(photo: Bradley University Athletics)
12/18 Card:
Bradley +4 (7pm ET – No stream?)
UT Martin +7 (8pm – ESPN+)
EWU/Cal Poly u146 (10pm – ESPN+)
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Bradley +4 : The Braves truly have one of the more insane resumes this season. They started the season 6-0 with wins over UAB, Utah State, Tulane and Vermont. Bradley has since lost their last four games and sit at 6-4. The Braves snap their losing skid today.
This is a fantastic matchup for Malevy Leons and Darius Hannah. Duquesne will not be able to cope with their efficiency in the post. The Shot Quality regression analysis is pointing to big nights ahead for the Dukes’ opponents around the rim:
Duquesne is also 202nd in the country in Shot Quality PPP allowed in post-up play types. This will be an area of emphasis for Brian Wardle.
A lot of people are concerned about the absence of Connor Hickman tonight. This is just not a matchup where I believe that his absence should cause the Braves to be 4 point dogs. Bradley will try to win this in the paint. The Braves also have been learning to cope without him over the last few games and Christian Davis is really turning it on. He scored 16 points last time out. I still have this game is Bradley -1 on a neutral in Hickman’s absence. Give me the points. This bet is also Shot Quality model approved. Below is a preview of their Value Finder tool:
Score Prediction: Bradley 70 – Duquesne 69
UT Martin +7 : This is one of the biggest edges on a side in the Shot Quality model today. It shows 6.9 points of perceived value in UT Martin’s favor. I am in full agreeance.
The Skyhawks are going to have a massive advantage from distance tonight. UT Martin comes into tonight’s game with 109 makes from three in only 11 games. Evansville is playing with fire analytically in that department. They are allowing their opponents to get off a ton of looks from three and are not taking any.
Evansville is lucky to be sitting at 8-2 with that profile. It will catch up with them shortly. Shot Quality graded out their UNI and Bellarmine wins as losses. UT Martin will try to force them out of their normal rhythm tonight. The Skyhawks rank 3rd in few shots allowed attacking the rim per Shot Quality analytics.
UT Martin will do enough to keep this within the number. Give me the points
Score Prediction: Evansville 80 – UT Martin 76
EWU/Cal Poly u146 : I love this total. I don’t think that it sniffs 140 tonight.
Cal Poly is building an ideal Shot Quality profile for going under totals. Look at how disgusting this is:
This profile and many other bad traits have the Mustangs ranked 348th in the SQ adjusted offensive rating. Eastern Washington is also struggling out of the gate on the offensive end due to the turnover in the roster from a season ago. The Eagles rank only 173rd in SQ adjusted offensive rating.
The pace will also be our friend tonight. Cal Poly is 325th in tempo and EWU is 88th. The pace will be slow enough to keep this game in the 130’s. This bet is Shot Quality approved with a projected score of 73.7 to 64.8. This is my Best Bet.
Score Prediction: Eastern Washington 73 – Cal Poly 65
Best of luck! Let’s snipe!!
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