(photo: Burnt Orange Nation)
Welcome back snipers! It is the best time of the year, and I have you covered with your prep for the 22/23 Season. I will be providing you with a “Play”, “Fade” and “Buy Now” team for the major seven conferences. You know we can’t stop there. I also will be lumping in some mid-major loves.
No, I do not care about your team’s preseason scrimmage. Let’s get cooking..
AAC
Play: Houston -330
The Cougars will be back in the mix for a Final Four birth in 2023. Marcus Sasser is baaaaaack. I think Timme will run away with the Naismith race this season, but take a look at Sasser on a flier. This guy can get a bucket from anywhere on the court. He showed just that by shooting 44% from three before his injury last season. This backcourt has a chance to be one of the best in the country with the emerging, Jamal Shead. He burst onto the scene in the tournament last season, and I am expecting big things from this combo guard this season. The defensive intensity and rebounding will continue to be elite with the majority of their key contributors in those areas back. This team is downright scary to play. Your money is safe with -330.
Fade: Memphis
But, they added conference player of the year, Kendric Davis?!! No. Just no. This will not elevate this team anywhere above where they were last season. Which was a massive disappointment. Memphis averaged 16.4 turnovers a game last season, and Kendric Davis is not the type of guard to fix that issue. There are also major questions in the post. Deandre Williams sure, but.. who else? Lastly, I just simply do not trust Penny Hardaway. This team always has the hype, but I fear we will never see the success. I will be looking to fade the Tigers early and often this season.
Buy Now: Cincinnati +1000
Maybe not the conference price, as I am confident in a Houston AAC title.. but make sure to bet this team early and often before Vegas catches on. I am super excited for Wes Miller’s 2nd season at Cincinnati. He is one of my favorite coaches in the country, and this team is ripe for a major breakout. The Bearcats were Top 50 in assist/turnover ratio last season. One of my favorite stats for the quality of offense being ran. I think they have a chance to move into the Top 25 in that stat this season with David DeJulius having a year as a starting PG under his belt. I am also very impressed with the level of transfers that Miller was able to bring in. Landers Nolley is an elite scorer. I am expecting that we will see VT level Nolley again (Memphis is such a disaster lol). Rob Phinisee comes in from Indiana and will be a fantastic glue guy. Lastly, Kalu Ezikpe was a difference maker at ODU on the glass. That paired with his 74% free throw shooting will translate to the AAC.
ACC
Play: UNC +140
It is what it is. The Tar Heels are the class of the ACC, and have the best starting five in the country. Losing Brady Manek was a huge loss, but Hubert Davis fired back with the transfer get of Pete Nance. He may not shoot it as well from distance (the threat from 3 is there though!), but his athleticism adds a new dynamic to this team. It will be the last ride with the core four of Bacot, Love, Davis and Black. Can they comeback from heart break like the 2017 Tar Heels and win the title in their last hurray? I tend to think so. Their title odds are not worth the risk to start the season, but we will gladly take this +140 price to win the conference.
Fade: Miami
The Cinderella tournament run of 2022 was just that. Miami does not belong with the elites of the country as we move into the 22/23 season. This Hurricanes were 273rd in the country in opponent offensive rebounding percentage last season. Their opponents were getting an offensive rebound on 28.7% of their possessions. They did nothing to address this in freshman recruiting or the transfer portal. With the loss of Kameron McGusty, I do not see this team sniffing an NCAA tournament birth. I will be fading them where it makes sense to start this season.
Buy Now: FSU +1600
Injuries ruined the 21/22 season for the Seminoles. Now that they are healthy, I am expecting a major bounce back for FSU. Former five star recruit, Matthew Cleveland, was finally coming into his own at the end of last season, and I am expecting big things from him. Caleb Mills is a fantastic guard and will be leading the offense. Mills staying healthy is the huge key. Leonard Hamilton’s team will be in passing lanes and on the glass per usual, and the addition of UCF transfer, Darin Green Jr., will be a nice boost to the offense. The Seminoles will be back in the big dance in 2023. As I said for the AAC, I would not take FSU’s conference price.. but look to play them early and often.
