(photo: Howard University Athletics)
12/11 Card:
Robert Morris +4.5 (7pm ET – ESPN+)
Howard +6 (7pm – ESPN+)
Utah Tech +2.5 (10pm – ESPN+)
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Robert Morris +4.5 : The Colonials are primed to give Delaware an upset scare tonight. The Blue Hens are coming into this game following a monster win at the Cintas Center over Xavier on December 5th. I think that long of a layoff could lead to some “rat poison” creeping in to the locker room. This is a perfect spot for a 2-7 Robert Morris to catch them by surprise.
The Colonials are not as bad as their record looks. There is no shame is true non-con road losses to Wisconsin, Xavier, Towson and Northern Kentucky. Robert Morris was actually trading blows with Xavier at Cintas for a while as well. The Colonials have FIVE players averaging double figures this season. You would not suspect that from a 2-7 team. The Shot Quality regression analysis is showing that they are due for a boost on the offensive and defensive side of the court as well:
Delaware has an impressive resume to this point but they definitively have some cracks in the armor. The Blue Hens rank 303rd in the country in free throw percentage at 65.8%. We all know that missing free throws on the road is a recipe for disaster. Their defense is also putrid in the halfcourt. The Blue Hens rank 216th in the country in Shot Quality PPP allowed in the halfcourt. The regression monster shows they may start letting in a few more points sooner than later:
When you see a 6-3 team laying only 4.5 points on the road against a 2-7 team it should instantly get your attention. This is a perfect let down spot for Delaware and Robert Morris looks to be in the good graces of the regression monster. Keep your eye on Markeese Hastings for RMU. He is averaging 14.0 ppg & 8.4 rpg while shooting 50.5% FG and 38.9 3pt%. He will be able to go toe-to-toe with Jyare Davis and give the Colonials a real shot to win this one outright. Give me the +4.5.
Score Prediction: Delaware 70 – Robert Morris 69
Howard +6 : Seth Towns sznnnnnn! One of the oldest men in college hoops is doing the damn thing this season. Towns has taken full advantage of this extra year of eligibility and is making a huge impact for this Bison team.
Towns damn near was able to carry Howard to an upset over Cincinnati last time out. I watched a good portion of this game and the Bison really impressed me. Especially on the offensive end of the court. Jelani Williams (former Quaker) is bringing much needed play creation to this team over the past few weeks. He has recorded 5 assists in each of their last three games. The Shot Quality regression model agrees with me. The Bison are scoring 1.03 PPP and SQ has them at 1.06. Also, Howard has a great analytical profile to back as an underdog:
Penn has the ability to play down to their competition and leave themselves vulnerable to an upset. The Quakers have already been upset by LaSalle and Maryland Eastern-Shore on the young season. This is due to being poor in vital areas needed for consistency:
I believe that Howard has the edge tonight in this clash of profiles. I respect The Palestra, but Howard has a big time chance to win this game. This is my Best Bet.
Score Prediction: Howard 74 – Penn 73
Utah Tech +2.5 : How can you not love Jon Judkins and the Trailblazers? This feel good story of a D2 team moving up to the big leagues just continues to produce enjoyment for us all.
The Trailblazers are more than just a feel good story. This is a quality basketball team. The 2-0 start in the WAC is not a fluke. Tanner Christensen is a major reason for the good start to the year. The 6’10 junior is averaging 12.8 ppg and 7.3 rpg while shooting 59% from the field. Beon Riley (Hawaii transfer) has been a massive addition to this team to stretch the court for Christensen. Riley is 9/14 from three on the season and is shooting 85% from the stripe. Also, Aric Demings is starting to find his footing as a freshman. He scored a season high 16 points last time out in their win over Idaho.
I believe that the Trailblazer backcourt has a great chance to win this game from the perimeter. CSUN is one of the worst three point shooting teams in the country. The Matadors only have 44 makes on the season in 9 games. That slots them in at 345th in the country in made three pointers per game. 18 of these threes have come from Dionte Bostick. Foul trouble or an off-night from Bostick could spell a lot of trouble for the spacing of this offense. Expect many double teams from the Trailblazers on De’Sean Allen-Elkens.
The SQ model has a slight edge to Utah Tech on the number in this one as well. Below is a preview of the Value Finder tool. Use promo code “TPS” for 10% off of a first month’s subscription at shotqualitybets.com. I would like Utah Tech by a few points on a neutral and I am not giving CSUN any home court edge at all tonight. I will gladly take the 2.5.
Score Prediction: Utah Tech 72 – CSUN 70
Best of luck! Let’s snipe!!
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