(photo: Daily Bruin)
I will do my best to provide college basketball winners for you on a nightly basis. The majority of the nights we will try to keep it to three plays, but some days may ask for more. I recommend you play them individually .. however, never be scared of a little sniper parlay!
Season Record: 122-95
Season Best Bet Record: 46-24
1/26 Card:
MTSU +9
Iowa +3
UCLA/USC o131
Michigan +5.5
Arizona -4
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MTSU +9 : The FAU price in the market is still way too overvalued in my opinion. I got burned backing WKU against them last week, but I will step back in for this spot to hopefully cash in on this absurd price. The Owls should not be 9 point favorites to MTSU on any court in the country. I just don’t see it. The Blue Raiders are 18th in the country in defensive efficiency in their last three games. This stretch includes impressive wins over UAB, Charlotte and LaTech. They are lengthy and athletic across the board, and love “big game hunting”. Also, MTSU owned this matchup last season with two convincing wins. A lot of the same cast returned for both teams. FAU is a fireball straight up & ATS, but we are going to put out that flame tonight. This game will be within two possessions.
Score Prediction: FAU 70 – MTSU 64
Iowa +3 : I really like the Hawkeyes in this spot. Iowa’s offense is in elite form, and I believe that Sparty will struggle to score with them. Without Malik Hall, I think Michigan State will have a terrible time with Kris Murray. Kohler and Hauser are not athletic enough for the matchup, and Sissoko would really struggle defending Murray on the perimeter if he takes on the role. The Hawkeyes also have their sharp shooter going as of late. Payton Sandfort is 12-22 from 3 in his last four games. It is significant improvement from the beginning of the season, and he is finally playing like the guy we all thought he could in the preseason. Sparty is a team that you can bait into a jumping shooting war with you. Tyson Walker and AJ Hoggard are not shy about getting off their shots. Iowa has the better shooters if this turns into a shooting contest. Also, Michigan State showed significant cracks in their armor on their trip to Bloomington last time out. TJD, who has a similar game to Murray, had 31 & 15 on their frontcourt. They also struggled to defend the three point line. They allowed the Hoosiers to shoot 60% from three. These are two key areas where Iowa has an advantage tonight. I had this as a PK, so I will take the three points.
Score Prediction: Iowa 73 – Michigan State 72
UCLA/USC o131 : Best Bet of the night!! We look like we are on the way to some big time CLV in this one. This total moved from 131 to 134 in a matter of 15 minutes. Some heavy money rolling in on the over after we locked this in. Is the market taking notice of the Three Point Sniper Best Bet?! Kidding (kinda). I had this total at 137.5, so there is some significant value to the number that we locked in earlier. For those who are reading this now and are having to lock in 134… yes, I still condone the play. Vegas closed this total at 137.5 earlier this season in the matchup at Pauley. It did not come anywhere close to that number with a 118 final. I thought that 137.5 was a fair number for that game, and we can see that the market is driving this total back up near that number today. The first game was a bit fluky. UCLA was on 50 points with 15:52 to go in the 2H. They finished with 60 points. Southern Cal also sat on 4 points from the 17:39 mark to the 11:38 mark in the 1H. There were significant dry spells by both teams in the game, however the scoring was pretty back and forth outside of those stretches. I know UCLA will get theirs tonight, but I have been really impressed with the resurgence of the Trojan offense. Their backcourt eviscerated Arizona State in Tempe last time out. They scored 77 points in a big time road win. They were also 14-14 from the stripe. Which is important, because I think we see a physical game tonight. Trust me on this one.. and if you don’t .. trust the line movement. We are going over tonight. This total is Shot Quality approved. Head over to their matchup breakdown for more insight into their numbers!
Score Prediction: UCLA 71 – USC 67
Michigan +5.5 : This line should have been set at +3.5, so I will take the value. The Wolverines DOMINATED in this spot last season. Purdue was #3 in the country coming to Ann Arbor vs an unranked Michigan team. The Wolverines walked away with an emphatic 82-58 victory. Purdue is coming in ranked as the #1 team in the country today. Michigan will be fired up again for another upset win to start their road to an at-large bid. Dickinson dominated Edey in last season’s matchup with 22 points and 9 rebounds. Hunter always gets up for the big game/matchup, so I believe we will see his best version tonight. Purdue has also not been fantastic on the road in conference play. 3 point win in Lincoln, 2 point win in Columbus, and 1 point win in East Lansing. They could have lost all three of these games. It is a sign of a great team to come out with the win in all of them, but it it is still concerning that they don’t have the extra gear to get away from teams on the road. I think Purdue wins tonight, but 5.5 points is a bit too high. Jett Howard is questionable, but I am hearing that he will be a go. Play with caution if his absence will affect your read. I still like Michigan tonight regardless.
Score Prediction: Purdue 70 – Michigan 68
Arizona -4 : Wazzou will not run the double on Arizona tonight. The Cougars handed the Wildcats their only loss at the McKale Center this season. Tommy Lloyd will have his guys fired up to go on the road and get payback for that defeat. Arizona will be just too much in the post for the Cougars. The Wildcats had 19 offensive rebounds in the first matchup. There is no answer for Ballo and Tubelis on the Washington State roster on the glass. Gueye is a nice player, but he is often in foul trouble. Also, he has had two stinkers of outings in two of his last three games. Wazzou had the benefit of Arizona’s worst shooting game of the season, & combined that with hitting 12 threes. It was an outlier performance, and I suspect that Arizona will get payback tonight. 4 was too short at the open. I would still play up to -5.5.
Score Prediction: Arizona 77 – Washington State 69
Best of luck! Let’s snipe this one y’all!!
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