(photo: Purdue Athletics)
1/5 Card:
Butler +6.5 (6:30pm ET – FS1)
Purdue/Illinois u155 & Purdue -10 (8:30pm – FS1)
Bonus: Player Prop Thoughts
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Butler +6.5 : I have been wrong on my fair share of preseason predictions to this point (looking at you Gaels and Gauchos), but Butler is one of the teams that I nailed to experience a major improvement in the 23/24 season. The Bulldogs are squarely on Joe Lunardi’s bubble as we begin 2024. Tonight is a fantastic opportunity to improve on their resume. This is going to be a dog fight. Pun intended.
Believe it or not, Butler actually ranks higher in the Shot Quality adjusted defensive rating than the Huskies. Their defense will be the key to keeping this close tonight. The Bulldogs have two fantastic characteristics as a defensive unit:
- They don’t put their opponents on the free throw line (25th in opponent FTR)
- They don’t allow open threes (9th in defensive open 3 rate)
I also like the Butler frontcourt to be able to stifle the Huskies a bit in the post. Jalen Thomas and Andre Screen provide some of the better rim protection that you will find in the Big East. Screen has 6 blocks in his last 5 games since the injury to Connor Turnbull. He averaged 1.3 blocks per game a year ago at Bucknell and is starting to return to that form. His rim protection will be needed against the Huskies.
Hinkle Fieldhouse is beginning to turn into a fortress again. Butler is undefeated at home this season. Conversely, UConn is 0-2 in true road games this year. 6.5 was too many points. The market seemed to agree. This has been steamed down to 4.5 in most places. I think UConn sneaks away with a tight win here, but would not be shocked at all to see Butler pull off the upset. Give me the points.
Score Prediction: UConn 73 – Butler 71
Purdue -10 & under 155 : This is one of my favorite double-up spots of the season. I show a huge edge to the Boilermakers and the under. Let’s get into why.
Illinois is going to be in massive trouble in the paint in this game. The Illini rank 240th in the country in defending post-up scenarios per Shot Quality. Sniper, hit the meme.
Purdue ranks 9th in the country in the post-up play-type thanks to the very tall man above. The Illini also rank 239th in defending the pick & roll ball-screen and the Boilermakers are 25th in the country in attacking that play-type. I believe this will also bring a slower pace to this game. Purdue ranks 107th in the country in possessions per game, and I expect them to dictate the pace and play even slower to ensure that they attack Illinois in these areas.
The Illini will be without Terrence Shannon Jr. indefinitely. For purely basketball reasons, this is a massive loss for Brad Underwood and Illinois. Shannon dictated a lot of pace for this offense and was one of the best transition players in the country. I expect the Illinois pace to dip dramatically as time goes on without him in the fold. The offense is now going to be ran through Marcus Domask in key situations from all indications. He is a patient player who does not like to “force the issue”. That will inherently bring a slower pace. I also see a Domask centered offense being a major issue tonight. Marcus will see a lot of Mason Gillis and Caleb Furst in this game. I expect Matt Painter to utilize those guys to put the clamps down on Domask and force someone else from Illinois to beat them. This is a major factor in my handicap.
The pace will be in our favor in a big way tonight in my opinion. I do not see a world where Illinois breaks 70 in this game. I would be stunned. The market has agreed. This total has been steamed all the way down to 151. I would probably still play it there if you haven’t yet. I also expect Purdue to take full advantage of all of their mismatches and blow out Illinois in this perfect “Top 10” Friday night home spot at Mackey. This is the first one of this season. I am so excited. A DOUBLE BEST BET.
Score Prediction: Purdue 82 – Illinois 65
Bonus Player Prop Parlay (+750) Thoughts:
Tristen Newton under 6.5 AST: I believe in the Butler defense tonight. They are only allowing 12.5 assists per game on the year, and I do not see 7 coming from one player. Even one as great as Newton.
Pierre Brooks II over 1.5 3PT: Pierre is quickly turning into a big-game shooter. He has cleared this number against Michigan State, FAU, Providence, TTU, St. John’s, etc. He is averaging 6.2 three point attempts on the season and is shooting at 37.9% clip. I fully expect him to make two threes tonight.
Mason Gillis over 5.5 PTS: I love this play. Gillis has turned into one of the most efficient players in the country this season. He is shooting 55.6% FG / 51.9% 3PT / 86.7% FT. He is averaging 19 minutes per game over the last 4, and I expect him to clear 20 tonight in what I expect to be a blowout. He has covered this number in 2 out of 3 games in the last two seasons against Illinois.
Marcus Domask under 14.5 PTS: More minutes with Gillis on the court would also mean trouble for Domask. I expect Painter to use a one-two punch of Gillis and Furst on Domask tonight. These are two great defenders that will cause a ton of problems for Marcus. Domask has two 30+ point games within a 30-day span. However, he only averaged 10.5 ppg in the 4 games sandwiched in-between those performances. In a game where points are going to be hard to come by for Illinois in my opinion, I am glad to take a stab at this under.
Best of luck! Let’s snipe!!
threepointsniper.com 