(photo: Troy Athletics)
Season Record: 4-1
Season Best Bet Record: 1-1
11/8 Card:
Troy +9
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Troy +9 : I love this spot for the Trojans. If you don’t recall, Troy was one of the first teams to tip-off the season. They had a Noon opener against Fort Lauderdale (shout out NCCAA) on Monday. This allowed me to pop in and catch some action in a game that I normally would never even acknowledge. Troy excelled in two key areas of the game that you would expect a Scott Cross team. They played their patented pressure defense which forced many turnovers, and they also converted many of those turnovers into opportunities in transition. Troy was 41st in the country in forcing turnovers per SQ metrics a season ago, and they were 7th in the country in offensive transition frequency. This could be a very bad matchup for an Ohio team that does not spread the floor very well. Scott Cross is a fantastic coach. He has led the Trojans to back-to-back 20 win seasons. I fully expect him to pull out all of the tricks of his pressure defense for this matchup.
I was also really impressed with true freshman, Myles Rigsby, in transition. The dude is going to be a problem in the Sun Belt for years to come (portal pending). His athleticism in the open court really impressed me in the time that I was tuned into this game. Here is a clip of one of those finishes:
As we saw with FGCU, an underdog that can win the advantage from the perimeter has a fantastic chance of getting home with a number in this range. Troy is an excellent three point shooting team. They made 255 threes a season ago and return their top two shooters in Eugene and Muhammad.
Nine points is too many. I capped this as Ohio -4.5, so there is plenty of value here at the current number. This is a Best Bet.
Score Prediction: Ohio 75 – Troy 70
Best of luck! Let’s snipe this one y’all!!
threepointsniper.com 