(photo: Kenosha News)
I will do my best to provide college basketball winners for you on a nightly basis. The majority of the nights we will try to keep it to three plays, but some days may ask for more. I recommend you play them individually .. however, never be scared of a little sniper parlay!
Season Record: 195-156
Season Best Bet Record: 66-39
3/2 Card:
UNI -4 (1pm winner!!!)
American +6.5
Middle Tennessee State +7.5
Purdue -4
Arizona/USC u155.5
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American +6.5 : This should be a very close game from start to finish. Navy was a -4.5 favorite at home to American earlier this season and suffered an outright loss. The Midshipmen did exact revenge by a double digit victory on American’s homecourt, but the free throw splits were not the norm for either team. Navy is almost dead last in the country in percentage of points from the free throw line. They are 355th out of 363. They were 21-26 from the line in that victory of American. That is not a repeatable factor tonight. Also, American was 10-19 from the line in that game. They are above 70% for the year, so that was certainly against their norm as well. I think the first matchup is more indicative of what we see tonight. I see a one possession game either way. Especially, in a conference tournament setting with two teams who play low tempo basketball.
Score Prediction: Navy 65 – American 62
MTSU +7.5 : Another spread that is too high for a low possession game. North Texas was favored in the first matchup in Murfreesboro by 3, and walked away with a 56-51 victory. North Texas relies on it’s defense and forcing turnovers, but the Blue Raiders were able to turnover the Mean Green just as much in the first meeting. The Blue Raiders are a bad matchup for UNT in my opinion. They are lengthy and athletic, and have a similar gameplan for success as North Texas does. MTSU just normally likes to do it at a quicker pace. However, North Texas was able to grind this first game to a halt and I am trusting their ability to do so at home today. The Blue Raiders will hang around long enough to cover this number. This play is supported by Shot Quality. Here is a preview of their Matchup Breakdown:
Score Prediction: North Texas 61 – MTSU 56
Purdue -4 : This is my Best Bet of the night! There has not been much movement off of this line due to the KenPom predicted score of Purdue 65 – Wisconsin 61. However, I have full confidence that Purdue will win this game by more than 4 points. Purdue has stumbled as of late and their loss column has reached 5. What do the four teams that have created these problems for Purdue have in common? Athletic backcourts. The Badgers could be without Chucky Hepburn tonight, and Connor Essegian and Max Klesmit are not going to be able to athletically impose their will on Loyer and Smith. That has really been the only kryptonite for the Boilermakers. This is also an insanely juicy matchup for Zach Edey. He scored 41 points in 43 minutes last year against the Badgers. Crowl and Wahl will have no answer for him. I think the Badgers will also struggle to score tonight. They will not be able to penetrate and get their tough post baskets against this Purdue interior defense. The Hepburn injury is massive. Whether he sits or plays through the injury, it is going to expose the very poor Badger bench. Purdue is in a different class than Wisconsin. They prove it easily tonight.
Score Prediction: Purdue 70 – Wisconsin 60
Arizona/USC u155.5 : The Trojans will try to slow this game down at home. They are 155th in the country in tempo, and they know that is their path to success tonight. They allowed Arizona to get out and run a bit in the first meeting in Tuscon, and suffered a 15 point loss. The Wildcats also hit 12 triples in that game, and I do not see that being repeatable tonight. The Trojan defense has been finely tuned as we head into March. They have only allowed one team to exceed 65 points in their last six Pac-12 games. Love the under here, and expect this to be a very close game. This play is supported by Shot Quality. Here is an example of their Value Finder:
Score Prediction: Arizona 75 – USC 74
Best of luck! Let’s snipe this one y’all!!
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