(photo: Kevin C. Cox – Getty Images)
I will do my best to provide college basketball winners for you on a nightly basis. The majority of the nights we will try to keep it to three plays, but some days may ask for more. I recommend you play them individually .. however, never be scared of a little sniper parlay!
Season Record: 240-186
Season Best Bet Record: 75-47
NCAA Tournament Record: 19-8 (Best Bet: 5-0)
3/24 Card:
San Diego State +7.5
Houston -7
Princeton 1H +5.5
Xavier/Texas 1H u70
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San Diego State +7.5 : Brian Dutcher has been very deliberate about what the Aztecs’ plan is going to be tonight. This was a quote from his pre-game presser – “If we can turn it into a half court game — and this goes for any game, Mountain West games — I like our chances.” He has no interest in running up and down with Bama in this game. He knows that his offense is built to perform well in the halfcourt, and that his defense has a better chance of finding success if Alabama is not in transition and running downhill. This Aztec defense is elite. They are 15th in the country in defensive efficiency, and have tightened the screws even more recently. They have the #1 defensive efficiency in the tournament to this point. Say what you will about the seed lines that they have faced, but CofC and Furman have elite offenses. Charleston ended their season 21st in the country in offensive efficiency, and Furman finished 6th. Comparatively, Alabama ranks 34th. Now, I am not saying that CofC or Furman pose a bigger threat than Alabama .. but, I will say that this defense has the ability to make life tough for the Tide. Defensive intensity is in the DNA of SDSU. Below is a quote from Dutcher on how he views defense. I believe that SDSU will slow the pace & perform well enough on the defensive end to get us within the number here. This bet is also Shot Quality approved. See below for a preview of their Matchup Breakdown:
Score Prediction: Alabama 71 – SDSU 67
Houston -7 : This is my Best Bet! This is a very bad matchup for the Canes. I believe that Houston is going to wear them out on both sides of the floor. It needs to be said – Miami’s defense is just flat out not good. The Hurricanes are ranked 181st in the country in defensive efficiency. Meanwhile, Houston is the 4th ranked team in the country in offensive efficiency. The Cougars are going to put up an impressive number here. There is very little interior rim protection for the Canes. I am looking specifically at the Jarace Walker vs Jordan Miller matachup. Walker has a few inches and a 50+ pound advantage on Miller. Jarace is also the better athlete. Miller is going to have trouble keeping Walker off of the glass, and is basically going to have to give up some free attacks at the rim to avoid foul trouble. There is also a big matchup edge here defensively for Houston. The Cougars are 1st in the country in defensive efficiency. What is shocking is that Shot Quality shows that they are even getting a bit unlucky on that end of the floor (see below). With their size and interior defense, Miami’s only path to victory in this game would be to have a monster performance from deep. A lot of people are pointing to this and the shooting prowess of the Miami guards. However, you just don’t get good looks against this Houston team. They are 2nd in the country in 3pt % defense. Their perimeter defense is elite. Maybe more importantly, Houston is just going to dominate this game on the glass. Miami is only 157th in the country in keeping their opponents off of the offensive glass, and Houston ranks 4th in the country in offensive rebounding %. If Omier gets in any kind of foul trouble, this game will not be even competitive. Lastly, beware of the sexy public underdog here. 65% of the tickets are on Miami currently. However, the line has risen from Houston -6.5 at the open, to Houston -7.5 as of now. The spread is moving the opposite way of the percentage of tickets. You know what do do.
Score Prediction: Houston 76 – Miami 64
Princeton 1H +5.5 : Princeton is going to be in this game for a bit. They may not cover the full game spread, but I am comfortable in backing them in the 1st half. The biggest reason? Creighton is not built to create havoc for an inferior opponent. The Blue Jays rank 356th in the country in turning over their opponents. Princeton is also pretty good at holding on to the ball anyways. They are 74th in the country in not committing turnovers. Princeton can also handle their own on the glass. They are 17th in the country in defensive rebounding %. Granted, a lot of this is against an undersized Ivy League. However, it shows their commitment to not allowing free points to their opponents. I think Kalkbrenner will be able to have his way on the glass (purely from a size standpoint), but the Tigers should do well on the glass against the other Jays. Due to these turnover/rebounding statistics, I have come to the conclusion that Princeton will get off a very similar number of shots as Creighton. At least, early in the game. Also, Princeton has a great track record of competitive starts in tournament play in the first half: Down 1 to Penn in Ivy Semi, Up 4 on Yale in Ivy Final, Down 1 to Arizona in R64, Up 7 on Mizzou in R32. This team is not slipping behind and having to fight back. I believe they will be within this number when we hit the half.
Score Prediction: 1H – Creighton 33 – Princeton 30
Xavier/Texas 1H u70 : Texas’ 1H defense has been ELITE in this 6 game winning streak. Here are their past 6 defensive performances in the 1H: Kansas 24 points, Oklahoma State 26 points, TCU 26 points, Kansas 33 points, Colgate 32 points, Penn State 23 points. That is a 27.3 point average for their opponents in the 1H on this hot streak. Outside of Boum, I think Xavier may have a hard time getting out to a hot start. Nunge is going to have a lot of problems with the depth of the Texas frontcourt, and Carr & Rice can put the clamps on Kunkel and Claude. The Texas defense does trend down after halftime, so I am not as confident in a full game play. We will get under the number in the 1H of this one and get out of there. If you are looking for a full game lean, Shot Quality supports a full game under. Here is a preview of their Matchup Breakdown. Use promo code “SNIPER” for 30% off of all membership packages at shotqualitybets.com
Score Prediction: 1H – Texas 35 – Xavier 31
Best of luck! Let’s snipe this one y’all!!
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