(photo: Villanova Athletics)
WELCOME BACK TPS COMMUNITY!!!!
I am so excited to be entering into our 4th season together! There are big things ahead this season that I can’t wait to share with you guys. More details on what that will be are coming soon..
We are going to keep the same strategy as last year when it comes to title futures. That strategy is to pick two mid-long shots in the preseason and advance them as far as possible in the tournament, and then following that up with national title pick once the bracket is released in March. Last year we advanced our preseason Creighton and Texas tickets to the Elite 8 (dangerously close to Final Four births), and then cashed our national title winning pick of UConn +1600 when the bracket was released. All three tickets afforded our community members with hedging opportunities if they chose to do so, and it was topped off with the +1600 cherry on top as One Shining Moment played in Houston.
This year we have two very quality teams that we are going to hitch our wagon to. The numbers that they are priced at in the market are asinine to me. The value will be cut in half within the first month of the season I’d suspect. These two teams have a nice mix of veteran leadership in the post, combined with highly talented backcourts. Let’s get into it!
Villanova +4600 :
Villanova is the team that I am most excited about in the country. +4600 is a bonkers number that the books are exposing themselves to. Everyone is asleep on the Wildcats after a lackluster first year under Kyle Neptune. Many pundits think that the magic left with Jay Wright. However, I don’t think these pundits were paying attention as closely as they should have at the end of the year. When Neptune was able to plug Justin Moore back into his starting five, the defense elevated to what we are used to seeing from the Wildcat program. Nova won 6 out of their last 8 regular season Big East games; including wins over Creighton and Xavier who had deep tournament runs. The only losses came at Providence (arguably the toughest place to play in the Big East) and against the national title winning, UConn Huskies. I believe that Neptune is the right man for the job. I am excited to back him this season.
The transfer portal class walking through the door is the top group in the country in my opinion. Villanova is adding TJ Bamba (Washington State), Hakim Hart (Maryland), Lance Ware (Kentucky), & Tyler Burton (Richmond). I am so excited to see Tyler Burton playing for a big time program. He is one of the mid-major players that I have admired the most over the last few years. He averaged 36.2 minutes per game last season and that resulted in the following stat line: 19.0 ppg – 7.4 rpg – 1.5 spg. His three point percentage dipped a bit, but he shot better than 36% in his previous two seasons. I suspect that the form from distance will return. He can stuff a stat sheet, but his athleticism as a defender and rebounder is where I think he will be a huge difference maker for this Wildcat team. I am also excited for the addition of TJ Bamba. Villanova lacked a true point guard last season. They have one in Bamba. I am excited for him to get into the Neptune/Villanova system. We know that he can score inside and out with his 6’5 frame, but I believe there is a lot to unlock with his facilitating. Hart and Ware will be welcomed additions to Eric Dixon in the paint. This team should be excellent on the glass, and will be a Top 20 defensive team. Book it.
At a +4600 number, you really just need a team to make it to the Sweet 16 if you are aiming to hedge. I believe this team has real Final Four potential, and this may be my favorite preseason future that I have ever placed based on the value. I believe that Villanova will compete for the Big East title this season, and will squarely be on the 2 or 3 line.
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Saint Mary’s +4700 :
It is Aidan Mahaney – Naismith Player of the Year – SZNNNNNN!! With the departure of Logan Johnson, this is fully Mahaney’s backcourt now. Randy Bennett is a wizard in development in the offseason with his guards. The freshman to sophomore bump is usually massive. Coming off of a 13.9 ppg freshman year, I believe that Mahaney is in line to exceed 20+ ppg this season. Mahaney has two key veterans returning with him this year in Alex Ducas and Mitchell Saxen. Ducas is one of the better on-ball defenders in the country, and Saxen has been a constant force on the glass during his time with the Gaels. There is belief that Augustus Marciulionis is going to move into the backcourt with Mahaney now that Johnson is gone. He will not bring as much offensive firepower, but he is on that short list of top on-ball defenders in the country with Ducas. This team is going to be hell to score against.
https://x.com/ltu_basketball/status/1683537318148227084?s=20
Ignore the missed bunny, but this is the type of pressure that you will expect to see from Marciulionis this season. The Gaels earned a 5 seed into the tournament last year with a 27-7 record. Many thought they could have cracked the 4 line. I suspect that their record will be better this season. They welcome Utah and New Mexico into Moraga, and really don’t play any tough out of conference road tests. They have a few big neutral site games, but I would have them winning all of them outside of Boise State in what I would consider a toss up. That is going to be a slugfest. Can I go ahead and take the under? Assuming they take care of business in conference as they did last year, I think we could be looking at more of a 4 or 5 loss team entering the NCAA tournament, and competing with Gonzaga for the regular season WCC title. That would have us in the range of a 3-4 seed. I think that a 3 seed is the most likely outcome for the Gaels this year. If you are going to give me a +4700 ticket on a team that will be pushing the 30 win mark, I will gladly add that to my portfolio.
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