(photo: Getty Images – Sam Wasson)
I will do my best to provide college basketball winners for you on a nightly basis. The majority of the nights we will try to keep it to three plays, but some days may ask for more. I recommend you play them individually .. however, never be scared of a little sniper parlay!
Season Record: 152-124
Season Best Bet Record: 56-29
2/10 Card:
Dayton -5
New Mexico -6
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Dayton -5 : I respect the Billikens, but a Friday night home spot at UD Arena gives the Flyers the edge on this 5 point spread. Dayton is 5-1 at home in the A-10 this season. Their form has been pretty Jekyll and Hyde, but after the VCU performance I am comfortable in laying the 5 with them here. Yuri Collins is the heartbeat of this Saint Louis team. Not many teams phase him, but he has had some struggles with Dayton. He scored 4 points & had 7 turnovers in this matchup last season in UD Arena. The Dayton defense is excellent again this season with a ranking of 23rd in defensive efficiency. If you bother Collins, the Billiken offense won’t get it going on the road. We saw that most recently in their road loss to Fordham. Collins had 8 points and only 1 assist. I trust Dayton’s defense to get it done for us in this amped up Friday night home spot.
Score Prediction: Dayton 72 – Saint Louis 64
New Mexico -6 : Best Bet of the night!! Entering “must win” territory for the Lobos after their recent 1-3 skid. Joe Lunardi now has them in the “Last Four In”. A loss to Air Force would have them on the outside looking in entering next week. I understand the optics of a 1-3 slide, but the Lobos really aren’t playing terribly. They actually have been elite on the offensive end just as they have all season. The Lobos currently rank 28th in the country in offensive efficiency. New Mexico lost two of these games in down to the wire nail biters at the hands of Nevada. One in double OT, and the other on a last second winner by the Blackshear. The third loss was on the road in Logan, UT. The Aggies have one of the tougher mid-major home court advantages in the country. I think the Lobos are fine. The matchup edge with Air Force is huge. In the 81-73 win for the Lobos over the Falcons on January 27th, Air Force was unable to stop the three headed monster of House, Mashburn Jr., & Udeze. If you can’t limit even one of those guys, you have not chance to beat New Mexico. The even more concerning part is that Mashburn and Udeze went to the line a combined 19 times. Giving free points to the Lobos is a recipe for disaster. As you can see below, Shot Quality shows that New Mexico is elite at driving to the rim. The Falcons are just outmatched athletically and the success from the free throw line will continue tonight. Air Force is ranked 222nd in defensive efficiency, and their 135th ranked offense just won’t be able to keep up with the points that the Lobos put up. The number is not as high as I believe it should be due to the market’s perception of Air Force’s home court advantage in Colorado Springs at elevation. However, it just simply has not mattered this season. They are 1-5 straight up, and 2-4 ATS in Mountain West play at home. The only win coming against a completely depleted Wyoming team. New Mexico has a reason to hang a big number on the Falcons due to at-large implications, and I believe they do so. Lobos bring this home for us comfortably.
Score Prediction: New Mexico 77 – Air Force 65
Best of luck! Let’s snipe this one y’all!!
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