(photo: AP – Chris Seward)
I will do my best to provide college basketball winners for you on a nightly basis. The majority of the nights we will try to keep it to three plays, but some days may ask for more. I recommend you play them individually .. however, never be scared of a little sniper parlay!
Season Record: 146-121
Season Best Bet Record: 54-28
2/7 Card:
Texas A&M -3
UNC PK
NC State/UVA o133.5
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Texas A&M -3 : Texas A&M beats Auburn for the 2nd time the season tonight. I just think this is a really bad matchup for Auburn. Auburn is a really aggressive defense, and due to that they foul at an exponential rate. They foul on 26.5% of their opponent’s possessions. That is good for 298th in the country. The Aggies are THIRD in the country in percentage of points from the free throw line at 24.4%. They shoot them at a 74% clip. This is just a dominant matchup edge that I cannot overlook. The Aggies were 20-24 from the line from the first matchup, and I think they will make 20 free throws again tonight. This Texas A&M team is hot, and are 11-1 at home this season. I do not foresee a scenario where Auburn can pull an upset here due to success I believe A&M will have at the line. Rolling with the Aggies.
Score Prediction: Texas A&M 72 – Auburn 66
UNC PK : Best Bet of the night! Similarly to the Aggies, I believe Tar Heels will run the regular season double on Wake Forest. While we saw an emotional let down from Duke last night (and profited from it!), I expect the opposite reaction from Carolina. I believe that they will be hungry to come out and win this important Q1 game to erase the memory of Saturday in Durham. This is about the time in the season last year when they turned it on, and Wake Forest is the perfect matchup for the Heels offense to let out their frustrations. Wake Forest’s defense continues to struggle as we have made our way to February. They are 207th in defensive efficiency. They also have zero post resistance to combat the threat of Bacot. Armando was 7-11 from the field, and 7-10 from the free throw line in the Heels 88-79 win over the Demon Deacons a few weeks back. Duke was able to find success against Carolina through their interior defense. They had 11 blocks against the Tar Heels. The Deacs do not have a similar threat. Their rim protection is some of the worst in the country. They are 291st in the country in block percentage (4%), and 230th in the country in opponent two point percentage (51.2%). The over is also worth a look because I think Wake Forest can find some success from the perimeter, but the Heels will walk away with this victory. This bet is also Shot Quality approved. Here is a preview of their Value Finder:
Score Prediction: UNC 82 – Wake Forest 76
NC State/UVA o133.5 : UVA should get whatever they want on the offensive end tonight. The Wolfpack are 143rd in the country in road defensive efficiency, and the Cavs offense has been clicking over their last 5 conference games. They are averaging 73ppg. That is impressive for an offense that likes to play a low possession game. I also think that NC State can keep up with the scoring pace that we will need. The Wolfpack are 17th in the country at 79.6 points per game, and have four scorers that average double figures. Including, UVA transfer Casey Morsell. He is having the best season of his college career, and will be ready to show his former team what they are missing. The way to score against UVA’s pack-line defense is to shoot over it. The Wolfpack have been successful at that this season. They have 201 makes from distance in 24 games, and are shooting them at a 35.2% clip. It is also worth noting that UVA’s defense is not as elite as you would expect for a Tony Bennett team. They just slid outside of the Top 50 in defensive efficiency. Go points!
Score Prediction: UVA 73 – NC State 65
Best of luck! Let’s snipe this one y’all!!
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