(photo: Denise Archetto / UNCG)
12/29 Card:
Miami -19.5 (6pm ET – ACCN)
Radford +15 (7pm – ACCNX)
Northern Illinois +18 (7pm -BTN+)
UNCG TT over 63.5 (8pm – LHN)
————————————
Miami -19.5 : The Ospreys are in for a tough one tonight. North Florida comes into tonight’s game ranked 276th in adjusted offensive efficiency rating per Shot Quality analytics. Their defense is 279th. The defense will likely be their biggest issue tonight. Miami has one of the best offenses in the country. Here is a brief profile of the Hurricane offense per SQ metrics:
The Ospreys have been susceptible to letting up big, big numbers from power conference opponents this season. UNF allowed 103 points to Iowa and 91 points to Florida State earlier in the year. They have also gotten scorched by a few low-major opponents as well. Miami will get whatever they want tonight and this will be a blowout from jump street. This is one of the bigger SQ Model edges of the night. Below is a preview of the Value Finder tool on Shot Quality Bets. Use promo code “TPS” for a discount on your first month when you sign up!
Score Prediction: Miami 92 – North Florida 67
Radford +15 : This will be a theme for the remaining three plays. This could be purely anecdotal from my dumb brain (I have always admitted to being an idiot), but I feel like these types of games are tough spots following a Christmas break. Power conference teams hosting mid-majors (who can pack a punch* – sorry UNF) in a game where they are trying to get back into the rhythm of game action. A lot of students are still home for break and the student sections might not be as rowdy as normal. That is a perfect storm to allow a scrappy opponent hang around in a game long enough to cover a large number.
This Radford backcourt is the real deal. Villanova transfer, Bryan Antoine, is continuing to flourish in his time at Radford. He is shooting 41.5% from distance and 91.2% from the stripe this season. Elite stuff. Kenyon Giles and DaQuan Smith are also carrying a heavy workload in the scoring department for this team. This backcourt forces most of their damage from behind the arc. The trio has made 76 threes so far in the early season. Radford is shooting 38% from behind the arc as a team and they are rated 12th in the country in the Catch & Shoot 3PT play-type per Shot Quality metrics. This will be a problem for the Clemson defense as they rank 216th in the country in defending that play-type.
Clemson continues to be one of the biggest “frauds” in the country per Shot Quality analytics. The Tigers sit at 10-1, but their Shot Quality record is 6-5. This is mostly due to the extreme luck that they are having on defending shots around the rim. They are also due to have more shots drop from three. That is a dangerous profile to have with Radford rolling in. Here is their defensive regression analysis:
This is a quality Clemson team. Don’t get me wrong. However, they are not as elite as their record states. They should also not be laying this heavy of a number against a quality Radford team who is coming off of an upset win of West Virginia in Morgantown. Radford’s backcourt will do enough to keep us within the number in this one.
Score Prediction: Clemson 77 – Radford 66
Northern Illinois +18 : Back to the well with our Huskies! NIU has been a profitable team for us this season. Their offense is the gift that keeps on giving. We will back them again tonight against an Iowa defense that I do not trust.
Northern Illinois is rated 87th in the country in the adjusted offensive efficiency rating per Shot Quality. Not too shabby for a 6-5 team out of the MAC. Their impressive start on that end of the court is not a fluke. They are scoring 1.07 PP, but Shot Quality actually expects them to be at 1.09 PPP. That is phenomenal output from a team of this caliber. There is a chance that they get even better. Their leading scorer from the previous two seasons, Keshawn Williams, made his season debut on 12/5. Williams is just now coming back after an ACL tear last season. He did not feature in the next two games, but there is optimism that he can play 15-20 minutes again tonight. That is not factored into my handicap for tonight’s game because of how truly up in the air his status is, but mannnn that would be a bonus.
There is no way to quantify an “effort” metric, but this Iowa team continuously gives zero effort on the defensive end of the court in every game that I have watched them this season. Their close outs are slow, they get stuck on ball screens, they get back cut, etc, etc, etc. The Hawkeyes are 265th in the country in allowing opponent assists per game. Just pathetic for a program of this stature. There is no way that the Iowa defense will be locked in enough to slow down NIU in a sleepy spot following Christmas break. Especially not enough to cover this large of a number. I feel comfortable in taking the points with the Huskies tonight. I lean the over as well, but the number is too large for me to get any exposure.
Score Prediction: Iowa 92 – NIU 78
UNC Greensboro TT over 63.5 : I love, love, love this play. I like the over in this game as well, but I show a very large edge specifically on the UNCG team total.
The Spartans enter tonight’s game 11th in the country in three pointers made per game. This will be the crucial metric for tonight’s handicap. Texas ranks 322nd (!!!) in the country in Open 3 rate on defense.
I believe that we have a very strong chance to make double digit three pointers tonight. That will go a long way towards scoring 64 points. Texas’ defense is due for regression across the board. Here is their Shot Quality regression analysis:
The Spartans have sputtered a bit in December without Mikeal Brown-Jones. That is not surprising. Mikeal is having one of the best seasons in college basketball to this point in the season:
There are some rumors that he may be returning tonight, but there is nothing solid from a reporting perspective to make me believe that he will give it a go at this point. We have yet to be given a true update on just what exactly he is dealing with. If he is deemed active, the TT and spread will steam towards UNCG. Go ahead and lock this in now because I love this play with or without Mikeal. He will not factor into the three point edge that we have tonight. He has only made 6 on the season. I also believe that it was good for UNCG to let out some frustrations on poor Virginia-Lynchburg in their last outing. They scored a school record 135 points in that game. Hopefully that was able to get the taste of the High Point and Marshall games out of their mouth.
UNCG is 10-2 in clearing 63.5 points this season. They won a game while only scoring 58 points in one of those where they didn’t eclipse 63.5, and then scored 63 points in the other. The Spartans scored 72 on Arkansas and 70 on Vanderbilt in their previous “step-ups” this season. I think they have a real chance to push 70 tonight with the success that they will find from distance. This is also qualifies as one of the sleepy spots as we have talked about in this article. Will Texas really be checked in enough to try to fix their problems in the Open 3 rate department? I doubt it. Shot Quality is in agreeance with me on this one. They have UNCG projected at 67.3 points tonight. This is my Best Bet.
Score Prediction: UNCG 69 points
Best of luck! Let’s snipe!!
threepointsniper.com 