(photo: Arthur Ellis / CSU Sports)
Season Record: 4-2
Season Best Bet Record: 1-2
11/9 Card:
Charleston Southern -2
Western Kentucky +7.5
UCSB -8
————————————
Charleston Southern -2 : Is this game as ugly as the Thursday Night Football game tonight on paper? Maybe. Is there an edge in this matchup? Certainly. There is always value in the crumbs. You may ask why we are backing a team that was 10-21 a year ago in their first meaningful game of this season. Fair question. While most programs in this scenario would lose any player of significance to the portal in the offseason, Barclay Radebaugh was able to retain three players who started at least 25 games a year ago. This includes Tajé Kelly (leader in rebounds) and RJ Johnson (leader in assists). Radebaugh was also able to secure DJ Patrick in the portal. The USF transfer was an absolute bucket in junior college, but was unable to carve out a role on the Bulls. Patrick had a breakout performance in his debut for the Buccaneers on Monday:
(ESPN)
While the opposition was nowhere near the D1 level, it was still a superstar performance in only 23 minutes of work. As you can see, Patrick got hot from distance. I can see that being a huge edge here tonight for the Bucs. A season ago, North Florida ranked 332nd in the country in allowing high quality looks from 3 per Shot Quality metrics. In addition, the Bucs were 66th in the country in open 3 rate.
I am not impressed at all with what Matthew Driscoll has done to reshape this Osprey roster for the 23/24 season. He lost his top five scorers, and replenished them by elevating his bench players and mixing in some portal guys. There is not a single portal addition that averaged over 5.6 ppg a season ago. Shot Quality also shows a very damning resume for the Osprey returners in many key areas that you have to have cleaned up to secure road wins:
(Use promo code “TPS” for a discount on a subscription to use these great tools!)
This line opened up at -1.5. I was lucky to grab a 2 before it elevated to -2.5. I see this game getting to 3 by tip. All of these numbers are good to play in my opinion. I would have Charleston Southern winning by 4 points on a neutral, so I see tonight as a 6 to 7 point victory on home court. This gym will likely be empty by the end of the December, but even these types of programs have a buzz in the gym to start the year. This is a Best Bet.
Score Prediction: Charleston Southern 76 – North Florida 69
Western Kentucky +7.5 : I am not seeing a huge disparity in these rosters for the 23/24 season. The Shockers have an incredible home court advantage, but that has inflated this line too far. Steve Lutz is in his first season with the Hilltoppers. He is one hell of a coach. This man is 2/2 on making the big dance in his time in Division 1 basketball. He won the Southland in both years that he was at Texas A&M CC, and won coach of the year in the conference last season. I also love what he did in the portal. A lot of coaches just focus on stats/analytics, but he also put an emphasis on bringing in players from winning programs.
Brandon Newman is a breakout candidate this year after coming over from Purdue. I believe that his has great potential as a dominant guard. Lutz also brought in Babacar Faye from CofC. We all remember the season that Pat Kelsey and his team had a year ago. I have seen Babacar play many times as a Charleston resident. Pat Kelsey likes to use a large rotation so he was unable to carve out a role over 15 minutes as a Cougar. This will be a big year for him with elevated minutes. He recorded a double double in WKU’s opener, and I believe that is just a sign of things to come for him.
This is more of a power rating play from me. I will not be diving deep into analytics for this one. Wichita State lost all of their double digit scorers from a season ago, and are also under a new head coach as well (Paul Mills – ORU). I believe it will take them a lot longer than a few days to be able to gel together enough to cover a spread this large against a quality WKU team.
Score Prediction: Wichita State 74 – WKU 69
UCSB -8 : Miles Norris is off to my Atlanta Hawks, but this Gauchos team is still primed for another tournament run. The main reason – Ajay Mitchell.
Mitchell will be one of the best point guards in the country all season long. It is also important that the Gauchos are going to be returning Josh Pierre-Louis with him in the backcourt. Pierre-Louis compliments his game so well, and they are always on the same page. There is also a major conference impact transfer that I am excited to see at the mid-major level. The Gauchos were able to bring in Yohan Traore from Auburn. He is a former 5-star recruit out of high school. Traore was unable to find solid footing under Bruce Pearl, but I am so damn excited to see what he can bring to one of the best mid-major programs in the country.
I am obsessed with the attention to detail on the defensive side of the ball in this program. A season ago they were 11th in the country in SQ Points Per Possession in the half-court, and 9th in the country in transition. That is as lockdown as it gets.
The coaching edge for UCSB in this one is so strong. Joe Pasternack has earned a tournament birth in 3 out of the last 4 years, and Jase Coburn is still searching for his first winning season at the D1 level. There will also be a huge home court advantage for this opener at The Thunderdome. This city is really rallying around this program and the NBA-level talent that they are producing. The Gauchos win in a comfortable double digit fashion.
Score Prediction: UCSB 78 – Portland State 66
Best of luck! Let’s snipe!!
threepointsniper.com 