(photo: The Oklahoman – Bryan Terry)
I will do my best to provide college basketball winners for you on a nightly basis. The majority of the nights we will try to keep it to three plays, but some days may ask for more. I recommend you play them individually .. however, never be scared of a little sniper parlay!
Season Record: 118-93
Season Best Bet Record: 45-23
1/24 Card:
Ohio State/Illinois u145
Missouri +1.5
OU/TCU u138
UNC -4
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Ohio State / Illinois u145 : I think the defense will stand up tonight in Champaign. The Illini have the 14th best defense in the country in accordance with defensive efficiency rankings. That improves even more in front of their home crowd. They are 8th in the country in home defensive efficiency. This is on par with the Tennessee’s, Rutgers’, & Houston’s of the world. Elite stuff that goes unnoticed due to the short comings of the results of Illinois this season. The Buckeyes also have the itch to get into iso-ball on occasion. That will not fly tonight against an Illinois defense littered with elite on-ball defenders. Zed Key’s health is also a question mark. He is a game-time decision. The Buckeyes desperately rely on him for interior scoring and offensive rebounding. I could see Ohio State really struggling to score if he is out or limited. Ohio State pitched some nice road defensive performances their last time out as well. 63 points in Lincoln, and 57 points in regulation at The Rac. I suspect a physical Big 10 battle tonight. I don’t see both teams touching 70.
Score Prediction: Illinois 72 – Ohio State 68
Missouri +1.5 : Feed me this rat poison. This line makes zero sense, and I am walking into a trap .. but I have this as Missouri -4.5. I simply cannot ignore it. If the line was more reasonable, this would be the Best Bet. I do have trepidation because of the shocking line. However, there has been a recent flip in line movement over the last hour. We are now seeing Missouri -1. This is more than likely due to the growing belief that Kobe Brown will be active for the Tigers, and that Matthew Murrell will miss tonight’s game for Ole Miss. I personally feel that is a death sentence for the Rebels if Murrell is unable to go. Mizzou has a really poor defense, but Ole Miss will not be able to take full advantage of that without Murrell. He is their only scorer in double digits, and this is a team that ranks 255th in offensive efficiency WITH Murrell. Mizzou still remains one of the better offenses in the country and they come in ranked 16th in offensive efficiency. There will be too much of a disparity in the abilities of the offenses. Tigers get it done tonight.
Score Prediction: Missouri 73 – Ole Miss 68
OU/TCU u138 : Best Bet of the night!! The same type of home spot as we were discussing for Illinois earlier. The Horn Frogs are 16 in the country in defensive efficiency, and improve to 10th in regards to home defensive efficiency. I really like their chances of keeping Oklahoma under 65 points tonight. OU’s offense is really sputtering in their last two outings. They scored 56 on the road in Stillwater, and then followed that up with 60 at home against Baylor. Porter Moser is a great coach and will be aware of that trend. He knows that TCU is running in transition a lot more this season, and that he will need to slow this game down into the half-court for his offense to have a chance to win this game. Luckily, that is the scheme that the Sooners are most comfortable with. They rank 340th out of 363 teams in the country in pace. The Sooners will make this a crawl, and I think their defense can *limit* the Horn Frogs. They are Top 100 in defensive efficiency. Not great, not terrible. It is likely that Eddie Lampkin Jr. misses this game for TCU. That is also huge for OU/the under. He could have really impacted this game in the post on the offensive side of the ball, as well as on the offensive glass. These teams don’t rely on the three ball, which is another feather in our cap. TCU ranks 338th in the country in made threes per game, and OU ranks 237th. A lot of signs point to our under. This is also Shot Quality approved. This is one of their top total plays of the night on their value finder. The guys over there have this as a 126 point total. Have to love when great minds come together. Leave us the hell alone OT. Go defense.
Score Prediction: TCU 70 – OU 62
UNC -4 : I had this at -6.5, so some decent value in favor of the Heels. I think this will be a breakout game for Pete Nance in a Carolina uniform. Hubert Davis publicly said that he had a meeting with Nance last week to tell him that the Heels needed more urgency and aggressiveness in his game to get UNC where they want to be. There will be no better time for that to start than facing the Syracuse zone. Nance will be the point man near the free throw stripe in the middle of the Orange’s 2-3 patented zone. He is an excellent passer, and has a phenomenal mid-range jumper. I think he has the ability to leave a big mark on this game tonight. I also love the chances of RJ Davis hurting the Orange from deep. You have to shoot the three well to knock off Syracuse, and RJ Davis is shooting the lights out right now. He has hit at 50% or better in 6 straight games (18/32 from 3). Bacot has also found his groove again on the glass. 50 rebounds in his last three outings. I think the Tar Heels are about to hit their stride just like last season. Trust them tonight.
Score Prediction: UNC 79 – Syracuse 72
Best of luck! Let’s snipe this one y’all!!
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