(photo: 247 Sports)
Season Record: 17-13
11/16 Card:
CofC -1.5 (11:30am ET – ESPN+)
LSU +1.5 (4pm – ESPN2)
Oklahoma State/St. Bonaventure o135.5 (6:30pm – ESPNU)
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CofC -1.5 : This one is already live. Go Cougs!
Score Prediction: CofC 74 – Vermont 68
LSU +1.5 : I am not buying this overreaction in the market to LSU’s loss at the hands of Nicholls. I have LSU as a slight favorite on a neutral, so I am glad to jump in here and back the Tigers in a bounce back spot.
I am concerned about the loss of Malachi Smith for Dayton. Last year showed just how impactful he was, and I believe that his absence will be felt even more this season. The transfer portal really ate at the depth of this roster. There is really only a 6 man rotation for the Flyers right now. LSU is a physical team that will force their way to the free throw line. The Tigers are 18th in the country in free throw rate per Shot Quality analytics. Foul trouble for Dayton will be a factor today.
Let’s jump back to the LSU loss to Nicholls. This was a complete fluke. LSU went down 44-20 in the 1H and nearly came back and won the game. Nicholls had some very fortunate shots drop in the 1H to get that run started. As you can see below, LSU winning by double digits was the more likely outcome than an outright loss. SQ graded it as a 75-59 win for LSU with an implied win percentage of 92%. I feel comfortable in backing them today.
Score Prediction: LSU 70 – Dayton 66
OK State/Bonnies o135.5 : What an absolute heater we are on with totals. A 10-0 run to start the season! Let’s make it 11 tonight.
Transition buckets and free throws are going to be the key in going over the total tonight. Oklahoma State comes into tonight ranked 219th in the country in transition SQ PPP allowed, and St. Bonaventure comes in at 166th. This will be a point of emphasis tonight from Mark Schmidt and Mike Boynton.
Both defenses as a whole are severely underperforming out of the gate. The Cowboys surrendered 70 points to Sam Houston State last time out, and the Bonnies allowed 70 to Canisius in their most recent affair.
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Score Prediction: Oklahoma State 71 – St. Bonaventure 70
Best of luck! Let’s snipe!!
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