(photo: Petre Thomas – USA Today)
I will do my best to provide college basketball winners for you on a nightly basis. The majority of the nights we will try to keep it to three plays, but some days may ask for more. I recommend you play them individually .. however, never be scared of a little sniper parlay!
Season Record: 107-87
Season Best Bet Record: 42-21
1/19 Card:
Charlotte/MTSU u126
Troy PK
Michigan/Maryland o142
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Charlotte/MTSU u126 : Best Bet of the night! Vegas is trying to attract some sucker money on the over here. They had a 125 number on this matchup earlier in the season, and the total ended on 149. They are tossing virtually the exact same number out there again today. You know what to do. Under is the play. I will jump into some analytics to back this up for you. Charlotte wants to play about as slow as you can possibly play in the shot clock era. They are 360th out of 363 teams in pace. They have a few outliers that are keeping them out of the cellar. MTSU won’t try to pull them out of this sluggish pace, as they are only 210th in pace. I am pretty confident that we see a low possession affair tonight. Also, these defenses rock. Charlotte has been a Top 80 team in defensive efficiency all season, and MTSU is trending that way after ranking 70th in their last three games (including OT win vs UAB). The Blue Raiders have one of the most athletic defenders in the country in Teafale Lenard Jr. He is averaging 1.6 steals and 1.9 blocks per game as a guard. These offenses are prime to struggle tonight. MTSU is a horrific jump shooting team, and as you can see below .. Charlotte is due for some major regression across the board on their shooting analytics per data from Shot Quality. We cruise under this total here.
Score Prediction: MTSU 61 – Charlotte 58
Troy PK : This Trojan defense is fantastic. They are the 58th best defense this season in regards to defensive efficiency, and are rate as the NUMBER ONE defense in the country in their last three outings. The most impressive part of that stat is that two of them were on the road. I will gladly back that defense in a PK home spot against a JMU team that has been sputtering as of late. The Dukes come in losing 3 of their last 4. Also, I think Troy’s offense could find some success against the Dukes’ ability to defend jumpers Here is a Shot Quality stat to back that up: “Troy’s Off the Dribble 3PT Frequency is 91. In 2022 they were 3-1 ATS against teams ranked between 211-280 at defending this play-type. James Madison ranked 220”. Troy in a close one.
Score Prediction: Troy 71 – JMU 67
Michigan/Maryland o142 : We saw a high possession affair in the first outing, and I believe we will get another one today. The Wolverines rank inside the Top 100 in pace, and the number would be much higher had they not played a ton of pace killers this season. The Wolverines have a really, really bad defense. This should entice the Maryland backcourt to force the issue tonight behind their rocking home crowd in College Park. Hunter Dickinson should absolutely eat tonight. He takes the Maryland matchup personal due to his high school days being spent at DeMatha. He unloaded on Maryland in the first matchup to the tune of 32 & 12. He should be in line for another big outing tonight. It appears that Donta Scott is dealing with the flu and could miss this one. This is not great news with the Terps already being down Patrick Emilien in the frontcourt. There are paths for points on both sides tonight, and I think the pace will be in our favor. Take the over.
Score Prediction: Michigan 74 – Maryland 73
Best of luck! Let’s snipe this one y’all!!
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