(photo: Ben Queen – USA Today Sports)
I will do my best to provide college basketball winners for you on a nightly basis. The majority of the nights we will try to keep it to three plays, but some days may ask for more. I recommend you play them individually .. however, never be scared of a little sniper parlay!
Season Record: 189-151
Season Best Bet Record: 65-37
2/27 Card:
FGCU +3
Northern Colorado -5
WVU/ISU o134
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FGCU +3 : The wrong team is favored here. I lean more to the KenPom number of FGCU -1. It has been wrongly reported (even on the ASUN website earlier) that Queens is hosting this game tonight. It is in fact on a neutral court in Kennesaw, GA. It is also worth noting that an NCAA bid is not obtainable for Queens this season. They are still in their D1 transformation period in regards to postseason play. It is a stupid ass rule, but worth noting when capping these conference tournament games. Dunk City had a non-conference slate that led us to believe they could make some noise in the ASUN. They beat a likely tournament team in Southern Cal, and also are one of the few teams to win on St. Bonaventure’s court this season. They certainly disappointed in conference play, but they have the big performance capabilities in there somewhere. We may have saw a preamble performance to a big time conference tournament run last time out for the Eagles. They scored 62 points in the 1H against Austin Peay in their final regular season game of the season. The Eagles PG, Isaiah Thompson, has many years of NCAA Tournament experience at Purdue. I trust him leading the show for us tonight. Dunk City in a close one.
Score Prediction: FGCU 76 – Queens 74
Northern Colorado -5 : I think the Bears even up the season series with Idaho State tonight. UNC is a different animal at home. They have really struggled this season, but they are 4-1 in their last 5 in Greeley, CO. It is a tough place to travel and play. They have one of the better student sections in the Big Sky. Idaho State is 235th in the country in defensive efficiency and will have all kinds of trouble guarding Knecht and Kountz tonight. Northern Colorado will score at will and I think that Idaho State will have a hard time keeping up. The Bengals are only averaging 64.6 ppg in their last five, and that recent output just won’t cut it tonight. Also, this would be considered an ultimate let down spot. Idaho State gave Eastern Washington their first conference loss of the season over the weekend at home. Traveling to Greeley, CO after that is a tricky spot. I think the market has this one right. The Bears get a comfortable win at home. This bet is heavily Shot Quality approved. Below is a snapshot of their Matchup Breakdown:
Score Prediction: Northern Colorado 77 – Idaho State 69
WVU/ISU o134 : This is my Best Bet of the night! Let’s make it four in a row. The possessions per game rankings are not where I would normally like to play an over in the mid 130s range, but I believe this number is set here for a reason. These teams cannot play defense without fouling. West Virginia is 299th in the country at fouls per possession at 26.6%, and Iowa State is 338th at 27.9%. These fouls are costly fouls. The Cyclones are 331st in the country in opponent points from free throws, and the Mountaineers are 339th. These trends were heavily impactful on the first meeting of this series this year. There were a total of 57 free throws shot in that game. Both teams also reached 50 field goal attempts. WVU’s Big 12 games are 14-2 in going over 134 points on the season. Including, the first matchup with the Cyclones. Their sporadic spirts can get a game sped up, and the fouls will certainly be there from both sides. Lastly, the Mountaineers defense really struggles on the road. They are 163rd in road defensive efficiency. Both teams are desperate for a W, and it should be a close one with a lot of freebies at the line. I love the over.
Score Prediction: Iowa State 72 – WVU 69
Best of luck! Let’s snipe this one y’all!!
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