(photo: Alex McIntyre)
I will do my best to provide college basketball winners for you on a nightly basis. The majority of the nights we will try to keep it to three plays, but some days may ask for more. I recommend you play them individually .. however, never be scared of a little sniper parlay!
Season Record: 143-120
Season Best Bet Record: 53-28
2/6 Card:
Miami -3.5
Holy Cross +2.5
Kansas -4
Northern Colorado PK
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Miami -3.5 : The Canes were in a dog fight in Durham with Duke a few weeks ago. They ultimately lost the game 68-66, but there are some key takeaways from this game that points to Miami returning the favor tonight. For starters, Miami won that game based on the Shot Quality analytics (listed below). The model showed that they had an expected 80-73 win that night. Duke did not defend the perimeter well at all, and that is a biiiig problem when facing Miami and their loaded backcourt with shooters. Also, Duke didn’t dominate the boards against the smaller Canes as one would think. Duke gained 16 offensive rebounds, but Miami was able to snag 13 of their own. Miami is also undefeated at home this season, and we all know about Duke’s struggles on the road in conference. There is also an element here of a let-down spot after Duke’s emotional win over Carolina. They have a ton of freshman that play meaningful minutes that definitely enjoyed every second of that win and the celebrations after. The quick Monday turnaround has me questioning what form we will see from them. Canes comfortably.
Score Prediction: Miami 77 – Duke 70
Holy Cross +2.5 : Lafayette shouldn’t be laying point to anyone on the road. I will gladly take the 2.5 with the Crusaders. Also, I think that Holy Cross has the best player in this game in Gerrale Gates. He busted Lafayette’s ass last season at home with a 27 & 14 outing. Holy Cross won that game 79-74. Lafayette does not have a great defense. That is especially true on the road. They are 164th in the country in road defensive efficiency. The Crusaders have been playing better as of late, and I just think that these two teams are neutrals. I give Holy Cross the edge at home, so I will gladly take the 2.5.
Score Prediction: Holy Cross 65 – Lafayette 63
Kansas -4 : I like Kansas in this bounce back spot. I am not going to get super analytical here, but this is mostly a gut feeling. Texas is not fantastic on the road, and Kansas will make you pay for a halftime deficit like they had in Manhattan. They do not let you off of the mat at the Phog. Also, Bill Self will make this one personal to his players. The Jayhawks barely escaped this matchup in OT last season, and got absolutely boat raced the year before. Also, Texas is leading the standings right now. It is the Kansas standard to always win the Big 12. There is just such a massive coaching edge with Bill Self at home, and Rodney Terry on the road as an interim. Great spot to buy back in on Kansas.
Score Prediction: Kansas 76 – Texas 68
Northern Colorado PK: The Best Bet is making its first appearance in the Big Sky this season. I think this is a big night for the Bears. This is an awful scheduling spot for Weber State. The Wildcats played a double overtime thriller Saturday night in Pocatello, Idaho. Jones and Verplanken both played 45 minutes in this affair. Now, they are on a quick turnaround 48 hours later to play at elevation in Greeley, CO. There is a solid chance that we will see some sea legs from Weber State as they rely a ton of their starters to cover their minutes. I also think this is a game where Northern Colorado can expose them from the three point line. The Bears are Top 50 in the country in points from three pointers, and Weber State is 264th in the country in opponent three point percentage (35.4%). Knecht and Kountz will have monster nights for the Bears, and Northern Colorado will have a performance that will remind us of what we thought of them in the preseason. Also, Vegas is giving this one away. A 7-16 team is a PK against 12-11. They are trying to bait the large majority of the handle on Weber. We will roll with the oddsmakers tonight. This is also Shot Quality approved. They give a slight edge to the Bears.
Score Prediction: Northern Colorado 76 – Weber State 69
Best of luck! Let’s snipe this one y’all!!
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