(photo: Kyle Ross-USA TODAY Sports)
2/4 Card:
Purdue -2 (1:00pm ET – CBS)
Villanova -4.5 (6:00pm – FS1)
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Purdue -2 : I promise I do not have it out for the Badgers. I just feel like their pricing in the market is heavily inflated at the moment. This spread should be sitting around -4.5 or -5. We were finally able to take advantage in the midweek with Nebraska’s come back win. I think Purdue walks into the Kohl Center and gets a victory today just as they did a season ago. Wisconsin had no answers for Zach Edey as he went for 17 & 19 on 7/9 shooting from the field. That will be the recipe for success again today for the Boilermakers.
The Badgers are living dangerously as I previously discussed in an article. They now have been graded out with losses in 4 out of their last 6 games by the Shot Quality score. One of their weaknesses is the quality of three point shots they are allowing. They rank 298th in the country in quality of 3’s allowed per Shot Quality. Purdue has the snipers to take advantage of this when they collapse on Edey. I feel comfortable laying the points here. This bet is Shot Quality model approved. Below is the prediction:
Score Prediction: Purdue 74 – Wisconsin 69
Villanova -4.5 : Doing something special today. I have brought in https://twitter.com/ZGtheGrapevine to help us with the write-up today!
ZG: After dropping their 5th straight to Marquette earlier in the week, this is about as “must win” as it gets for Kyle Neptune’s bunch. Villanova’s backs are against the wall here and I see them putting their best foot forward at home. Villanova plays at an incredibly slow pace, averaging 69 possessions per game, ranking 268th in the country. I think we see a good, old fashioned, Big East slobber-knocker with Villanova dictating the flow of the game. My model projects this game’s total at 133.96. Providence has also shown a tendency to be turnover-prone, averaging 13 turnovers per game and are 238th in turnover percentage, according to KenPom. Nova is just flat out better at taking care of the basketball. Both teams are defending at a competent level, but the age-old turnover battle could really be the difference with a small 4.5 point spread. Add in Nova’s elite free throw shooting and it’s a recipe to pull away late. I expect to see the Wildcat’s best effort. Home court advantage and desperation can be one hell of a combination.
Score Prediction: Villanova 71 – Providence 63
Sniper: I completely agree with ZG’s handicap of this game. This is a must-win for Villanova and they are more than capable of doing so. This is not as bad of a team as their record indicates. The Wildcats are still rated 23rd in the Shot Quality adjusted overall rating. They should win the turnover and free throw battle as ZG suggested above, and I also think that the three point line will be a real difference maker in this game. The Friars come into today’s game 311th in efficient three point shooting. Villanova ranks 44th in the country in open three rate allowed on defense, so the three point makes should be hard to come by for Providence. Conversely, Villanova ranks 15th in 3PT attempt rate and is 35th in three point makes per game even at their slow tempo. This could be purely anecdotal but I feel like the Wildcats always shoot better at the Wells Fargo Center. That is where the game is being played today. I love Nova to put a stop to their losing streak today. I will lay the points. This is my Best Bet.
Score Prediction: Villanova 73 – Providence 65
Best of luck! Let’s snipe!!
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