(photo: Erick Doxey Photography)
1/18 Card:
Gonzaga -11.5 & over 155.5 (10:00pm ET – ESPN+)
Long Beach State -1.5 (10:00pm – ESPN+)
Washington State/Stanford under 146.5 (11:00pm ET – Pac12)
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Gonzaga -11.5 & over 155.5 : I love this combo tonight. We have the pace and matchup edges that we need to walk out of Malibu 2-0.
These two faced off two weeks ago at the Kennel. The Zags steamrolled Pepperdine by a score of 86-60. The total in that game closed at 156.5. Pepperdine’s 32.8% shooting from the field + a slower pace near the end of the game in a 30 point blowout were the reasons for this. I believe that Pepperdine has a chance to improve on their scoring tonight. The Waves are 29th in pace and that should be ramped up behind a hype home crowd. A Ryan Nembhard led Gonzaga offense will welcome this pace. I also expect Pepperdine to hit double digit threes tonight in their home gym. The Zags rank 277th in Open 3 rate on defense and Pepperdine is 22nd in efficiency from 3.
Gonzaga is a terrible matchup for Pepperdine defensively. I expect another blowout tonight. Pepperdine is 350th in frequency of shots allowed at the rim and 318th in regards to PPP defending them. The Zags are 22nd in PPP on attacking the rim. That is their bread and butter this year without any real deep threats. Gonzaga was 24/38 inside the three point arc against Pepperdine in the previous affair. Also, Anton Watson is playing the best basketball of his career. He was the lone bright spot in Gonzaga’s loss to Santa Clara last time out. This is a great matchup for him to continue this great run.
Gonzaga is coming off of a loss with something to prove. I trust them to take advantage of the paint and cover the number tonight. It was set too low. They closed at -20.5 at the Kennel. My Best Bet lies with the over. I believe the Pepperdine pace and three point shooting easily gets us over the total tonight. Let’s get a combo 2-0 winner here.
Score Prediction: Gonzaga 89 – Pepperdine 74
Long Beach State -1.5 : This is the first stop in a Rainbow Warriors’ road trip to Cali. They stumbled in their most recent road trip at Cal Northridge. I suspect another loss is coming tonight.
Hawaii has a very solid defense, but I fear for their frontcourt tonight. The Rainbow Warriors rank 326th in volume of shots allowed attacking the rim per Shot Quality analytics. That is music to Long Beach’s ears. Shot Quality analytics show that the Beach are ranked 32nd in efficiency attacking the rim. Long Beach is also 53rd in the country in drawing opponent personal fouls per possession. There is no depth behind da Silva and McKoy if they were to get in foul trouble. This is a strong edge for LBSU.
Hawaii has struggled on the road in conference play over the years and I am happy to jump in tonight and take the Beach in this spot. The frontcourt will be the difference. We locked in -1.5 last night. I see -3.5’s out there right now. I personally would not play over -3.
Score Prediction: Long Beach State 73 – Hawaii 68
Wazzou/Stanford under 146.5: We were able to snipe the best number on this total today. It had been bet up to 146.5 this AM after opening at 144.5. We locked in at the perfect time. This now sits at 145 at most places from what I am seeing.
Washington State is going to sit on the ball in this game. The Cougars rank 256th in pace this season and do not want Stanford running. A halfcourt game would be phenomenal for our under not only for pace reasons, but these are two of the best teams in the country in defending the halfcourt. Wazzou ranks 16th in SQ PPP allowed in the halfcourt and Stanford comes in at 24th. These two teams are also great at defending the rim. The Cardinal rank 10th in defending shots attacking the rim and Washington State ranks 34th.
All of these reasons lead me to believe we have a perfect recipe for an under tonight at Maples Pavilion. The Shot Quality model agrees with a 143.7 predicted score. Let’s go defense.
Score Prediction: Stanford 71 – Washington State 69
Best of luck! Let’s snipe!!
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