(photo: Andrew Ferguson/Tennessee Athletics)
11/22 Card:
Tennessee +1.5 (2:30pm ET – ESPN)
Marquette +3.5 (5pm – ESPN)
WVU/UVA o120 (6pm – FS1)
Stanford/Arkansas u154.5 (7:30pm – ESPNU)
Pittsburgh +5.5 (9:30pm – ESPN2)
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Tennessee +1.5 : I walked out of yesterday’s game against Purdue more impressed with Tennessee than I was entering it. That is wild to say after a loss. However, I think they were the better team in the game. The result was decided by the whistle. There should never be an instance where a team shoots 48 free throws in a college basketball game. It was a disgrace. I do think there will be a word into the officiating crew to give the whistles a bit of a break today. That favors the Vols in a matchup with Kansas.
If you are able to get physical with Dickinson and McCullar, there is really nowhere else to turn on the Jayhawk roster for offensive production. This is not the #1 team in the country as their ranking states. The role players on this team are simply not getting the job done. Nicolas Timberlake was a highly touted transfer pull from Towson. He is only shooting 30.4% from the field on the year and has not exceeded 12 minutes in a game at the Maui Invitational. It also appears that it will take a while for Johnny Furphy and Elmarko Jackson to get accustomed to the college game. They are simply not ready for war with this veteran Tennessee team. The depth advantage lies heavily with the Vols.
Dalton Knecht and Jordan Gainey have added a much needed perimeter threat to the Tennessee roster.
They both eclipsed the double digit made threes mark on the young season after yesterday’s game. Their ability to stretch the floor and knock down shots has been very beneficial for JJJ and Mashack getting into the lane and finishing around the rim. The new and improved offense makes the Vols very dangerous this year.
It is also worth noting that Kansas played the late game yesterday. This game today is being played at 09:30am local time. Not having the proper rest and recovery and then going out and getting pushed around by Tennessee will certainly be a big challenge for Kansas to overcome. Vols get the W. This is my Best Bet.
Score Prediction: Tennessee 74 – Kansas 68
Marquette +3.5 : You will have to drag me off of this Golden Eagle train. This is one of my favorite teams of the 23/24 season. Watching them completely dismantle Kansas last night was some of the most fun I have had watching a game this year.
Marquette plays with swagger.
There is energy like this pouring out of every single player on this team. That is what impresses me the most about Marquette. Even when Sean Jones and Chase Ross enter from the bench, the energy is still palpable. I mentioned the togetherness of this team in the write-up yesterday. Some people laugh at me when I say this, but it is a very important handicapping metric in an MTE like this.
The culture all stems from Shaka Smart. Here was his quote following the game regarding his dispute with Bill Self”
“The one thing we’re gonna make clear is we don’t take a back seat to anyone,” Smart said to reporters after the game. “That’s how we go about things, and that’s the only way you beat Kansas. I’ve learned the hard way against Kansas. You gotta stand up to them.”
The Golden Eagles will be ready for the fight today with Purdue. There are many matchup edges they can exploit here. I believe that Ighodaro is going to be a problem for Edey in coverage. He is going to have to come out and respect his play making ability. That will leave the lane open for their athletic guards to blow by Fletcher Loyer and Braden Smith. I also think that Shaka can use Sean Jones in a similar way that Rick Barnes did with Zakai Zeigler on Smith yesterday. The full-court pressure defense was a problem for him.
This game is a coin flip for me. I will gladly take the 3.5 points. Ring Out Ahoya.
Score Prediction: Marquette 71 – Purdue 70
WVU/UVA o120 : Taking an over in a UVA game is always an adventure. The Hoos only scored 41 points when we cashed our Wisconsin best bet over them. However, I believe there are many avenues to points for them against the disjointed WVU defense.
West Virginia is still searching for an identity after a tumultuous offseason. The defensive issues they are working through will be a huge problem for them today against the methodical UVA offense. WVU is 155th in the country in SQ PPP allowed off-screen and 217th in the country in SQ PPP allowed on cuts. Tony Bennett will exploit that today.
West Virginia should have an edge in the post offensively. Jesse Edwards and Quin Slazinski can watch the Wisconsin and Florida tape on UVA and pick-up on ways to attack the Cavs. The UVA defense has impressive analytics from a results standpoint this year. However, SQ regression analysis shows they are due to have more shots drop against them sooner than later.
Pace will not be our friend in this play, but I believe that the efficiencies both offenses will have gets us over the total. This bet is SQ Model approved. It predicts 68.8-64.1 final in UVA’s favor. I personally think UVA gets close to covering in this one.
Score Prediction: UVA 68 – WVU 57
Stanford/Arkansas u154.5 : This is another bet that makes you sweat when you place it. Taking an under in a game where one team averages 87.8 ppg and the other averages 84.3 ppg. I am clinging onto the belief that both defenses make an impact on this game today.
Both team enter tonight’s game as Top 50 SQ PPP defenses. Stanford has been elite in protecting the rim (7th), and Arkansas has been elite in defending the three point line (35th). They will each be the toughest defense that the other has faced this year. It could be a shock to the system in the first few minutes of this game. Especially on a neutral court in the Bahamas. A sluggish start would mean a lot for a total this high.
Pace again will not be our friend here. However, I believe both defenses do enough to get us under this total. I hate going against pace analytics twice in a day, so you know I love these plays. This is also one of the biggest edges of the night on the SQ Model. Below is a preview of the Value Finder tool. Use promo code “TPS” for 10% off of your first month of a subscription:
Score Prediction: Arkansas 77 – Stanford 72
Pitt +5.5 : I do not see 5.5 points of difference in these teams on a neutral right now. The books must still have the jury out on Bub Carrington. I do not. This kid is one of the best guards in the ACC.
The analytic sites are starting to support this. The Carrington + Hinson duo is an almost impossible task for a defense to attack. If you show too much attention to one of them, then the other attacks. The Panthers also have a frontline that can compete with the trees from Florida. Federiko and the Diaz Graham brothers are exceptional on the glass and defensive end of the court.
This is an incredible stat profile for Pitt. The Panthers are the real deal. I think they keep this game tight throughout. Punchers chance to win.
Score Prediction: Florida 78 – Pitt 76
Best of luck! Let’s snipe!!
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