(photo: James Gilbert)
I will do my best to provide college basketball winners for you on a nightly basis. The majority of the nights we will try to keep it to three plays, but some days may ask for more. I recommend you play them individually .. however, never be scared of a little sniper parlay!
Season Record: 96-74
Season Best Bet Record: 37-18
1/11 Card:
Arkansas PK
Richmond/Davidson o133
Mizzou/Texas A&M u151
FSU +7.5
TCU +6.5
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Arkansas PK : Bud Walton is going to be jumping tonight! I am giving a massive home edge to Arkansas tonight. I have them as a 2 point favorite, so I will take the PK line. I think Mark Sears will really struggle in this matchup tonight. Whether he is on Council or Black, it will be a major advantage for the Hogs. Both of the Arkansas guards are elite and driving to the rim, and Sears is just too small for that smoke. I am also excited to see if Jordan Walsh takes on the Brandon Miller assignment (trusting he will). I believe that his length and athleticism could really bother Miller in a way that Houston did earlier this season. He will just need to stay out of foul trouble. I also like Devo Davis to have a big night. He is an electric player with the home atmosphere behind him. Hogs in a close one.
Score Prediction: Arkansas 79 – Alabama 77
Richmond/Davidson o133 : There are incredible paths for both teams to score here IMO. Tyler Burton is going to have an absolute field day against this Wildcat defense. Davidson comes in ranked 193rd in defensive efficiency, and just got exposed by an athletically superior team in VCU. Burton’s athleticism will give him many, many looks at the rim tonight. I also think Davidson can get what they want offensively in this matchup. Richmond’s home/road defensive efficiency splits are some of the craziest in the country. They rate out at 0.879 at home, and fall to 1.050 on the road. That 1.050 is good for 253rd in the country. Abysmal. There will be a lot of trading of baskets tonight. Davidson plays at a decent pace, and Richmond actually plays a faster pace on the road. I like this over spot.
Score Prediction: Davidson 71 – Richmond 67
Mizzou/Texas A&M u151 : Best Bet of the night! You must think I am crazy taking an under in a game featuring the highest scoring offense in the country, right?? Well, Buzz Williams has something special cooking in College Station. This Aggie defense is healthy, and hungry for stops. In their last five outings they are allowing 60.8ppg. Included in that sample size was a 2-0 start to SEC conference play. They beat UF on the road while only allowing 63 points, and then followed that up at home with an absolute beat down of LSU where they only allowed 56 points. A&M has the 38th best home defense in the country at a 0.856 efficiency. On the other side of the court, Missouri is a completely different team when they leave Columbia. Fortunately for them, they haven’t had to do it often this season. They scored 75 in regulation at Wichita early this season before OT, and then in the last month they have scored 68 against UCF (neutral in FL) and 68 at Arkansas. I also think we see a slow pace tonight. A&M is 175th in the country in pace, and that gets slowed down even further at Reed Arena. They are ranked 254th in the country in home pace. With Buzz having the defensive screws tightened & the Aggies wanting to play at a crawling pace .. I think we are in for something special here. My favorite play of the night. Book it.
Score Prediction: Texas A&M 73 – Mizzou 69
FSU +7.5 : Florida State is feeling healthy and scrappy as of late. That is bad news for a Wake Forest team who is coming into this game struggling big time on the defensive end of the court. They are allowing 77.2 ppg in their last five outings. That is just horrific. Their defensive efficiency rank is now 216th in the country. I really worry for them in the post tonight. Can Carr and Marsh bang with the athleticism and toughness that a Coach Hamilton team brings? I don’t think so. I trust that Wake Forest will continue to be great on offense, but I know that FSU will get theirs tonight as well. Too many points to lay with the underdog on an upward trajectory, and the favorite having defensive struggles. Give me the Noles.
Score Prediction: Wake Forest 78 – FSU 73
TCU +6.5 : I was wrong fellas. The market is just going to keep discounting the Horn Frogs on the road. We will jump on it again! This scrappy bunch is full of road warriors. They love walking into an opponent’s arena and silencing the crowd. We backed them in Salt Lake City and Waco, and we aren’t stopping now. Especially, against Texas under Rodney Terry. The Longhorns do not have anywhere close to the same defensive intensity as they did before the Beard firing. The Horn Frogs will score with Texas tonight. I see this being a close affair throughout. If you are going to give me TCU with two possessions of cushion, I will take it every time. Sprinkle a little on the ML if you got burned by Duggan and the boys the other night in LA.
Score Prediction: Texas 72 – TCU 70
Best of luck! Let’s snipe this one y’all!!
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