(photo: Eddie Moore / Journal)
1/2 Card:
Pitt +4.5 (7pm ET – ESPN)
Duke -14 (9pm – ESPN)
New Mexico +4 (10:30pm – FS1)
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Pitt +4.5 : The Tar Heels are on upset alert tonight. Pitt comes into tonight’s matchup 0-2 in the ACC and hungry for their first conference win of the season. It will be rocking in the Peterson Events Center tonight. The Zoo has come alive after the Panthers found a little bit of magic in the big dance last season. This is one of the better student sections in the country when they are at their best. I am fully factoring in this home court advantage into my handicap.
You need to be solid on the boards for a chance at upsetting UNC. Pitt checks that box. The Panthers rank 6th in defensive rebounding and 47th in offensive rebounding this season. They should be able to neutralize Bacot’s ferocious rebounding capabilities with their depth and length in the frontcourt.
If you have been following me this season, you know that I have been high on this Panther team since the start of the season. Shot Quality metrics are showing that I was not wrong in my assumptions. Pitt ranks 28th in the SQ adjusted offensive rating and 33rd in the defensive rating. There are very few teams that have both units rated this highly. Pitt’s SQ PPP on offense is 1.17 and their defense is 0.99. In comparison, UNC is 1.19 on offense and 1.02 on defense. Not much of a disparity there in the PPP categories. That gives me even more reason to believe Pitt has a real chance at an upset here.
Jeff Capel has owned UNC in his tenure at Pitt. The Panthers head coach is 5-2 against Carolina. I will gladly take the 4.5 points tonight. I am predicting an upset.
Score Prediction: Pitt 79 – UNC 78
Duke -14 : The Blue Devils have absolutely owned the Orange as of late. Syracuse has not beaten Duke since 2019. They have lost 4 games to Duke in the last two seasons by an average of 19 points per game. There is another bloodbath coming tonight.
Duke is going to eviscerate Syracuse in the halfcourt tonight. The Blue Devils rank 50th in the country in Shot Quality PPP in the halfcourt. The Orange rank 297th in the country in SQ PPP allowed in the halfcourt. Also, Syracuse is due for defensive regression across the board. Here is their Shot Quality regression analysis:
Duke is one of the best defensive teams in the country to this point. They rank 15th in the SQ adjusted defensive rating. Syracuse can fall into a predictable offense at times. Judah Mintz ISO is their backup plan when the ball is not moving freely early in the clock. Duke is primed to take full advantage of that with Tyrese Proctor back in the fold. His length and athleticism makes him one of the best on-ball defenders in the country. Proctor also looked solid on the offensive end in his return against Queens. It was promising to see him attack the rim without any hesitation.
Duke’s massive advantage on both ends in the halfcourt leads this to being a huge edge for me. The Blue Devils likely bust this one open in the 1H and never look back. A 1H play might have some value as well.
Score Prediction: Duke 83 – Syracuse 65
New Mexico +4 : I have been waiting for this spot for a few weeks now. I love, love, love the Lobos today.
Let’s have a chat about Donovan Dent.
The 6’2 sophomore has having one hell of a breakout year. Dent is averaging 16.8 PTS / 6.2 AST / 3 REB / 1.8 STL on the season. The Lobo offense is virtually unstoppable at the mid-major level with Dent playing this way. New Mexico has five players averaging double figures per game. I predict that number will soon jump to six with the emergence of Nelly Junior Joseph. He averaged double figures in all three years at Iona under Rick Pitino and is finally finding his footing under Richard. Colorado State already had fits trying to stop the two-man show of Jaelen House and Jamaal Mashburn Jr. a year ago. The Lobos averaged 86 points per game in the two meetings between these programs. With New Mexico improving on that offense from a year ago, I smell trouble for the Rams defensively.
The Colorado State offense has been humming as well in this early season. Can they continue at this elite level? I am not so sure. The Shot Quality regression analysis shows a pretty sharp drop-off is likely:
Jamaal Mashburn Jr. is healthy and back for today’s matchup. That was always going to be crucial for this handicap that I have had my eyes on for a few weeks. With Mashburn, Dent and Washington being confirmed “go’s” for this matchup, I am adamantly predicting a New Mexico victory. This is my Best Bet.
Score Prediction: New Mexico 79 – Colorado State 75
Best of luck! Let’s snipe!!
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