(photo: Ryan M. Kelly/Getty Images)
1/24 Card:
UVA -4 (7:00pm ET – ACCN)
Iowa -5 (7:00pm – BTN)
Alabama -2.5 (7:30pm – ESPN)
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UVA -4: Tony Bennett may just have the Hoos rounding into form. The key to the recent success? Jordan Minor.
I highly recommend checking out the article above written by Dan Siegel. He illustrates what Minor has brought to the pack line defense of late. His physical presence has also elevated Ryan Dunn on the help side as well in my opinion. Minor has also scored in double figures in the last two. Tony Bennett is being rewarded heavily for the uptick in minutes that he is giving to Minor. Difference maker.
UVA’s 5 losses this season have been absolute stinkers. There is no doubt about it. However, all of these stinkers have come on the road and one neutral site. The Hoos are an impressive 8-2 ATS at home this season and are undefeated straight up. This is even without Jordan Minor having a role in the rotation outside of the most recent home win against the Hokies. John Paul Jones Arena will be the defended tonight.
This number has taken off overnight & this morning. Thankfully we locked in at -4. We should have phenomenal CLV by the time this game tips off. This is my Best Bet. Below is a preview of the SQ Value Finder Tool for this matchup:
Score Prediction: Virginia 70 – NC State 60
Iowa -5 : We suffered a bad beat on the Terps over the weekend. We had a +1.5 ticket in College Park vs Michigan State and lost by a score of 61-59. Jahmir Young’s toe on the line on the final make of the game was the difference in us covering and losing. However, Maryland was quite lucky to be in position to win that game. There are some worrisome characteristics in this team that Iowa can take advantage of.
Jahmir Young was a complete disaster at the end of the first and 2nd half in taking care of the basketball. You cannot give the ball away freely, especially in crunch time. He had 7 turnovers on the day and that was a major factor in Maryland losing the game. They lost the turnover battle to Sparty 18-8. Iowa comes into tonight 5th in the country in turnover rate on offense. Maryland ranks 211th in that stat. I expect another beating in the turnover department for the Terps tonight.
Iowa also has a sizeable advantage from behind the arc tonight. The Hawkeyes are 14th and 27th in Off of the Dribble and Catch & Shoot 3PT play-types on offense. They do a lot of this damage in Carver-Hawkeye Arena. They always have under Fran. Maryland flat out cannot shoot. The Terps are 291st in the country in made three pointers per game. This is a major edge in my handicap tonight.
Iowa gets it done tonight behind a BIG 10 home court advantage in Iowa City. Lay the points.
Score Prediction: Iowa 79 – Maryland 70
Alabama -2.5: I am so excited for this game tonight. This will be one of the most electric atmospheres of the 23/24 season. The Tide will roll behind the hostile home court advantage at Coleman.
Alabama comes into tonight’s game 7-2 ATS at home. That is the best home ATS record in the SEC. The Tide are coming off of two wins against South Carolina and Mizzou in which they won by a combined 45 points. This home court advantage is real. It will be turned up even more by the animosity that a game against Auburn brings.
Alabama’s offense is the real deal. They are currently rated the #2 overall offense in the country per the Shot Quality adjusted offensive rating. The Tide also rank Top 10 in PPP for EVERY play-type that SQ monitors:
Auburn is due for major regression on defense (0.94 -> 1.02 in PPP) and I suspect that we will see a lot of that correct itself tonight in Tuscaloosa.
The Tigers have only played three road games this season. They are 2-1 with a loss at Appalachian State. The majority of this hot streak they are on has come at Neville Arena. This is a great spot for Alabama to take advantage. Roll Tide Roll.
Score Prediction: Alabama 84 – Auburn 77
Best of luck! Let’s snipe!!
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