(photo: Sports Illustrated)
I will do my best to provide college basketball winners for you on a nightly basis. The majority of the nights we will try to keep it to three plays, but some days may ask for more. I recommend you play them individually .. however, never be scared of a little sniper parlay!
Season Record: 237-185
Season Best Bet Record: 74-47
NCAA Tournament Record: 16-7 (Best Bet: 4-0)
3/23 Card:
Kansas State +2
UConn -3.5
FAU +5.5
Zags/UCLA u146
————————————
Kansas State +2 : The “Little Kid” Markquis Nowell busted Coach Cal’s ass on the way to this Sweet 16 matchup. The NYC native was not going to be denied his chance for glory in the Garden. Now that Nowell and the Cats achieved their initial goal of getting the Mecca, I believe that they have the tools to take down Izzo and the Spartans. If you are thinking that Izzo will be a difference maker, have no fear. His March experience has been baked into this line. Kansas State opened as a 2 point favorite, and now sit as 2 point dogs. This should at worst be a pick’em, so I will gladly take the 2 points here. We can talk about the playmaking of Markquis Nowell, or the shot making of Keyonte Johnson .. but I want to talk about the Kansas State defense. I love the intensity that we have seen from the Wildcats’ defense. They have forced 32 turnovers in the NCAA Tournament so far. It was the difference in the Kentucky game. They got blasted on the boards, but their defense was able to keep them in the game. Their pressure defense is aggressive and precise, and they are elite in transition on the fastbreak. They are also due for some positive improvement on their defensive shooting percentage splits (listed below). Meanwhile, the Michigan State offense is due for some offensive regression on their shooting percentages. I am betting on Kansas State to win a close one behind their pressure defense.
Score Prediction: Kansas State 70 – Michigan State 67
UConn -3.5 : Our Huskies were the most impressive team of the opening week of the tournament. I mentioned it in a tweet, but they just look so damn explosive. They can attack you from every level, and the deep rotation is full of quality players. The 2nd unit never seems to miss a beat. I believe that the attack will be similar tonight to the one they implemented against Saint Mary’s. They will be able to use Sanogo and Clingan to bully the Hogs in the post. Arkansas will finally feel their early season loss of Trevon Brazile in this tournament. Kamani Johnson and the Mitchell brothers just have no hope of containing the frontline of the Huskies. Especially, with Andre Jackson canceling out Jordan Walsh from a wing perspective. Arkansas was able to complete a comeback against an undersized KU frontcourt by dominating the offensive glass 15-7. I can assure you, that will not happen tonight. UConn is the best rebounding team in the country. Also, UConn is just the most complete team in the country in my opinion. Below is a quick snapshot of the stats that I used to come to that conclusion before the tournament even started. The Huskies march on the the Elite 8 rather easily tonight.
Score Prediction: UConn 75 – Arkansas 67
FAU +5.5 : This is my Best Bet. FAU is a very live dog here. I actually have them winning a close one. We have been all over Tennessee in the first two rounds. Including, the sweet, sweet victory over Duke. However, this FAU team is constructed to give Tennessee similar problems to the ones that caused them to suffer defeats throughout this season. The Tennessee defense is susceptible to slipping in efficiency when you spread them out. They can’t lean on their size, and their ball screen defense to get out to three point shooters is not strong at all. I learned that the hard way in the SEC Tournament when I was on the Vols against Mizzou. Mizzou was able to space Tennessee out and use their athleticism to get dunks and open threes. The Tigers were able to make 10 threes in that game. Mizzou is 17th in the country in offensive efficiency. Comparatively, FAU is coming into this Sweet 16 matchup ranked 13th in offensive efficiency. They will be able to use their guards and spacing to get a lot of the same looks that Mizzou did against Tennessee. As you can see below on a screenshot of the FAU Shot Quality team profile, they are proficient at spacing and nailing down three balls. I am still higher on the Vols than most, but this is a bad matchup for their personnel. The Owls move on to the Elite 8!
Score Prediction: FAU 67 – Tennessee 65
Gonzaga/UCLA u146 : It is going to behoove Mick Cronin to slow this game to a crawl. The Bruins are already without Jaylen Clark, and they are going to be playing this game with a hobbled David Singleton and Adem Bona. With knowing how athletic and explosive the Zags are, UCLA is going to have to find a way to slow this game down to give their defense a chance to shine in the halfcourt. They are not equipped to run and gun with the current state of their roster. This isn’t out of the norm for the Bruins though. They are 247th in the country in tempo. They welcome a slower pace of game anyways, so they will have no problem putting that stamp on the game tonight. Look for Mick to throw some half-ass three quarter court pressure to get the shot clock to around 20 when Gonzaga is starting their offense on a regular basis. This is purely a tempo play for me. I think that both offenses can score in the halfcourt fairly easily here, but Mick Cronin will hopefully slow this one down enough to get us below this total. No OT plz.
Score Prediction: Gonzaga 71 – UCLA 70
Best of luck! Let’s snipe this one y’all!!
threepointsniper.com 