(photo: BVM Sports)
11/21 Card:
Gonzaga -12.5 (2:30pm ET – ESPN2)
Illinois State -1 (5pm – FloHoops)
Tennessee +3 (8pm – ESPN)
Marquette +5 (10:30pm – ESPN)
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Gonzaga -12.5 : The Zags gave Purdue one hell of a fight yesterday. They led for the majority of the 1H, but crumbled late in the 2H due to a flurry of open looks rimming out.
As you can see from the image above, there was only one big discrepancy in the game from the real score to the SQ score. It was the 2H for the Zags. Ryan Nembhard was a maestro in creating many open opportunities for his teammates against a great defense. I believe that he will find even more success today against a Syracuse defense that I do not believe in.
Graham Ike was super impressive yesterday. We loved him as a Cowboy, but it was great to see him excel on the big stage. He really showed the full package. Ike was able to stretch the floor and knock down two big time threes with Edey in drop coverage.
Ike gained the respect of Painter and they started to get out and cover him on the perimeter after that. This enabled the Zags to have a better chance to compete on the boards. They outrebounded the Boilermakers 13 to 8 on the offensive glass.
There will be little to no resistance from Syracuse against this high powered Gonzaga offense. The total is high, but it is for good reason. Zags win in blowout fashion.
Score Prediction: Gonzaga 87 – Syracuse 70
Illinois State -1 : Depth will be a huge factor in this back-to-back at the Gulf Coast Showcase. The Redbirds are deep. Illinois State is playing a 9-man rotation now that Darius Buford is healthy and back in the fold. It is quality depth as well. Any guess on who the 9th man off of the bench is? It is a 20+ min guy from the Big 10 a season ago. Jordan Davis has transferred over from Wisconsin but is buried on the bench behind this quality depth. Poindexter, Banks and Buford is as good as it gets for a lower tier mid-major backcourt. Malachi Poindexter (UVA transfer) is one of the most underappreciated shooters in the country. He was 94.5% from the stripe and 37.7% from distance as season ago for Illinois State.
High Point is really only getting production from 6 guys right now. They will have no choice but to dig into their bench today in a B2B scenario. The Redbirds should be able to pounce when they do.
Illinois State is also performing well in many metrics that I like to see from a mid-major team of this caliber. They are 33rd in the country in offensive rebounding percentage and 46th in the country in free throw rate. The Redbirds are also 53rd in the country in defensive efficiency. This is a complete team.
The market has not caught up with just how good this team is. Redbirds win by a few possessions. This is my Best Bet.
Score Prediction: Illinois State 73 – High Point 67
Tennessee +3 : As we mentioned earlier, Purdue was a bit fortunate to escape comfortably against Gonzaga yesterday. I understand that is a bit silly to say since they won by double digits. However, they were a few Gonzaga threes dropping away from being in a dog fight at the end of that game. Their performance on the defensive end gives me a lot of questions coming into today.
How will Fletcher Loyer compete against the likes of Knecht/Ziegler/Vescovi? He looked like a huge liability against the Gonzaga backcourt yesterday. That is not a big change from a season ago. His inability to compete on that end was a major reason for their late season collapse. Dalton Knecht will likely be his draw to start the game. Good luck, Fletcher.
Edey also struggled on the defensive end against Graham Ike for large portions of the game yesterday. I believe that Rick Barnes has a great blueprint to implement similar sets for Josiah Jordan-James today thanks to Mark Few.
I see this game as a PK on a neutral court. I will gladly take the three points. This bet is SQ Model approved. Below is a preview of the Value Finder tool:
Score Prediction: Tennessee 67 – Purdue 66
Marquette +5 : Man, do I love this team. The Golden Eagles support one another more than any group that I have seen in recent memory. Every pass, block, charge, steal, shot made, etc is celebrated by everyone else in the blue and gold. I truly believe that goes a long way in an MTE. When you are playing back-to-back days, sometimes you need a “pick me up” from your brothers to get you going when your energy tank is running low.
Marquette can also hoop to go along with their great chemistry. The emergence of David Joplin is so crucial to this team continuing their success from a season ago.
Joplin was 5-11 from distance yesterday against UCLA. Most of these threes were made at crucial points in the game. Having a knockdown shooter on the same team as Tyler Kolek is a problem for any defense. Kolek struggled during many parts of the game yesterday, but was still able to record 9 assists. His greatness truly is underappreciated.
I like Ighodaro’s chances to influence the Dickinson matchup in a positive way for Marquette. His athleticism will be a big problem for Hunter. If Ighodaro is able to stay at home and not bite at Dickinson’s post moves, then Marquette will be in good shape to push for a W. He has to stay out of foul trouble for the Golden Eagles to have a chance.
I do think Kansas wins a close one tonight, but this was a buy spot for me with Marquette at +5. I have this as Kansas -2.5 on a neutral. The value is too much to pass on an excellent team playing with this type of chemistry right now. The Golden Eagles have a punchers chance.
Score Prediction: Kansas 78 – Marquette 76
Best of luck! Let’s snipe!!
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