(photo: Pitt Athletics)
11/28 Card:
LSU +1.5 (7:00pm ET – ESPN2)
Mizzou/Pitt o146.5 (7:30pm – ESPNU)
Ole Miss -1 (9pm – ESPN2)
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LSU +1.5 : The Tigers are going to win this game in the paint. Syracuse is struggling on the boards to start the year. That may be an understatement.
LSU will be able to feast on the offensive glass. The Tigers are 47th in the country in offensive rebounding rate at 33% per SQ metrics. Will Baker and Jalen Reed bring talent and athleticism that the Orange just cannot matchup with in the frontcourt. The same is true defensively. The Bayou Bengals are elite at protecting the rim.
This will force Syracuse to shoot from the outside and that is just not a recipe for success for this roster. The Orange are only shooting 28.8% from distance. This includes a 1-16 start to the season for Notre Dame transfer, J.J Starling. This game screams hero ball from Judah Mintz and I just do not seeing that being enough to get past a quality LSU team.
Let’s also not forget the Maui hangover for Cuse.
This game is SQ Model approved. Below is a preview of the Value Finder tool. Use promo code “TPS” for 10% off of your first month subscription to be able to use these fantastic tools.
Score Prediction: LSU 76 – Syracuse 73
Mizzou/Pitt o146.5 : This is a three point sniper game if I’ve ever seen one. We are going to Mike Breen *BANG* our way over the total tonight. These two teams love to let it fly from distance. Mizzou enters tonight 27th in the country in 3pt attempt rate at 46.9% per possession. Pitt is not far behind them at 31st with a 46.3% rate. These attempts are falling as well. Pitt is 9th in the country in three pointers made per game, and Mizzou checks in at 23rd. This game could very well turn into a three point shooting contest. We love that.
I also love the facilitating from both teams. That especially rings true when I talk about Bub Carrington. This is one of the most impressive freshman guards I have seen in a long, long time.
The facilitating is assisted by elite spacing from both teams. Mizzou is ranked 15th in the country in neutral spacing on offense per SQ metrics, and Pitt is 23rd. There should be many open looks tonight.
Tempo is also in our favor. Mizzou’s tempo stat is sitting in the low 200’s, but that is skewed by the small sample size of games in which they faced slow playing opponents in the majority of them. Just as we spoke about with Northwestern yesterday. Make no mistake about it, Dennis Gates wants the Tigers to run.
This bet is SQ Model approved. The projection is 77.6-76 in favor of Pitt. I think Mizzou has a chance to cover as well, but my heavy edge is with the total. We gave this out last night, but I would still play it at the current number of 148. This is my Best Bet.
Score Prediction: Pitt 79 – Mizzou 75
Ole Miss -1 : I am a fan of NC State long term this season. They will be scrappy in the ACC. However, I have been excited for this fade spot since Friday night. This team completely lost their minds in the final game of their MTE in Vegas. The Wolfpack had three players ejected, as well as head coach Kevin Keatts. They were not able to handle their emotions with poise once BYU went on their insane 2H run. The team completely unraveled. Heading to a hostile SEC environment for your next game is not the best situation to “get right”. Chris Beard has Rebs fans believing.
Ole Miss will have a significant advantage in the paint in this game. Jaemyn Brakefield is a matchup nightmare for DJ Burns Jr. This especially rings true when NC State goes with their “big” rotation where Burns is at the 4. That means Brakefield will have 7’5 Jamarion Sharp on the help side. Sharp has been one of the best, if not the best, shot blockers in the country for many years now.
Allen Flanigan is playing like an SEC Player of the Year candidate. He was once viewed as a first round prospect at Auburn before he suffered through some injuries. It appears that he is now putting it all together again at his new home in Oxford.
I see this being a tight game, but I am giving the coaching edge to Beard here. Keatts looks to not have full control over this roster right now after what I saw in Vegas. I also believe a true 3 points of homecourt should be included in a handicap for this game. It should be rowdy. I would still play this at the current number of -2. I would not exceed -2.5.
Score Prediction: Ole Miss 74 – NC State 69
Best of luck! Let’s snipe!!
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