(photo: Lee S. Weissman)
I will do my best to provide college basketball winners for you on a nightly basis. The majority of the nights we will try to keep it to three plays, but some days may ask for more. I recommend you play them individually .. however, never be scared of a little sniper parlay!
Season Record: 206-166
Season Best Bet Record: 67-42
3/6 Card:
UNCW/Hofstra u134.5
Furman -4
BYU/Saint Mary’s o128
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UNCW/Hofstra u134.5 : Best Bet of the night! There should be a walking pace in this one tonight. The Pride are 223rd in the country in pace, and the Seahawks are 321st. If you add a semifinal conference tournament atmosphere into the equation, I believe these teams will play even slower. Both of these teams also rank in the Top 75 in defensive efficiency. Another reason to love a low scoring affair tonight is that both teams love to take the worst shots in the game from an efficiency standpoint. Shot Quality’s data shows that UNCW takes the 13th most mid-range shots in the country, and Hofstra is at 73rd. They both also rank 302nd and 305th in the country in attacking the rim. Hofstra is 362nd out of 363 teams in free throw rate. There are a lot of factors in our favor tonight. The only trepidation is that both offenses looked awesome yesterday, but we also have to take in consideration the quality of opponent and tempo. I expect today to play much closer to their offensive norm. The market has pushed this number all of the way down to 132.5. I would still play it there, but I would not go below 132. I have this game as a 130 total.
Score Prediction: Hofstra 68 – UNCW 62
Furman -4 : The Paladins will be going dancing after tonight. Jake Stephens getting to play in the First Four is a narrative that has been floating around Twitter over the last few days, but the Moc’s defense will be sure to put that narrative to bed tonight. Chattanooga is ranked 278th in the country in defensive efficiency. The Bob Richey offense had no problems defeating the Mocs twice already this season. The slashing action of Bothwell and Slawson caused all kinds of problems for Chattanooga. The Paladins had a 20-25 free throw night in both games. That is a repeatable trend that we will see again tonight. The Paladins are a safe bet to clear 20+ free throws. This is Dan Earl’s first year leading the Mocs. He was unsuccessful at reaching the tournament in his 7 years at VMI. He also did not have a winning record in any of those seasons. Bob Richey has had 20+ wins in 5 out of his 6 seasons as the head coach of Furman. He has also yet to reach the “Big Dance”, but he finally will reach the top of the SoCon mountain tonight.
Score Prediction: Furman 79 – Chattanooga 72
BYU/Saint Mary’s o128 : This is the third time these two teams will face off this year. The previous totals closed at 129.5 and 130. The matchup went well under in the first game, but cleared 130 in Moraga in the latest meeting. 136 points in that one. The pace sped up and the defensive sets were not working as effectively. Also, there were 23 made free throws in that game, compared to only 13 in the first. I trust that the free throw number will be closer to the most recent affair due to the do-or-die nature of this game for BYU. Also, the Cougars have been unable to stop Mahaney and Johnson in either contest this year. If they are able to get going tonight, we should easily cruise over this total. This bet is Shot Quality approved. Below is a preview of their Value Finder:
Score Prediction: Saint Mary’s 69 – BYU 63
Best of luck! Let’s snipe this one y’all!!
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