(photo: AP)
I will do my best to provide college basketball winners for you on a nightly basis. The majority of the nights we will try to keep it to three plays, but some days may ask for more. I recommend you play them individually .. however, never be scared of a little sniper parlay!
Season Record: 245-187
Season Best Bet Record: 76-48
NCAA Tournament Record: 24-9 (Best Bet: 6-1)
3/26 Card:
San Diego State +2.5
Miami/Texas 1H u70
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SDSU +2.5 : If this isn’t your first time following me, then you know that I have a Creighton future that I picked up in the preseason – 28/1. However, this is a not a hedge. My pick on SDSU was made through the lens of not considering my future ticket. I believe that the Aztecs have a real shot here. The biggest reason? Defense. I spotlighted the Aztecs defense in the Sweet 16 write-up when we backed SDSU against Alabama. They were 15th in the country in defensive efficiency throughout the season, and 1st in NCAA tournament play to that point. They backed that the hell up. They held the explosive Alabama offense to 64 points and retained their top spot in the tournament as the best defense. Their perimeter defense was on full display. They are #3 in the country in opponent three point percentage, and held the Tide to just 3-27 shooting from distance. If they are able to take the perimeter game away from Creighton, the Jays are going to be in a world of hurt. Dutcher is such an excellent defensive coach. I am going to repost the interview below that I shared in the last article. In a “one day to prepare” turnaround, I also think SDSU has an edge here. Creighton is a much easier prep after facing Alabama, than it is going to be for McDermott and his staff to go from Princeton to SDSU. Completely different styles of basketball. It is always nice when the Shot Quality model agrees with my picks. Below is a snapshot of their matchup breakdown. I had this game as a PK. I will take the 2.5 points here.
Score Prediction: San Diego State 68 – Creighton 67
Miami/Texas u70 : This is my Best Bet! A lot of the verbiage will be the same in this post as it was against Xavier, but the Texas 1H defense is the gift that keeps on giving. Texas’ 1H defense has been ELITE in their now 7 game winning streak. Here are their past 7 defensive performances in the 1H: Kansas 24 points, Oklahoma State 26 points, TCU 26 points, Kansas 33 points, Colgate 32 points, Penn State 23 points, Xavier 25 points. That is a 27 point average for their opponents in the 1H on this hot streak. Similarly to Xavier, the Texas frontcourt depth will be able to swallow up Omier as they did with Nunge. Rice, Hunter and Carr are very engaged on the defensive end and they are not going to give Pack and his teammates the same room from distance as they had against Houston. I am still in shock over that Houston defensive performance. That will puzzle me for a long time. It is also worth repeating again that the Texas defense does trend down after halftime, so I am not as confident in a full game play. We will get under the number in the 1H of this one and get out of there. If you are looking for a full game lean, Shot Quality supports a full game under. Below is a snapshot of their matchup breakdown:
Score Prediction: 1H Texas 35 – Miami 31
Best of luck! Let’s snipe this one y’all!!
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