(photo: WynnBet)
I will do my best to provide *at least* a daily group of 3-5 picks for all of you snipers out there. The goal is a 2-1 (3-2) night. I recommend you play them individually .. however, never be scared of a little sniper parlay! 20/21 Season: 58%
Season Record: 325-290-20
Best Bet Record: 34-23
Let’s Dance!
Arkansas +9.5 : Gonzaga has failed to cover in the first two games of this tournament. That trend will continue tonight. Gonzaga has struggled to defend the guard positions in their three losses this season. The Zags allowed 65 combined points to Shackelford, Quinerly and Davison when they fell to the Tide this season. Arkansas plays a similar style of basketball (very guard centric), and I think there is an opportunity for them to keep this one close. The key will be keeping Notae out of foul trouble. He picked up 4 against Vermont, and fouled out of the New Mexico State game.
Score Prediction: Gonzaga 80 – Arkansas 73
Michigan +5: Hunter Dickinson is on a war path this tournament. Shooting 16/23 from the field and averaging 24ppg. Villanova has struggled to cover the paint against similar sized teams to the Wolverines this season. UCLA, Purdue, Baylor and UConn are the losses that come to mind. Eric Dixon will not be able to stop Dickinson from his over the shoulder left, and he definitely will struggle on the glass. Diabate is an X-Factor tonight. I believe he has a great chance to impact this game on the defensive end. It is always scary to go against Nova in March, but I am going with the fortified interior of the Wolverines to cover the points here. Worth a ML sprinkle.
Score Prediction: Villanova 69 – Michigan 67
Texas Tech PK : Defense, defense, defense. Duke is a team that likes to play finesse basketball, and they will not be afforded that opportunity tonight. Here is a great stat courtesy of Jim Root from the Three Man Weave: Texas Tech has played 24 unique opponents this season, and 17 of them have had their lowest 2pt performance of the season against the Red Raiders. That is mind blowing. Speaking of defense, Duke is 193rd in the country in defense since March 1st. Sparty got whatever they wanted against them in Greenville. This will be Coach K’s final game.
Score Prediction: Texas Tech 74 – Duke 68
Arizona ML : Arizona has the bodies to thwart’s Houston offensive glass threat. I think Tommy Lloyd will have 2/3 of Koloko, Tubelis and Ballo on the court at all times. Also, this is simply a Bennedict Mathurin play. He has the makings of a Final Four MVP. His 30/8/4 stat line against a great TCU defense was super impressive. I am not sure Houston has a guy to go shot for shot with him down the stretch.
Score Prediction: Arizona 74 – Houston 70
Purdue -12.5 : The Cinderella run stops here. Edey and Williams were able to take down a formidable Texas defense. The Peacocks’ undersized frontcourt will have a lot of problems with fouls and rebounding. When they are both working, this team can win it all. Also, Jaden Ivey was slinging dagger triples against Texas. It will be key for Purdue for him to continue to hit outside shots. He can already drive to the rim like Ja Morant, so that makes him one of the most lethal players in the tournament.
Score Prediction: Purdue 76 – Saint Peters 59
Providence +7.5 : This team just covers. Simple as that. They key to this game will be how Ed Cooley chooses to deploy Justin Minaya in this game. He is a versatile defender that could spend time on Braun, Agbaji and Wilson. Kansas struggled at times in the Big 12 season with teams that liked to get physical with them. Look for Providence to slow this one down and deploy a few fouls along the way. Al Durham is one of the best closers in the country. We will need him driving to the bucket and getting to the line at the end.
Score Prediction: Kansas 72 – Providence 67
UNC +3 (-120) : This team is scorching hot. They likely win the Baylor game running away if Manek isn’t tossed. While it was a complete disaster getting to the finish line, the Heels got valuable experience for Dontrez Styles in the process. He was a big time recruit that could prove to provide valuable minutes as the tournament goes on. UCLA’s bigs are too slow for Armando Bacot, and I like the speed of Carolina’s guards as well. With Leaky Black hugging Juzang throughout the majority of this game, I like Carolina to squeak this one out.
Score Prediction: UNC 72 – UCLA 70
Miami -2 : Best Bet. One of my favorites of this season. The Hurricanes are rolling in hot into this matchup against the Cyclones. Iowa State benefited from playing a banged up Wisconsin backcourt. It led to turnovers and bad possessions. Miami has the backcourt to force the issue against Iowa State. They only turn the ball over 9.3 times per game. That is ranked 6th nationally. Both teams can defend, but Miami is a vastly better offensive team.. If Miami reaches 60 points, they win this game.
Score Prediction: Miami 65 – Iowa State 58
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