(photo: Getty Images)
12/5 Card:
Illinois +2.5 (6:30pm ET – ESPN)
Michigan State -5 (7pm – Peacock)
Northern Illinois +7.5 (8pm – ESPN+)
UNC/UConn u152.5 (9:00pm – ESPN)
Fresno State -8.5 (10:00pm – MWN)
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Illinois +2.5 : Florida Atlantic has been one of the most impressive teams in the country over the last few weeks. They have really silenced some of the “smart guy” preseason critics claiming that they were undeserving of their preseason rating. There will be many people lining up at the window to back them on this short spread at the Jimmy V Classic tonight. That will not be us. I am a fan of the Owls long term, but Illinois is a very dangerous opponent for them tonight.
Brad Underwood has the Illini playing phenomenal defense this season. Illinois is currently 32nd in the Shot Quality adjusted defensive rating. This includes being the #2 (!!!) halfcourt defense in the country in SQ PPP allowed. That is an important metric for tonight. FAU ranks 268th in the country in SQ offensive transition rating. The Owls do a large majority of their damage in the halfcourt. The Illini have a great opportunity to take advantage of that tonight. You also have to rebound well to compete against FAU. That is a strength of Illinois. They are 13th in the country in defensive rebounding and 34th in the country in offensive rebounding percentage.
Illinois is getting healthier. Coleman Hawkins has missed a lot of time this year with a knee problem. They got him back into the fold last time out and walked into Piscataway and blew out Rutgers. That just simply doesn’t happen often at the RAC.
The Illini are starting to find their groove and they have the perfect defensive scheme to knock off FAU tonight. I like Illinois in a close one.
Score Prediction: Illinois 74 – FAU 72
Michigan State -5 : Wisconsin is coming off of a monster win over the weekend against Marquette. The Badgers have been on a roll lately with easy wins over SMU and UVA as well. This run has catapulted Wisconsin back into the Top 25. Yet, they are 5 point dogs tonight on the road at a 4-3 Michigan State. This spot is screaming Sparty. I have to answer the call.
Wisconsin’s recent successes have a common theme. No road environments. The only road test that Wisconsin has faced this season resulted in a 13 point loss at Providence. That is important to note when we talk about a team returning as many minutes as the Badgers do. A season ago this group was 5-7 ATS in true road games. Their success simply does not travel. This group also struggled heavily ATS in conference play a year ago. The Badgers were only 7-13-1 against the number in Big 10 play. This is the Big 10 opener for a Michigan State. The Breslin Center is going to be a hornets nest tonight as the Spartans are looking for their first marquee win of the season.
Wisconsin is also due for offensive regression. They are playing well above their means on that end of the court.
I believe that will rear its ugly head tonight in a hostile environment. I do not trust their frontcourt to be able to cope with the athletic defenders that Izzo can throw at them. Michigan State wins this one comfortably. This is my Best Bet.
Score Prediction: Michigan State 72 – Wisconsin 61
Northern Illinois +7.5 : Indiana State has been one of the darlings of the 23/24 season. How can you not love this team? Their unselfish style of play and high scoring ability have captured the attention of those deep in the weeds of college basketball. Can the Sycamores keep it up to this level? I am not so sure.
The Shot Quality regression analysis shows that offensive level of play may be dropping sooner rather than later:
The Sycamores are experiencing a high variance of shot luck at the three point line and around the rim. Indiana State is shooting 41% from distance. SQ projects them to be at 33%. They are also finishing at 66% around the rim, but SQ projects them to be at 59%.
I have said it before, and I will say it again. This Northern Illinois offense is the real deal. They have climbed all the way to the #37 offense in the country per the SQ adjusted offensive rating. They are scoring 1.11 PPP on offense and the best part is that SQ agrees with their actual rating. Their SQ PPP is also 1.11.
I believe that Northern Illinois can score with Indiana State throughout the entirety of this one. With both offenses sitting at a SQ PPP of 1.11, I will gladly take the 7.5 points at home. This bet is also SQ Model approved. Below is a preview of the Value Finder tool. Use promo code “TPS” for 10% off of your first month of a subscription!
Score Prediction: Indiana State 84 – Northern Illinois 80
UNC/UConn u152.5 : We have been great at selecting under situations in marquee games like this one tonight in MSG. It is time to go back to the well.
Don’t look now .. but .. Hubert Davis is actually coaching his ass off on the defensive end this year. North Carolina is coming into this contest tonight rated as the 10th best team in the country in the Shot Quality defensive efficiency rating. Yes, you read that right. Now, you might be thinking .. Sniper show me how lucky they have been on that end of the court. Here you go:
No luck whatsoever. UNC has been one of the most true to actual form teams in the country to this point. Harrison Ingram and Jae’Lyn Withers were much needed additions to this team on that end of the court. Seth Trimble is also progressing into one of the best on-ball defenders in the country in his sophomore season. UConn has picked up right where they left off a season ago as well. They are only allowing an impressive 0.91 PPP to their opponents. Good shots will be hard to come by in this game.
It is scary to take an under in games featuring Carolina and UConn because you know that second chance points are on the table every time down the court. However, both teams will struggle to reap those rewards today. UConn is 3rd in defensive rebounding and UNC is 12th. Hurley and Davis will make it a point of emphasis to keep one another off of the offensive glass.
This was close to a Best Bet, but I do feel like this will be an up-tempo affair. I like to have tempo in my favor for a total Best Bet. The defenses and lack of offensive rebounding chances should be enough to get us under the total here.
Score Prediction: UConn 76 – UNC 71
Fresno State -8.5 : Fresno State comes into tonight’s game with a 2-4 record. That certainly does not represent the quality of this team. The four losses have come to Kent State, JMU, UCSB and BYU. There is a chance that all four of those opponents could be tournament teams in March. The Bulldogs will be able to let out some aggression on Idaho State today.
Fresno State’s backcourt is shooting the lights out from distance to start the year. Isaiah Hill, Donavan Yap Jr. and Xavier DuSell have all made double digit threes on the season. This trio is also all at least shooting 36% from deep. Idaho State is due for giving up a big night from distance. Opponents are only shooting 27% on 3pters against them. SQ expects that number to be closer to 32%. Fresno State is the perfect team to smack them with the law of averages.
Too much offense from Fresno State tonight. They win by double digits.
Score Prediction: Fresno State 72 – Idaho State 60
Best of luck! Let’s snipe!!
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