(photo: Marco Garcia/AP Photo)
12/4 Card:
Purdue -12.5 (7:00pm ET – BTN)
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Purdue -12.5 : The seems to be a sexy Iowa spot. Virtually all of the buzz that I have seen on Twitter/X surrounding this game is loving on the Hawkeyes catching 12.5 in this spot. I simply do not see it. Iowa will have no answer for an offense centered around Zach Edey today.
We are used to the Hawkeyes being a putrid defensive team under Fran McCaffery. This group may prove to be worse than other recent versions. The Hawkeyes are currently sitting at 214th in the country in adjusted Shot Quality defensive rating. The even bigger issue? The majority of the metrics that are bringing this rating down are key areas that you cannot be poor in when trying to defend Zach Edey. Iowa is 312th (!!!) in the country in SQ PPP allowed in post-up scenarios. Heaven help them.
The Hawkeyes also come in at 194th in SQ PPP allowed on shots attacking the rim and 304th in catch and shoot threes. If Iowa throws the house at Edey to try to slow him down in the post, then it is going to be a field day for him finding cutters and open three point shooters. Edey is an underrated passer. There is simply no defensive plan of attack for the Hawkeyes that will have any success. The regression analysis of Iowa also shows they may be due for a slight dip in their potent offensive numbers to start the year.
Purdue’s defense has impressed me this season. I truly see Friday’s loss at Northwestern to be an anomaly on that end of the court. It was a situational nightmare and the spread told us everything we needed to know. We thankfully cashed our Northwestern ticket in OT in that one. Even with allowing 92 points in an OT loss to the Wildcats, Purdue still comes into tonight ranked 30th in Shot Quality’s adjusted defensive rating. They have had some dominant performances on that end of the court this season including holding Gonzaga to 63 and Tennessee to 67 points in Maui.
The public is licking their chops to grab the 12.5 points with a sexy offensive team in Iowa. Especially with Purdue coming off of a loss. Zigging when the public zags usually proves fruitful. The answer is in the defensive metrics. This is a Best Bet. Boiler Up!
Score Prediction: Purdue 87 – Iowa 70
Best of luck! Let’s snipe!!
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