(photo: Lipscomb University)
Season Record: 13-11
11/14 Card:
Lipscomb/Tennessee Tech o146.5 (7pm ET – ESPN+)
Long Beach State +13 (10pm – MW Network)
App State +2.5 (10pm – Pac 12 Network)
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Lipscomb/Tenn Tech o146.5 : This is going to be a fun game for true Three Point Sniper followers. It is going to be bombs away from distance. Lipscomb comes into this game ranked 327th in the country in allowing high quality three point looks, and Tennessee Tech is even worse at 345th. Lipscomb is out to a hot start from distance this season. The Bisons have connected on 32 threes in 3 games. Tennessee Tech has been cold shooting the ball to start the year, but I expect them to heat up tonight with the lackluster Lipscomb perimeter defense. The Golden Eagles made 302 threes a season ago while shooting them at impressive clip of 36.4% as a team.
The pace will be in our favor tonight. Both teams ranked in the Top 100 in the country in possessions per game a season ago. This matchup was surprisingly low scoring last year year (which explains the Vegas line), but that was because of an off night offensively by both teams. The pace was still there to go over the total that we see tonight. The two programs also played the season prior and there was 165 points.
This play is supported by the SQ Model. When my thoughts align with the SQ model on a total, you know the drill. Let’s keep the undefeated total run rolling!
Score Prediction: Lipscomb 77 – Tennessee Tech 75
Long Beach State +13 : I am back to fade SDSU until the market properly prices them. Again, I still believe that the Aztecs are a phenomenal team. However, the market is still pricing them as if they are the same team from last year’s Final Four run. There was great vindication of this thought process when we bet BYU in their win against SDSU over the weekend.
Long Beach State can pack a punch. They walked into Chicago on Saturday night and picked up a huge road win over DePaul.
The Beach bring the toughness that you need to compete with San Diego State. The Traore brothers set the tone for this team in that department. They combined for 20 rebounds and 2 blocks in the win over DePaul. Continuing the defensive rebounding success will be huge tonight. They will need to build off of their hot start in that regard.
There is also a great balance in the scoring on this team. They have four players averaging double figures. The continuity in this roster is another reason why I am believing in this team to get us under the number tonight. They are returning the same starting 5 that they finished the season with last year.
I would be stunned to see Long Beach State pull off another upset, but I believe they can fight long enough to keep us under this number. I feel good about this one
Score Prediction: SDSU 77 – Long Beach State 68
App State +2.5 : Dustin Kerns and the Mountaineers will be pulling off the upset tonight in Corvallis. Wayne Tinkle and the Beavers have been susceptible to early season upsets (if you want to call them upsets) to mid-major programs. Since 2020, Oregon State has lost to Portland, Tulsa, Samford, Princeton, UC Davis, Portland State (twice last year lmao) in the opening months of the season. Many of these games were played on their home court.
Oregon State already ranks 314th in the country in turnover rate. That will be a major issue for the Beavers tonight if this trend continues. They are facing a Mountaineer team who is feasting on turnovers per usual:
As you can see above, travel will not be an issue for the Mountaineers. They have been in Oregon for several days. The team got to experience a Nike HQ tour and really had a lot of time to get their minds right after they blew a game they should’ve won against NIU. Just like with LBSU, App State brings back a hefty chunk of minutes from a season ago. That is crucial for me when backing a mid-major program on the road against a power conference team.
This play is SQ model approved. We both have App State in a close one.
Score Prediction: App State 70 – Oregon State 66
Best of luck! Let’s snipe!!
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