(photo: American University Athletics)
3/7 Card:
American -5 (7:00pm ET – ESPN+)
IPFW +4 (7:00pm – ESPN+)
UCLA +9 (9:30pm – ESPN)
SIUE +10 (10:00pm – ESPN+)
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American -5 : Matt Rogers game loading …
American lost their regular season finale over the weekend to Navy. That made it 4 straight losses at home and a spoiled Senior Night for Matt Rogers. It looks like this team is on a downward spiral on the surface. ShotQuality shows a different story.
American has won the SQ score in 9 out of their last 10 games. This includes a current streak of 6 in a row:
It is so apparent to see what the problem is when you watch American. This team is receiving a terrible luck on the defensive end. Their 1.03 SQ PPP allowed is some of the best you will see at the low mid-major level. Yet, they are allowing 1.11 PPP. That is the reason that their record isn’t more impressive than it is. I am convinced this is the 2nd best team in this conference. It is a common phrase that “It is hard to beat a team three times in a row”. No, it’s not. Bucknell is a great matchup for American. Their 0.96 SQ PPP on offense should lend to an impressive defensive performance from the Eagles today. The Bison also had major trouble defending Matt Rogers in the first two meetings. He averaged 16.5 pts / 6 reb / 4 ast in those games. The Patriot plays their tournament on home courts of the higher seeds. I just have a hard time believing that Matt Rogers will allow American to be in a situation where they could lose the last 5 home games of his career. I think we see a monster game from him today.
American is finally healthy and they are primed to give this Patriot tournament their best shot. I like them to win emphatically today. This is my Best Bet.
Score Prediction: American 69 – Bucknell 58
IPFW +4 : I am feeling pretty great about our +1300 ticket right now..
Head over to ShotQuality for Max’s breakdown on this one. Link below:
https://shotqualitybets.com/blog/college-basketball-picks-max-a-million-march-7
Score Prediction: IPFW 74 – Oakland 73
UCLA +9 : Stat of the day: UCLA is 3-0 ATS as a home underdog this year. If you expand that out further, the Bruins are 7-1 ATS as home dogs during Cronin’s tenure. There have been times during this season where Cronin has looked completely checked out with this group, but he always brings the heat for the big games.
The Bruins took Arizona to the brink at the McKale Center earlier this season. UCLA built out a 19 point lead in that game, but were unable to hold on and ultimately lost by 6. This propelled them into a really good spell of play. They won the SQ score in 8 straight games which helped them obtain a 6-2 record in that stretch. The Bruins then traveled to Washington and got convincingly swept by the Washington schools. However, I believe they will return back home to Pauley Pavilion tonight and give a great effort against a Top 5 team.
I am trusting in Mick to keep this one close with his X’s and O’s. Give me the points.
Score Prediction: Arizona 77 – UCLA 72
SIUE +10 : This play is not powered by analytics or trends. This a a feel play. I watched a little bit of the Cougars game last night with Eastern Illinois and they really impressed me. The energy was fantastic and they were lockdown on the defensive end. It’s March, so you always want the team you are backing to have superb guard play. SIUE has just that. Minor, Wright and Taylor went for a combined for 55 out of the Cougars 68 points. I think they can keep this game within double digits in a win or go home setting.
Score Prediction: Morehead State 72 – SIUE 65
Best of luck! Let’s snipe!!
threepointsniper.com 