(photo: Darren Yamashita, USA Today)
1/26 Card:
Michigan State +3 (8:00pm ET – FS1)
Saint Joe’s 1H +1.5 (8:30pm – ESPN2)
Cal -2.5 (10:00pm – FS1)
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Michigan State +3 : Betting against the Badgers at the Kohl Center is usually not a recipe for success. That is not a secret. Yet, we only see a 3 point spread with a #13 ranked Wisconsin welcoming in an unranked Michigan State. The spread is telling in my opinion. Let’s get into why.
Is Malik Hall back?! I believe Malik Hall is back.
The Spartans are coming off of three consecutive Big 10 wins in which Malik has scored in double figures. He is the X-Factor. The Spartans are 8-3 this season overall when he scores in double figures. The consistency finally seems to be there to expect him to score in double figures every night. Tom Izzo has taken notice. Hall is averaging 32 minutes per game in his last 4 after averaging 24 minutes per game in the 4 games prior. This Spartan team can reach their preseason hype with Hall playing this way.
Wisconsin is 7-1 in the Big 10. A phenomenal start to the season. However, they are surviving a little too dangerously for my liking. Shot Quality has graded them out with losses in 3 out of their last 4 games. With Sparty on the ascension (4 straight SQ wins), I think they can come into the Kohl Center and pull off the upset. Michigan State was a 6 point favorite in East Lansing when these teams met in December. That valuation is more in line with what I believe these teams are. Give me the 3.
Score Prediction: Michigan State 69 – Wisconsin 67
Saint Joe’s 1H +1.5 : I was able to dive deeper into research with the short slate tonight, and uncovered a huge 1H edge in this matchup. Fire and ice in regards to starts to the game in A-10 play for these teams.
Saint Joe’s 1H results in A10 (4-2):
- Joe’s 36 – URI 30 (+6)
- Joe’s 43 – SLU 33 (+10)
- Loyola 39 – Joes 36 (-3)
- Joe’s 42 – La Salle 29 (+13)
- Joe’s 40 – Duquesne 38 (+2)
- UMass 42 – Joe’s 38 (-4)
Bonnies 1H results in A10 (2-4):
- Bonnies 44 – VCU 36 (+8)
- Richmond 28 – Bonnies 23 (-5)
- Fordham 44 – Bonnies 39 (-6)
- Bonnies 51 – URI 25 (+26)
- George Mason 33 – Bonnies 27 (-6)
- Duquesne 22 – Bonnies 15 (-7)
The Hawks are consistently in games in the 1H and are most of the time entering the half with the lead in conference play. Conversely, there have been 4 games for the Bonnies in the A-10 in which they were down 5 or more at the break. Saint Joe’s also had very good starts in their “step-up” games out of conference. They led Villanova by 8 at the break in route to their win over the Wildcats, and were down 3 at Rupp in a game where they took UK to OT. I believe in the guard play of this team and I trust the 1H data that we have uncovered. Give me the 1.5 here.
Score Prediction: 1H Saint Joe’s 35 – St. Bonaventure 33
Cal -2.5: We are trusting Cal to get us home tonight in this future ACC rivalry game (so weird). The Bears are finally healthy and are playing fantastic ball. This is a sleeping Shot Quality giant that may have just woken up..
Cal is 34th (!!!) in the Shot Quality adjusted overall rating. Yes, the Cal Bears. Mark Madsen is a phenomenal coach and he finally has the health to have this team firing on all cylinders. Not many teams can claim a Top 40 offense and defense in the adjusted SQ rating. Shot Quality expects Cal to be at 12-7 this season even with the injuries that they have endured. This is not a team you want to catch right now in conference play.
Also, Jaylon Tyson has turned into an absolute HOOPER in Berkely.
His production is being backed up by Shot Quality analytics. Tyson is currently in the 92nd percentile in the country in shot making. Here is where he ranks elsewhere:
Tyson has the Bears rolling. Cal has won three out of their last five Pac 12 games, including wins over Colorado and Washington State. I am going to trust the data + the hot play and side with them tonight in this rivalry game. This is my Best Bet. Go Bears.
Score Prediction: Cal 82 – Stanford 75
Best of luck! Let’s snipe!!
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