(photo: Washington Times)
I will do my best to provide college basketball winners for you on a nightly basis. The majority of the nights we will try to keep it to three plays, but some days may ask for more. I recommend you play them individually .. however, never be scared of a little sniper parlay!
Season Record: 105-83
Season Best Bet Record: 41-20
1/17 Card:
Alabama/Vanderbilt u156
Wake Forest -2.5
Baylor/Texas Tech u145
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Alabama / Vanderbilt u156 : This number is dropping in the market. Should see some significant CLV. I see it at 154 at most books. I would not go below u153.5 if you have not already locked in. Alabama’s defense is far too superior for this to be the total when traveling to Vanderbilt. The Tide are ranked 17th in defensive efficiency for the season, and are 8th in the country in their last three games. Also, I think this pace will not be as up and down as one might think for an Alabama game. Stackhouse has the Commodores playing at the 201st paced team in the country, and he knows that his only path to success tonight is to control the tempo. Alabama’s interior defense is incredible, so we will likely see a lot of threes from Vanderbilt. I like our chances there as the Commodores rank outside of the Top 100 in percentage of points from the three point line. Only shooting 33.5% from distance as a team. It is also worth noting that Alabama’s offensive efficiency drops on the road. They are 43rd on the season in offensive efficiency, but they are ranked 120th in regards to road performances. Also, as much as I don’t want to mention it .. you have to include the uncertainty of how Alabama will deal with this off of the court news. Their teammate has been charged with an awful crime. Thoughts most certainly could be elsewhere. I have this total at 148.
Score Prediction: Alabama 79 – Vanderbilt 69
Wake Forest -2.5 : Best Bet of the night! We should also see significant CLV here. This is now -4 at most books. It is starting to lose value, so I would not recommend taking this over -4.5. I see a 6-7 point win tonight for the Demon Deacs. Wake is an absolute inferno in Winston-Salem. Their ppg jumps from 72.9 ppg on the road, to 81.9 ppg at home. Just a different animal. I love the recent play from Tyree Appleby. His scoring has remained virtually the same, but he has significantly improved his assist/turnover ratio in his last four games – 8.0/2.5. I see this as the night that Clemson’s luck finally runs out. Their regression should be coming in a strong way. They are 11-1 in their last 12 games, but after researching on Shot Quality .. the Tigers had a predictive 4-8 record in those games based on advanced shot selection analytics. The Tigers also have a really bad sore on their statistical profile. They rank 316th in the country in offensive rebounding. That stat alone will bring some losses throughout a season. Especially, on the road. Trusting the Deacs tonight. Appleby will be the difference. Best Bet.
Score Prediction: Wake Forest 75 – Clemson 69
Baylor/Texas Tech u145: This game will be a fist fight. Baylor & TTU had two matchups last year that ended on 127 & 156. When you take a deep dive into the 156 total, the pace was much slower that that number would suggest. The total was sitting on 131 with 2:30 left. A lot of threes and late fouls elevated that outing to an over. I have this game at 138. Shot Quality agrees with the under. They have it at 134.6. Texas Tech’s defense is as lockdown as it gets in Lubbock. They are 22nd in the country in defensive efficiency on the season at 0.897. Their rating improves from 0.944 to 0.866 at home. We have seen the Baylor offense struggle on the road this season. 62 points in Ames against Iowa State, and 70 points (25 pt 1H) against Marquette in Fiserv. There won’t be a push and pull on pace tonight. Both teams like to play at the same speed. I think we will see a lot of methodical half-court possessions. We will cruise under this total.
Score Prediction: Texas Tech 70 – Baylor 68
Best of luck! Let’s snipe this one y’all!!
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