(photo: BC Athletics)
Season Record: 10-10
Season Best Bet Record: 1-5 (lmao)
11/13 Card:
The Citadel +4
ETSU/Butler u145.5
FGCU/Pitt o145
Rider/Nebraska u149.5
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Citadel +4 : The Blue Hose will be a welcomed sight for Ed Conroy and the Bulldogs. The Citadel has really challenged themselves to start the season. They opened up their year at NC State, and then faced Boston College in Charleston for their home opener. The Bulldogs were able to put a real scare into BC. It was a 1 point game with a minute and a half left. The 0-2 record is very deceiving.
I really love the balance of Citadel. Conroy was able to land Quentin Millora-Brown in the offseason. That is an insanely good portal grab for a program of their stature. Millora-Brown started 57 games in the last two seasons for Vanderbilt at center. He was serviceable in this first two games this year against ACC opponents, but games like tonight are where he is going to be able to flex his muscle as a legitimate power-conference big. He has a massive size advantage over everyone on Presbyterian. I expect a double digit rebound night and some easy put backs. The Bulldogs are also a year older in the backcourt. AJ Smith and Madison Durr appear to have taken a big step from their freshman seasons. Elijah Morgan is a great compliment to Durr & Smith with his ability to shoot the three. He was 4-8 from distance in the game against Boston College. Also, keep your eye on Winston Hill. He was one of the better players for Presbyterian in recent years. He is now following in the footsteps of his dad and playing at The Citadel. His dad and Ed Conroy are great friends from their playing days together in Charleston. I expect Hill to have a big night in his former gym.
This is power rating play for me. I have The Citadel as a 2 point favorite on a neutral, so I will gladly take the 4 here. I am not giving much advantage at all to the PC home court. This game should be a PK at worst, and I think The Citadel pick up their first win of the season. This is my Best Bet.
Score Prediction: The Citadel 69 – Presbyterian 67
ETSU/Butler u145.5 : We have experienced positive CLV in most of the games we have played this season, but this is one that has gone the other way on us a bit. The current number now sits at 147.5. The movement does not scare me on this one. I fully endorse taking the u147.5 if you have not made a play yet. If there is any more movement in that direction, I may double dip.
We touched on it in our first article of the season, but I want to reiterate that the interior defense for Butler is some of the best that you will find in the country. Jalen Thomas and Andre Screen are causing all kinds of problems for their mid-major level competition. The block numbers aren’t jumping off of the stat sheet, but they are holding their opponents to 38% finishing around the rim. That is elite. The backcourt is also doing a fantastic job locking down the opposing guards from the perimeter. Posh Alexander has been picking up the opposing PG from full court on almost every made basket for Butler. Not only is this disrupting the flow of the opposing offense, but it is also taking valuable seconds off of the shot clock. Posh’s press will be crucial to our under tonight.
This play is SQ Model approved. Below is the prediction for tonight’s game from the model. Use promo code “TPS” for a discount on a subscription to access great tools like this one!
Score Prediction: Butler 77 – ETSU 63
FGCU/Pitt o145 : With Isaiah Thompson back in the fold for FGCU, I am in full go mode on continuing to attack the market until their games are priced properly. We were able to cash a ticket in their opener against Indiana, and I see an edge on the total tonight.
The Eagles have one of the most complete offenses that you will find at the mid-major level. I will double down on my Night 1 article and say this is a tournament team. Isaiah Thompson is not a mid-major point guard. Pat Chambers did one hell of a job in getting him down to Fort Myers from Purdue a season ago. Thompson has a full compliment of weapons around him to make this offense hum. Chase Johnston is one of my favorite shooters in the country. His release is very quick, and he probably has the best “get hot” trait in the country. Dallion Johnson has also added an extra threat from distance. He came on the scene with a 5-11 3pt performance at Assembly Hall. Andre Weir and Zach Anderson also pack a punch in the paint.
I am also excited about Pitt this season. The main reason is Blake Hinson’s continuous improvement. He has taken the reigns of the offense and is becoming more efficient in the way he is attacking defenses.
Bub Carrington has also been a lightning rod in the backcourt. He earned All-ACC honors after an incredible first week in the college game.
I had this total at 149, so there is plenty of value at the current number. Sit back and enjoy some great offense tonight.
Score Prediction: Pitt 79 – FGCU 70
Rider/Nebraska u149.5 : This play is being placed strictly on pace. I understand that both programs added some very welcomed additions on the offense end of the ball, but the pace is too much to ignore. I see a massive edge on this one.
Rider finished last season 311th in possessions per game. It appears that they will try to play quicker this season with their new weapons, but still only sit at 108th in this young season. We also know that Fred Hoiberg runs a methodical offense at Nebraska. The Cornhuskers ranked 198th in possessions per game a year ago. I believe that the offense could run even slower this season. It is for a good reason if you are a Nebraska fan. The Huskers added Rienk Mast in the transfer portal. The 6’10 Bradley transfer is one of the most efficient bigs in the country. He is a player that ensures that his team is getting the best possible shot every time down the court. That is huge for us from a clock perspective. He is accustomed to a slower pace from his time at Bradley, and really likes to play a chess match with his defenders on his post moves and facilitating. He is an efficient scorer and will definitely score at will on an undersized Rider team, but I have a strong feeling he will help us drain this clock tonight.
This play is supported by the SQ model. I have also included snippets of the Game Page below. This was very close to a Best Bet.
Score Prediction: Nebraska 79 – Rider 64
Best of luck! Let’s snipe!!
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