Big East
Play: Creighton +200
The year of the Jays. This is currently the only team that I have an NCAA title future on. I am holding a 28/1 ticket. Creighton has an elite starting five that is paired with a deeeeep bench. Baylor Scheierman is the best player in the country that you have never heard of. The South Dakota State transfer will take this team to new heights, and cement his NBA future. Ryan Nembhard is one of the best facilitators in the game and will be able to take this offense to an elite level in his sophomore season. The starting five also includes an elite big in 7’1 Ryan Kalkbrenner. Expect a big big year from this little ole team from Omaha.
Fade: St. John’s
This team is receiving a ton of hype due to the addition of Illinois transfer, Andre Curbelo. Curbelo is no doubt extremely talented, but are we really supposed to believe he has magically discovered how to take care of the basketball? Curbelo averaged 2.8 turnovers in 19 minutes per game last season. Expect these turnovers to elevate even more in the up-tempo offense of Mike Anderson. There could also be a power struggle of ball control between Curbelo and Posh Alexander. I just am not loving the mixture of this team as we head into the 22/23 season. Will they be fun to watch? Absolutely. Will they put money in your pocket vs quality opposition? Probably not.
Buy Now: Seton Hall +1000
The Shaheen Holloway show is back in action. This time in the Big East. Bringing KC Ndefo with him from Saint Peter’s was a great start to his coaching tenure at a Pirate. However, my love for this team resides in their backcourt. Seton Hall is returning their “do-it-all” guard Kadary Richmond. I am expecting another big step forward for him this season. In addition to Richmond, the Pirates are returning Jamir Harris. Holloway has also added two ACC guards from the transfer portal that I think could really benefit from a change of scenery. Dre Davis from Louisville, and Al-Amir Dawes from Clemson. An energized fan base that is excited about their former Pirate coming home to coach could lead to some great ATS value at the Prudential Center to start the season.
Big Ten
Play: Michigan +500
This conference is truly a toss up, but the Wolverines are my best guess as to who brings home the regular season title. The buzz is being centered around Bloomington, but I believe in the core fundamentals of Howard’s Wolverines. Hunter Dickinson is primed for another All-Big Ten season. Reports are that his jumper is even better than last season’s improvement. I am a huge fan of Princeton transfer, Jaelin Llewellyn. He can score at this major conference level, and will lead this offensive effectively. I am sure of it. Also, coach’s son, Jett Howard, will win Freshman of the Year in the conference. Book it.
Fade: Purdue
Listen, I love Matt Painter. I know he is always there when March rolls around, but I am just unsure of how this team scores points against major competition this season. Who is the go-to scorer at the guard position? I cannot identify who that will come to be this season. I will be looking to fade them in those spots.
Buy Now: Iowa +550
This team almost finished ahead of Michigan in my preseason rankings. It will be another great season for Hawkeye fans. It is never easy replacing a lottery pick, but the rest of this team is poised to breakout. Including Keegan’s brother Kris. I can see him north of 15ppg this season. I really love the intensity of Perkins and Uhlis in the backcourt. This high flying team should earn you some coin this season.
Big 12
Play: Texas +350
Chris Beard will have the Longhorns in the Elite 8 + this season. But, first.. they will win the Big 12. Tyrese Hunter is an absolute game changer. Beard knew he needed to pull out all of the stops to land him. One of the best point guards in the country is poised to fix an offense that just simply lacked play/shot creation in Beard’s first season in Austin. Assuming the offense gets going, that paired with an elite defense will be a great recipe for success. Also, don’t sleep on the addition of Sir’Jabari Rice from NMSU. He is used to a tough nosed defensive system, and can also get a bucket. You know what, fuck it. We are adding the Longhorns 30/1 to win the title.
Fade: It is all love for the upper class of the Big 12 this year. I even love the bottom of it comparative to other conferences. No hate to provide in the preseason.
