(photo: Columbus Dispatch)
3/14 Card:
Michigan State -6.5 (12:00pm ET – BTN)
Arizona -8.5 (3:00pm – PAC12)
Ohio St./Iowa under 154 (6:30pm – BTN)
Villanova +4 (9:30pm – FS1)
UGA/UF under 155.5 (9:30pm – SECN)
New Mexico +1.5 (11:30pm – CBSSN)
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Michigan State -6.5 : Will try to keep this article short and concise since we have a lengthy card. This game is being played in Minneapolis and this has a lot of the public jazzed up to back one of the best ATS darlings of the season. However, the Gophers are on a downward spiral. Minnesota is 1-4 straight up and ATS in their last 5. There are rumors circling about Dawson Garcia courting NIL offers behind the scenes. Could this be the reason? Whatever it may be, they are consistently showing no fight in 2H’s during this rough patch. Tom Izzo will take advantage of that today in a situation where he needs to boost their resume metrics. Michigan State split with the Gophers in the season series, but Shot Quality graded both games as a Michigan State win. I like Sparty by double digits this afternoon.
Score Prediction: Michigan State 74 – Minnesota 64
Arizona -8.5 : The Trojans have been great to us during this late season surge once they returned to full health. Today is the day where we finally get off of the wagon. Arizona is primed to take revenge for their loss to the Trojans over the weekend. The Wildcats actually won that game on the SQ score (75-71). Arizona’s SQ profile is just so impressive. They are 3rd in the overall adjusted SQ rating (7th in offense, 4th in defense). The Wildcats are averaging 1.20 SQ PPP on offense, while only allowing 1.01 on defense. The Trojans are are 1.08 on both ends of the court. The class of Arizona will be too much today. I am backing them to win big in this immediate revenge spot.
Score Prediction: Arizona 85 – USC 72
Ohio State/Iowa under 154 : Iowa’s Big Ten Tournament openers have gone under in 3 out of their last 4. This includes last year’s matchup against Ohio State that finished on 142 points with a 151.5 closing total in Vegas. Fran McCaffery tends to run more sets instead of “run and gun” in these do or die scenarios. Fewer possessions might not be a great thing today. This Ohio State defense is the real deal under Diebler. The energy is through the roof and they are finally taking pride in stopping their opponents again. Below are their last 4 defensive performances:
- Michigan State – 57 points
- Nebraska – 69 points
- Michigan – 61 points
- Rutgers – 51 points
My prediction is that Iowa plays slower than their norm and that Ohio State’s defense continues to rock out. This is a Best Bet. This is also ShotQuality approved with a predicted final of 143.6.
Score Prediction: Ohio State 75 – Iowa 73
Villanova +4 : This is going to make you uncomfortable after yesterday’s stinker against DePaul. That is ok. That is what Vegas wants you to feel. Villanova has shown time and time again this season that we should not get too high or too low on them based on their wins and losses. That is my angle today with this short spread. The Wildcats tend to play to the level of their opponent. Marquette will get their juices flowing and I think we see a spirited effort today from this veteran group. The Golden Eagles are still trying to get healthy before next week. That is what means the most to them at this point. Without Kolek, I like Villanova’s chances to get a big win and firmly put their name in the field of 68. This is my second Best Bet.
Score Prediction: Villanova 71 – Marquette 69
UGA/UF under 155.5 : This is another game that may make you feel uncomfortable. These teams reached 200 & 170 points in their first two meetings this year. The pace and efficiency was through the roof. Tournament time always tightens up the pace and hampers efficiency so I think there is room to attack an under here. Florida’s rim protection *should* be able to dominate today more than they have in the recent meetings. I also think that UGA has the perimeter defense to bother Clayton and Pullin a bit. I had this game at 151 and will be happy to step in here and buck the trend from the previous two meetings this season. Go defense!
Score Prediction: Florida 79 – UGA 72
New Mexico +1.5 : Guard play, Guard play, Guard play. The Lobos have a very heavy edge in guard play in this matchup in my opinion. That is what you want in March. I am stunned that they got swept in the season series by Boise State. With the Broncos safely in the field and New Mexico still fighting for a birth, I like New Mexico to get some revenge and pick up a massive win for their resume.
Score Prediction: New Mexico 76 – Boise State 73
Best of luck! Let’s snipe!!
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