clamps will be on. UAB is going to find offensive life very difficult when Kelvin Sampson takes Jelly Walker out of this game. He has the tools to do so, and that will be a priority for him. I also like the way that Quan Jackson can make things difficult for the Houston guards. He is Top 10 in the nation in steals. That defensive weapon will help UAB keep things respectful in this one.
Score Prediction: Houston 68 – UAB 60
Chattanooga +8 : My Mocs! Had to roll with them in this one. I actually find a couple of their matchups appealing. I really believe that Silvio De Sousa can get Kofi into foul trouble quickly. As we have seen time and time again this year, Illinois is very beatable without him on the court. Malachi Smith has the feel of a big time player that can carry a mid-major to a tournament upset. Plummer and Frazier gamble often, and this could lead to a big night for the SoCon Player of the Year. I wish they had a better draw. I don’t believe they will have enough interior scoring to pull out a win in this one, but they will definitely get within this number in my opinion. I also believe that Lamont Paris will slow this game down. Fewer possessions will keep this one from getting away.
Score Prediction: Illinois 70 – Chattanooga 64
Colorado State +2 : This was close to a stay away from me before learning of the Devante Jones injury. He is likely out for this entire weekend with a concussion. That shifted this into a comfortable Rams play for me. Jones has been exceptional on this run to earn Michigan an at-large bid. Frankie Collins is not ready for the minutes he is going to be forced to play in this one. Huge advantage to Isaiah Stevens and Kendle Moore. It is also David Roddy time. He is going to make himself a household name by carrying the Rams to the Sweet 16.
Score Prediction: Colorado State 70 – Michigan 66
Longwood +18 : Too many points. The Lancers will surprise some people here! This team is deep and full of shooters. They are shooting 38% as a team from three on 262 makes in 32 games. You need that if your are going to stand a chance for an upset as a high seed in March. Tennessee has a tendency to get lazy at times. If they aren’t careful, they could get a 40 minute fight in this one…
Score Prediction: Tennessee 72 – Longwood 60
Loyola PK : I love the Ramblers in this matchup. The Buckeyes are injured and playing poorly coming into this matchup. It will not help matters when one of the best defenders in the country is thrown at EJ Liddell. I fully expect Lucas Williamson to be tight on Liddell for the entirety of this game. Williamson’s defensive prowess is giving him NBA looks, and this will be a great chance to showcase his skills once again. Also, Loyola can get spicy hot from distance. I think this was a really bad draw for Ohio State. The tough end of the season gets worse here. 1st round exit.
Score Prediction: Loyola 68 – Ohio State 63
Midwest Region:
San Diego State -2 : Creighton has been a thorn in my side lately, but I truly believe this is the “final beast” of surviving life without Ryan Nembhard. San Diego State is the best defense in the country. I am struggling to believe that the young Creighton team, without their point guard, can withstand the Aztecs for 40 minutes. SDSU’s length & athleticism paired with the way they can pressure in the half-court has been baffling for offenses to maneuver around this season. Coach McBuckets has done one hell of a job this season & Creighton has heart, but this will be the end of the road for the 2021-2022 season.
Score Prediction: San Diego State 62 – Creighton 57
Iowa/Richmond o150 : Iowa is the hottest team in the country. Their offense has been running on rocket fuel recently. I like this to continue against a Richmond team that struggles often on the defensive end of the court. They rank 164th in defensive efficiency. I think the Spiders also have weapons to get after the Hawkeye defense. The Spiders have made 284 threes on the year. This could be one of those games where Bohannon and Gilyard are just taking turns drilling 25 footers for several possessions in a row. Give me the over.
Score Prediction: Iowa 84 – Richmond 72
South Dakota State +2 : The Jackrabbits are the better team. Hence the +2 spread in a 4/13 seed matchup. South Dakota State is one of the best three point shooting teams that we have seen in the college game. Ever. They are shooting 44.9% from distance on 319 makes in 34 games. Their shooting paired with the inside presence of Douglas Wilson makes this team a very dangerous opponent in a “win or go home” game. I like the offensive efficiency to carry the Jackrabbits to a win here. Thursday’s Best Bet.
Score Prediction: South Dakota State 76 – Providence 70
Iowa State +4 : The absence of Will Wade will prove to be to great for the Tigers to overcome in this one. Iowa State plays lights out defense, and you need to have a proven coach drawing up your X’s and O’s in timeouts against a team like that in a tournament setting. Brockington has a star factor that will carry Iowa State to a win in this game.
Score Prediction: Iowa State 65 – LSU 64
Wisconsin -7 : This is not your typical Colgate. While they were good enough to win the Patriot again, this is their worst team in three years. There will be no answer for Johnny Davis defensively. He will be eager to make a big statement after his struggles against Sparty in the Big 10 Tournament. Colgate really struggled outside of the Patriot in non-con this season. I think that matters. Wisconsin wins comfortably.
Score Prediction: Wisconsin 75 – Colgate 64
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