Buy Now: TCU +650
The tournament showing last season by the Horn Frogs was not a fluke. They are the real deal. Mike Miles Jr. is as good as it gets at the guard position, and TCU defends so well as a team. I would like to see them improve on their turnovers, but that is really my only gripe with this team. Look for them to remain in the Top 15-20 for the entire length of this 22/23 season.
PAC 12
Play: Arizona +205
The Wildcats are poised to have another big year under Tommy Lloyd. Tubelis should be in the mix for Pac-12 Player of the Year. The 6’11 forward averaged 14 amd 6 last season, and I would imagine those numbers balloon closer to 19 and 8. The addition of Courtney Ramey from Texas will give Arizona a dynamic backcourt with Kerr Kriisa. Also, I really expect Pelle Larsson and Oumar Ballo to grow into bigger roles this season. The consensus pick is UCLA, but I will rock with the Wildcats
Fade: USC
The Trojans are the most overrated team from last season. I did not believe they deserved to be in the NCAA Tournament. I am here to tell you for a fact, that they will not be this season. They lose three out of their top five scorers from a year before, and a major chunk of their rebounds. I do not see Vince Iwuchukwu being a solution to these problems by himself. Fade the Trojans early and often.
Buy: Stanford +1900
Do not play the conference price, but look to back this team in the early stages of the season. I really like the roster that Jerrod Haase pieced together for this season. Harrison Ingram is poised to be an NBA draft pick this season, and the Cardinal return their leading scorer in Spencer Jones. Haase also added Michael Jones from Davidson. He is an elite fundamental basketball player, and will be stability to the offense. Excited to see what this team can do. Potential tourney birth?!
SEC
Play: Tennessee +350
It is semi-disrespectful to have the reigning SEC tournament champs priced as the 3rd best team in the SEC. Tyreke Key was the perfect addition to this team to fill the void of Kennedy Chandler, and EVERY other major contributor is back. Rick Barnes is an exceptional coach and commands consistency from his teams. I trust this team to take the SEC regular season crown this season. There are too many question marks for UK (injuries) and Arkansas (newcomers).
Fade: Alabama
The shine of the high flying Oats teams in Tuscaloosa is slowing fading. I hate that it has gotten to this point, but I will be fading Bama to start the 22/23 season. Mark Sears gelling quickly could potentially change my take, but the Tide should struggle out of the gate. Especially, with Quinnerly recovering from injury still.
Buy: Auburn +1000
The Tigers will still have a fast paced exceptional backcourt, and I am excited at what Johnni Broome can bring to the SEC. It will not be easy to replace the impact that Walker Kessler and Jabari Smith had for Auburn last season, but the Morehead State transfer has long been one of my favorite mid-major players. There will certainly be a dip for the Tigers, but I am not buying that it will be as drastic as the consensus says. Wouldn’t play these longshot title odds, but I am very eager to see if backing the Tigers in the early part of the season will prove to be profitable.
Mid-Major Loves
San Diego State:
A Matt Bradley led Aztecs team has no ceiling this year. This ball dominant guard is one of the best in the country, and it showed by their run in March last season. The defensive talent was ELITE on this team last year. They just had short comings if Matt Bradley had an off scoring night. Brian Dutcher has solved this issue with the addition of Darrion Trammell and Micah Parrish through the transfer portal. This team is constructed for a deep tournament run.
Wyoming:
When/If Graham Ike returns from injury.
UAB:
The Jelly Walker show.
Drake:
I really love the makeup of this team. Roman Penn is back to run the show, and I expect Tucker DeVries to win the MVC Player of the Year honors. Loyola is no longer in The Valley, so I expect the Bulldogs to have a clear path to the big dance.
That is all I have for this preseason preview. There are countless other teams that we can get into, but we will leave it here. Please shoot me a DM with any questions or thoughts. I look forward to sharing my plays with you for another season. See you soon!
threepointsniper.com 