(photo: Matt Cashore-USA TODAY Sports)
2/14 Card:
UMass +4 (7:00pm ET – ESPN+)
Braeden Shrewsberry over 11.5 pts (7:00pm – ACCN)
Wyoming +7 (10:00pm – FS1)
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UMass +4 : This should have been a PK spread in my opinion. Richmond -1 at the most. I believe there is a ton of value in getting the Minutemen at +4 in this matchup. The Spiders are still very inflated in the market due to their 9-1 record in A-10 play. I am not a believer.
Richmond’s defense is fraudulent. I have watched them many times this season and they are consistently getting away with allowing open looks. The Shot Quality analytics agree. SQ expects major defensive regression in the near future:
Richmond’s impressive record is stemming from a 1.08 to .96 differential in PPP scored and allowed. However, Shot Quality has those numbers at 1.07 and 1.06. Comparatively, UMass is scoring 1.15 PPP per Shot Quality while allowing 1.10 on defense. The offensive attack of the Minutemen should be able to take advantage of the defensive regression coming Richmond’s way. I also like the way Josh Cohen matches up with Neal Quinn. A big night is ahead for Cohen in my opinion.
UMass is a better team and I believe they pull off the upset tonight. Hopefully we can get a bonus Frank Martin freakout as a cherry on top. This is my Best Bet.
Score Prediction: UMass 74 – Richmond 72
Braeden Shrewsberry over 11.5 points : Fellas, this might be my favorite prop of the season to this point. Micah Shrewsberry now has full trust in his son to play big minutes for this team and get up a heavy volume of field goal attempts. It took a while for the freshman to find his footing in the college game, but he has been very impressive in the new year. Braeden’s averages still have not caught up to his recent production, so now is the time to attack his prop market before it gets inflated.
Shrewsberry has cleared 11.5 points in 7 of his last 10 games. He has also connected on at least two three pointers in ALL 10 of these games. He is averaging 3.2 three point makes on 6.8 attempts per game during this stretch. Georgia Tech is 215th in the country in Open 3 Rate allowed on defense per Shot Quality. They are also 164th in the country in percentage of points allowed from threes. I expect another heavy volume night for Braeden. To further prove the sentiment above, here is where Shrewsberry ranks in the three point percentiles per Shot Quality:
The spacing percentile is important to note as well due to the Open 3 Rate defensive metric from the Yellow Jackets. Braeden will have some great looks tonight.
The minutes and volume of shots are there. The matchup is there. I love this play. This is another Best Bet.
Score Prediction: Braeden Shrewsberry 16 points
Wyoming +7 : This line has moved to 8 at most places. It is not surprising to see people interested in grabbing Utah State as a single digit favorite. However, I love this play and would definitely endorse the better number in the marketplace right now as well.
Laramie is not an easy place to walk in and win as a road favorite. The Cowboys are 3-1 ATS as a home underdog this season. Two very good teams have lost outright this year in Laramie laying a similar number as Utah State. Nevada and Colorado State both lost outright as 7.5 point favorites. Also, the Aggies are only 1-2-1 ATS as a road favorite this season. I think this is a great spot for us to back the Cowboys.
Not a ton of basketball analysis here. This is just a situational spot that I love. I am happy with my +7 ticket and will probably add a little more wherever this number lands. Go Cowboys!
Score Prediction: Utah State 77 – Wyoming 72
Best of luck! Let’s snipe!!
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