(photo: The State News)
I will do my best to provide college basketball winners for you on a nightly basis. The majority of the nights we will try to keep it to three plays, but some days may ask for more. I recommend you play them individually .. however, never be scared of a little sniper parlay!
Season Record: 77-59
Season Best Bet Record: 31-16
1/3 Card:
Mississippi State +10.5
Michigan State -7
Utah State -6.5
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Mississippi State +10.5 : We got a good number last night. This is now sitting at +9.5 in most places. I believe that 10.5 is too many points in a game that I have a hunch will be very low scoring. KenPom has this total at 114, and I believe that under 122 could be a decent look. However, the Mississippi State side is the better play IMO. Chris Jans has quickly brought a toughness to Starkville. The Bulldogs are ranked 4th in defensive efficiency in the country in year one of the Jans regime. He is a coach that always rallies his team around hard nosed/muck it up basketball games. He will have his team relishing a physical matchup with the Vols, and Rick Barnes’ crew will welcome the physicality in this one. Expect a lot of fouls, and a lot of late shot clock situations. Maryland gave Jans a great blueprint earlier this season. They were very physical and forced a lot of contact with Tennessee. 20+ fouls for each team. This really frustrated the Vols and led to a nail biter where Tennessee escaped by 3 points. I think we see a similar affair tonight.
Score Prediction: Tennessee 62 – Mississippi State 55
Michigan State -7 : Best Bet of the night. I like the Spartans to eviscerate Nebraska tonight. The market is very high on the Cornhuskers currently. I can’t blame them. Their recent resume is decent at the surface level. They took Purdue to OT, and then beat the hell out of Iowa on 12/29. However, both of these games were at home. Nebraska has been very underwhelming on the road this season. Outside of an emotional road performance where they knocked off their limping rival (Creighton), they have gotten absolutely torched on the road. 20 point loss in Carnesecca against St John’s (which is starting to look horrific), 16 point loss on the road in Bloomington, and a 15 point loss at KState. Their defense does not travel, and they get overwhelmed by more athletic teams on the road. Michigan State is very athletic, and now have their best offensive piece back in the fold. Malik Hall scored 11 points in 12 minutes the last time out, and we should see a minutes uptick tonight. I fully expect Sissoko to handle Derrick Walker in the post, and the guard play from Michigan State will overwhelm the Cornhusker backcourt. This will be over quickly IMO. Sparty big at the Breslin Center.
Score Prediction: Michigan State 73 – Nebraska 59
Utah State -6.5 : We got a good number here as well. I am seeing 7.5 to 8 at most places. I am not buying the homecourt Air Force is being touted with in the market. KenPom has them as the #2 homecourt advantage in the country. I just don’t see it. They have suffered losses to Texas A&M Commerce, Portland, and Nevada in Colorado Springs this season. Three non-con losses should probably knock your home court rating. Utah State has been absolutely fantastic this season, and I have them winning this game by 9 points. They have five double digit scorers, and are getting fantastic defensive efforts from role players such as Zee Hamoda and Trevin Dorius. The Aggies should rake on the glass, and I don’t see a good shooting performance from Heidbreder and others being enough to knock us off tonight. Trusting the Aggies in this first conference road spot.
Score Prediction: Utah State 73 – Air Force 64
Best of luck! Let’s snipe this one y’all!!
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