(photo: Wisconsin Athletics)
11/20 Card:
Gonzaga/Purdue u155.5 (5:00pm ET – ESPN)
Wisconsin +3.5 (6pm – FS1)
Texas +5.5 (7pm – ESPNU)
New Orleans/Oklahoma State o145 (8pm – ESPN+)
UCLA/Marquette o138.5 (11:30pm – ESPN2)
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Zags/Purdue u155.5 : I have been extremely excited for this game since the preseason. It will be fun to see how this edition of Gonzaga stacks up against Purdue. The Zags and Boilermakers faced off last year in the Phil Knight Legacy tournament. Purdue spanked Gonzaga by a final score of 84-66. The total only reached 150 points even with 19 made threes in the game.
The pace will be in our favor again today. Purdue comes into this game ranked 142nd in possessions per game in this early season. That is elevated due to the level of competition faced to this point. The Boilermakers were 341st (out of 363) in possessions per game a year ago. They return essentially the same cast. Matt Painter will want to slow it down today and not get into a track meet with the Zags. Gonzaga’s offense is predicated on an up-tempo approach, but they only rank 221 in possessions per game this season. That is likely due to implementing many new faces. Let’s take advantage of that now from an under perspective.
I love our chances at going under this total due to Gonzaga not being up to full speed and Purdue trying to slow the game down. This play is Shot Quality model approved. Below is a preview of the Value Finder. Use Promo Code “TPS” for 10% off of your first month on a subscription.
Score Prediction: Purdue 77 – Gonzaga 72
Wisconsin +3.5 : This was a gift of a line from the oddsmakers in my opinion. I have Wisconsin as a one possession favorite on a neutral, so I will gladly take the points here.
The Badgers have their backs against the wall after a 2-2 start to the season. There was a ton of hype surrounding this team in the offseason due to Greg Gard returning his entire starting five. They have obviously underperformed, but the Badgers probably have faced the toughest gauntlet of a schedule so far this year. There is no shame in losing to Tennessee at home. The Vols have a legit Final Four caliber roster. There is also no shame in losing a true road game at Providence. I will continue to say that is the toughest road test in the country. SQ analytics actually show that Wisconsin had an implied 65% win percentage in that game based on the looks created. The crowd and momentum played a huge factor. There is no reason to panic on my preseason power rating on Wisconsin based off of these factors. I actually think the production that we are seeing from A.J Storr makes Wisconsin a bigger factor in the national landscape down the road than I did before the season started. I was unsure of what his role would be on this team, but he has earned big minutes and is providing great production. His athleticism will be a huge factor today.
We bet on UF against UVA in the opening week. It was a soul crushing late game loss. Florida had an opportunity to take the lead in the game on their last two offensive possessions, but turned the ball over carelessly in both situations. The Hoos were lucky to walk away with the win in that one. SQ data backs that up. Their implied win percentage was 18% based on the SQ score. I did not leave that game with a changed opinion on UVA. I still have them lower in my power ratings than the books do.
This game is going to be played at a slow pace tonight. It will be tight and will likely come down to the last possession either way. Getting the full +3.5 makes this one of my favorite bets of the season to this point. SQ model agrees with this. The model shows a 62.2-61.6 final in Wisconsin’s favor. This is my Best Bet. Badgers outright.
**Not related to gambling, but wanted to share this information because I was touched by this story while doing research on the game. Wisconsin is playing for a higher purpose tonight. They have recently received news that their former teammate, Walt McGrory, is facing a tougher battle than he ever has before with his cancer. Greg Gard started off his presser after the RMU game talking about Walt. That is how big of an impact he has made on his teammates and coaches in Madison. If you have the means, please donate to help Walt and his family at https://www.gofundme.com/f/walt-mcgrorys-fight-against-osteosarcoma.
Score Prediction: Wisconsin 64 – UVA 61
Texas +5.5 : The Texas performance yesterday probably led to 1-1.5 points baked into this line in favor of UConn. We will not fall into that trap. While it was obviously not ideal to have to hit a buzzer beater to knock off the mess that is Louisville, there is still reason to believe they can keep this one close today.
The Texas offense is one of the more impressive units that I have seen in the game this year.
These stat profiles show that the Longhorns are extremely efficient on that end of the court right now. They are also 2nd in the country in SQ PPP attacking the rim, 9th in the country in SQ PPP on catch & shoot 3’s, and 18th in the country in SQ PPP on off of the dribble 3’s. This offense will keep them in the game tonight.
This will be UConn’s first test of the season facing an offense of this caliber. I realize that they played IU yesterday, but that offense has been pathetic this season to put it lightly. The Huskies are still working a few new pieces into this system and I do not think their defense is elite just yet. It will get there, but not yet. While most metrics are showing that they are exceling on that end of the court, the Huskies actually have displayed one sign of vulnerability. They are 145th in the country in SQ PPP allowed in transition. Texas has the roster to exploit that. Even the bigs run the floor.
The Texas offense does enough for us to keep this one close. I think they have a punchers chance to win this game. I personally have a little Wisconsin/Texas ML parlay tonight. Hook ‘Em!
Score Prediction: UConn 74 – Texas 71
New Orleans/Oklahoma State o145 : I touted Jordan Johnson from New Orleans as one of the best shooters in the country in the preseason. I have not backed down from that stance. He is a sniperrrrrrrr
Johnson went for 31 (6-12 3pt) last time out against Loyola. He was a major reason why we backed the Privateers as a 15 point dog in that one and they almost pulled out an outright victory. I fear for their defense in a bigger way in this one, but Johnson’s ability to knock down shots against tough defenses gives me confidence that the Privateers score enough to get us over the total tonight.
The pace should also be in our favor. New Orleans loves to run and Oklahoma State can always get baited into a track meet. Especially in Stillwater. This bet is also SQ Model approved. Let’s score some points!
Score Prediction: Oklahoma State 81 – New Orleans 70
UCLA/Marquette o138.5 : Marquette is one of the few teams in the country who can force their tempo to the fullest no matter the opponent. This is due to having an All-American at the point. Tyler Kolek has one of the best outlet pass skillsets in the country. His ability to get the Golden Eagles in transition before the defense gets back is truly impressive.
This is a video of Kolek from a few years before he turned into an All-American. He has always had this skillset and has even improved on these abilities since then. I expect Marquette to use Kolek to get the Golden Eagles in transition often today. It would be beneficial for them to force the action instead of trying to succeed in the half-court. A large reason for that is Adem Bona’s ability to protect the rim. Marquette does not want to see him in the half-court often.
This play has been steamed in the market since I tweeted it out earlier. I still like it at the current number. I would not advise playing it over 141.5 though. Most of the value has been sucked out at this point.
Score Prediction: Marquette 75 – UCLA 69
Best of luck! Let’s snipe!!
threepointsniper.com 