(photo: Michael Allio – AP)
I will do my best to provide college basketball winners for you on a nightly basis. The majority of the nights we will try to keep it to three plays, but some days may ask for more. I recommend you play them individually .. however, never be scared of a little sniper parlay!
Season Record: 176-144
Season Best Bet Record: 61-36
2/22 Card:
Providence/UConn o141.5
Minnesota +15.5 & o129.5
Wake Forest +6
Iowa -1
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Providence/UConn o141.5 : There is evidence from the previous game for an over in this rematch. The pace was well above what we need to clear 141.5. UConn shot 19 free throws while also attempting 63 field goals, and Providence shot 35 free throws while also attempting 49 field goals. This game simply did not go over because of poor shooting nights from both teams. UConn shot 36.5% from the field, and Providence was literally a hair better at 36.7. Vegas had the number that night at 142, but the game only ended on 134. They are keeping the number virtually the same for the rematch today, and I am excited to watch this Top 20 matchup while cashing an over. It should be a fun one.
Score Prediction: UConn 77 – Providence 70
Minnesota +15.5 & o129.5 : The Best Bet tonight is the over in this matchup. I also love the Gophers getting 15.5 points as well. We very rarely have had a double up in a game this season, but I am feeling an edge on both sides here. Dawson Garcia’s return from injury has been exactly what Minnesota has been hoping for all season long in regards to his play. The Savage, MN native scored 23 in his first game back against Penn State, and then added 18 points last time out against Illinois. Both of these games finished as single digit contests. The Gophers were getting ran out of the gym in his absence, so he was instantly a difference maker. His presence is felt mostly on the offensive end. Minnesota scored 69 points in each of these last two games. Those were the first times the Gophers had scored that many points since January 12th. The attention that he is getting is opening up the offensive game of Jamison Battle as well. If you remember from last season, Battle quite literally carried this team to some Big 10 wins. He has the freedom to do that again now that he has a capable offensive threat on the court with him at the same time. Battle scored a season high 31 points in Monday’s loss to Illinois. Maryland absolutely embarrassed Minnesota without Garcia on February 4th. An 81-46 final. So, we have a nice revenge angle here as well. While I believe Maryland will still be able to pretty much score at will, I think the Gophers will be able to keep up enough with Garcia in the lineup to cover both of these numbers for us. This matchup is also heavily Shot Quality approved. Here is a preview of their Matchup Breakdown:
Score Prediction: Maryland 74 – Minnesota 63
Wake Forest +6 : I would have this game near a PK on a neutral court. I cannot justify why this number is so high. Probably due to the ass kicking that NC State delivered to UNC at PNC Arena on Sunday. However, I believe there is too much recency bias baked into this line. It will be hard for the crowd and players to give max effort once again on a mid-week turnaround against a quality opponent. Also, Wake Forest has been damn good this season in the ACC. They have a 10-6 ATS record in conference. They are also 6-4 ATS as an away team this season. These two teams met in Winston-Salem about a month ago. Wake Forest led for the majority of the contest, and then NC State surprised them with a last minute 2 point victory. This will be another dog fight. I will gladly take the 6 points.
Score Prediction: NC State 77 – Wake Forest 75
Iowa -1 : I am not quitting on the Hawkeyes… yet. They disgraced us the other night with their performance in Chicago, but I believe they have another on-paper edge again tonight. Despite the home court advantage that the Kohl Center provides, Wisconsin is 0-2-1 ATS as a home underdog this season. Iowa has also been fantastic in bounce back performances. They are 6-3 ATS following a loss this year. Wisconsin defeated Iowa in OT way back on December 11th. However, that was before the Tyler Wahl injury problems. He just cannot seem to get back to form. That will cost Wisconsin tonight because I don’t think think Wisconsin can beat Iowa without another dominant performance from Wahl. Kris Murray is a matchup nightmare for Wisconsin, and the Iowa backcourt is supremely more athletic than the Badger’s. I think this is a bad matchup for Wisconsin due to the current makeup of the teams. Iowa evens the season series tonight.
Score Prediction: Iowa 72 – Wisconsin 68
Best of luck! Let’s snipe this one y’all!!
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